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Pattern Januworry

Can the Carolinas ever get a winter storm without a wedge in place ? That's kind of cheating. ?
Sort of need it. Some places in Climo favored spots in the northern and eastern portions of NC can score with the initial cold push. Mountains make make it hard for those in the shadow of them. But most of us need it locked in place for a “good” snow.
 
Trends this weekend toward a much colder January overall vs December have been amazingly good on the globals and the CFS! If this is another headfake, I’m giving up lol. Last Saturday’s headfake caved on Sunday. This time, it isn’t just not caving today, it is intensifying. Guidance is even showing signs especially on the EPS toward a more neutral PNA by late week 2 with an Aleutian trough/+PNA quite possible around the 2 week point or soon after. One thing I suspect is helping a lot is a much improved GEFS AO forecast, which as of just a few days ago was heading to neutral:

33E9FC63-80E1-44A0-B7BE-0285A948EA3F.gif

The NAO forecast even looks slightly better with neutral rather than slight positive late.
So, -AO with a new +PNA and soon after maybe a phase 8-1-2 MJO possibly low amplitude? Thats all promising for it not being a headfake.
 
Trends this weekend toward a much colder January overall vs December have been amazingly good on the globals and the CFS! If this is another headfake, I’m giving up lol. Last Saturday’s headfake caved on Sunday. This time, it isn’t just not caving today, it is intensifying. Guidance is even showing signs especially on the EPS toward a more neutral PNA by late week 2 with an Aleutian trough/+PNA quite possible around the 2 week point or soon after. One thing I suspect is helping a lot is a much improved GEFS AO forecast, which as of just a few days ago was heading to neutral:

View attachment 99269

The NAO forecast even looks slightly better with neutral rather than slight positive late.
So, -AO with a new +PNA and soon after maybe a phase 8-1-2 MJO possibly low amplitude? Thats all promising for it not being a headfake.
The PNA has slowly been trending less negative over the past couple of days, so hopefully no more headfakes!
 
Relax guys. The artic air will come in January. And it’s not gonna be just a cold shot here or there it’s gonna be legit. The pattern is going to change rapidly and catch some off guard. You will start to see it reflect in the models this coming weekend. Be patient.
Wow, Euro with a massive abrupt pattern change. If it verified, it would be some Midwest type stuff. Severe weather to back side snow. 70s for highs one day to 40s or lower for highs the next.
Nobody wanted to listen.
 
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