• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Januworry

Stephenb888 said:
What is upstate Sc’s chances with this system. None?
Click to expand...
Zero..not one single model or model run has had flake here. Cold air struggles to get over the mountains before the moisture and typically never does. That's why you here us harp on Cad so much. When the cold air gets locked in place which lately doesn't happen much either.
 
Unlike the Dec 8 storm that missed wide right and ended up being too warm, the cold air is in the vicinity and the subtropical branch of the jet is strong/dominant/very El Nino-like. We got some of the right basic ingredients in place to squeeze out an event for a small subset of the board & also get a last second NW/amping trend, which is arguably more critical for folks in the mid-Atlantic, but could be to the benefit for the coastal plain of NC.


250wind_anom_71.png
 
SnowNiner said:
Wow, that looks pretty great right there. I like the split flow look in the STJ to boot. Watch it be gone to poo next run but I like it! My guess is like has been mentioned GEFS sees phase 8. Bet EPS won't show anything like this because it hates us and loves 7.
Click to expand...
It wasn't that far away at 0z. Interestingly the 12z Canadian mean which had been more similar to the eps went toward this look late as well and is a fairly cold run overall
 
SD said:
View attachment 99986
View attachment 99987
Click to expand...
This looks really good. Almost like Jan/Feb 2014 pattern all over again. This might be enough to increase Winter storm chances even down to the I-20 areas. The question however, is the GEFS correct on showing this pattern change? The Euro and the EPS have quite cocncerning to say the least and shows much more of a Zonal flow?
 
Faco Thomas said:
This looks really good. Almost like Jan/Feb 2014 pattern all over again. This might be enough to increase Winter storm chances even down to the I-20 areas. The question however, is the GEFS correct on showing this pattern change? The Euro and the EPS have quite cocncerning to say the least and shows much more of a Zonal flow?
Click to expand...
I didn't think the 0z eps was that bad, it wasn't something that jumped off the page but it had good pieces in the right places. Certainly want to see if the 12z eps supports the changes in the gefs/geps today
 
Faco Thomas said:
This looks really good. Almost like Jan/Feb 2014 pattern all over again. This might be enough to increase Winter storm chances even down to the I-20 areas. The question however, is the GEFS correct on showing this pattern change? The Euro and the EPS have quite cocncerning to say the least and shows much more of a Zonal flow?
Click to expand...
I20 areas won’t be getting any winter weather this year. Just my opinion though.
 
Rain Cold said:
Pattern shown will probably want to send storms up the Apps with a reform off the coast verbatim. But we can definitely work with this.

View attachment 99995

16 days out so who knows. Fingers crossed!
Click to expand...
Yeah we would be fighting the good fight with no help in the Natl.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top