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Pattern Januworry

12z GEFS long range - Woah, look at the massive blocking over Russia and all over the pole with a very minimal southeastern ridge! If this verifies, it may get brutally cold during the 2nd week.
e74b0ce9c52fbd44be2cbe27d1f94573.jpg
 
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12z GEFS long range - Woah, look at the massive blocking over Russia and all over the pole with very minimal southeastern ridge! If this verifies, it may get brutally cold during the 2nd week.
e74b0ce9c52fbd44be2cbe27d1f94573.jpg
We're not going to get brutally cold unless and until that ridge through the Aleutians pulls up stakes and heads out. I didn't play the animation, so maybe it's in progress. But that ridge gotta go.
 
Not to mention just how shallow does the freezing layer have to be for it not to be sleet? 200 feet or so?
I think that depends on how cold it is in the layers above the surface. If it's 70's at 5,000 ft, you will need more time to freeze the water droplets and more depth.
 
Oh no, here we go again. J/k, this is just the very tossable HH run. So, we toss. Haven’t tossed in awhile. So, we’ve earned extra tosses.
We don’t toss this!EA73F8AA-6AD1-4A97-8738-28C2FAC137AE.png
 
Eww this is a ugly change in the GOAView attachment 99304
Not this again. With Februay usually being known as a warm month for the SE during La Nina seasons, we can't afford to kick the can down the road much. Thankfuly this just one GFS op run. I wait until we get into the 0z model runs before I starting freaking out or seeing this as a possible trend.
 
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