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Pattern Januworry

GaWx said:
In combo with the rising PNA, it is hard as a cold lover to not like these:

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Noticing a few members now want to take it through low amp phase 1 and 2. The good thing I see is that it’s staying on the left side which is obviously what we want. I know a lot of people were playing down the importance of the MJO last week with how bleak the models were looking and there are certainly other pieces of the puzzle, but I’m a firm believer now that it’s the single most important index in a LaNina… what happened with the pattern last February made be a believer of that. Obviously the models are seeing us going into phase 8 and are responding to more troughs in the east
 
Chazwin said:
What’s your reasoning on that? I’m not saying that those highs will definitely verify, but there’s certainly a lot of ensemble support right now that well below average high temperatures is in the cards for that week.
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1046 sitting over the central US at d10 on the euro with below 0 dews on the doorstep of the region. We get the pattern the gfs/euro are advertising we are going to see the coldest temps in years (since 2018) for NC/SC/GA
 
SD said:
1046 sitting over the central US at d10 on the euro with below 0 dews on the doorstep of the region. We get the pattern the gfs/euro are advertising we are going to see the coldest temps in years (since 2018) for NC/SC/GA
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Lol then there’s this at hour 150, high around/below freezing 821F34A2-4654-4282-B311-FEED1D3E54C1.png
 
SD said:
1046 sitting over the central US at d10 on the euro with below 0 dews on the doorstep of the region. We get the pattern the gfs/euro are advertising we are going to see the coldest temps in years (since 2018) for NC/SC/GA
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I agree completely, and as I said it’s not just operationals doing goofy things, as there is lot of support in the ensembles for it. One thing I would watch for that time is something trying to develop along the front if it stalls near the Gulf Coast… perhaps a weak wave, but with that type of airmass in place you can see nice widespread 2-4 inch type event
 
SD said:
1046 sitting over the central US at d10 on the euro with below 0 dews on the doorstep of the region. We get the pattern the gfs/euro are advertising we are going to see the coldest temps in years (since 2018) for NC/SC/GA
Click to expand...
AFD this afternoon said the next cold shot here mid/late week, will be colder than the next day or two here. We touch 30 on Tuesday and then go basically 20 highs and -5 to 10 lows for the next 10-15 days! That can only benefit y’all down the line!
 
Chazwin said:
I agree completely, and as I said it’s not just operationals doing goofy things, as there is lot of support in the ensembles for it. One thing I would watch for that time is something trying to develop along the front if it stalls near the Gulf Coast… perhaps a weak wave, but with that type of airmass in place you can see nice widespread 2-4 inch type event
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Indeed, look at all of the members with 1045+ mb highs in red: this is believable based on the MJO forecast:

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SD said:
That 18z gfs run was probably the most exciting but infuriating thing I've seen. Great hemispheric pattern right through 384 but warms up to rain with almost every system.
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I haven't looked yet. Let me guess, no -NAO and an annoying WAR? :)
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
I didn’t realize the gefs was this good for this system, if the euro could hop on to the cho cho weenie train, then this might need a thread in a day or 2, another interesting look for the same areas we’re watching with Monday mornings system View attachment 100818View attachment 100819
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Although this is a bit different evolution than our current one I do worry about more amplification and such going NW with this system if we’re starting here .. but we will see how far that cold air initially can push through I think the more it can push through the further south the snow could end up
 
Tarheel1 said:
AFD this afternoon said the next cold shot here mid/late week, will be colder than the next day or two here. We touch 30 on Tuesday and then go basically 20 highs and -5 to 10 lows for the next 10-15 days! That can only benefit y’all down the line!
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217F24E9-B71C-4338-ABDF-868832FEB9B7.png99DE89D1-4650-4326-A725-7B25100D34D6.png
 
14 - 94F in TX this afternoon, those are surface temps, it’s been cooking and max CONUS departure today was >115F, MN and TX. It’s really just the evolution of a pattern change that gave BC historic flooding, Pac NW and CA snow, CO rapidly moving wildfires with 100+ mph winds, east, and it sets up a active pattern with multiple systems and a very cold air supply to work with in the SE over the coming weeks.
 
mrdaddyman said:
I haven't looked yet. Let me guess, no -NAO and an annoying WAR? :)
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No war they don't make them much colder than that 18z run for us. But the lack of a -nao and poor timing means no snow. Going to have to time things right in a +pna/+nao look and run for cover 24 hours before the event
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SD said:
No war they don't make them much colder than that 18z run for us. But the lack of a -nao and poor timing means no snow. Going to have to time things right in a +pna/+nao look and run for cover 24 hours before the event
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Yeah, I know Matthew East once said on the other board that even if everything else is going right, here in the south you still got to have good timing. Overall I think we’ll all take our chances with the pattern the models have been trending towards the last few days
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah, I know Matthew East once said on the other board that even if everything else is going right, here in the south you still got to have good timing. Overall I think we’ll all take our chances with the pattern the models have been trending towards the last few days
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I'm really excited about what the models have overall. These big pac ridge cold Hudson/Davis strait vortex looks haven't been terrible in the past. I wouldn't be shocked if we tried to tack on some -nao toward the end of this pattern 1/20ish
 
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GaWx said:
Models are hinting that there will be 3 different Arctic highs likely to come down between 1/7 and 1/20 to bring cold to the SE before any January thaw. Two of those highs are a near lock now.
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Hey GaWx love your insight. Wasn't January 21, 1985,, a day I will never forget in Atlanta, a La Nina year? Temps dropped from 56 to 14 in about 4 hours then down to -8 at KATL, I had -11..
 
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SD said:
No war they don't make them much colder than that 18z run for us. But the lack of a -nao and poor timing means no snow. Going to have to time things right in a +pna/+nao look and run for cover 24 hours before the event
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True but glad to see the cold. Will worry about other things later. We know it definitely won't snow at 79 degrees. We may yet see a -NAO pop up.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I didn’t realize the gefs was this good for this system, if the euro could hop on to the cho cho weenie train, then this might need a thread in a day or 2, another interesting look for the same areas we’re watching with Monday mornings system View attachment 100818View attachment 100819
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To me, the darker blue colors on the ensemble snow mean outlines where the threat really is. For my back yard for me to take notice of a threat, generally I'm looking for the 2 inch mean south to at least rock hill, sc. That one looks like another Virginia storm right now.
 
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