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Pattern Januworry

smast16 said:
I worded that wrong. We're gonna see cold dropping out of Canada for sure. Just on the wrong side of the Rockies.
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I think it is gonna bleed East, more and more modeling pointing at it. GBO!
Mr. Golf said:
Larry, if the alutian ridge dont break down or shift, its probably another head fake most likely. If it does, then we may be looking better
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tennessee storm said:
18z let’s not get to carrried away yet. Still ways out. Bet house n farm this won’t look same 0z tonite
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Oh please it is was warm severe you would be getting carried away at hour 384.?
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Seems to always be 300+ hours out
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I doubt this one is a mirage. Details remain to be seen but a monstrous arctic air mass will probably get unleashed onto N America during the 2nd week of January if any significant ridging goes north of Alaska, which is now shown on most ensembles. The Aleutian trough and remnant -NAO will both encourage whatever cold air gets dumped into the plains to come east at least intermittently
 
Webberweather53 said:
I don’t think here locally that’ll be true. More like extremely wild swings from mild-seasonable to bitterly cold possible. Not much room for in between or general consistency in a pattern like this
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Would need it to swing through and entrench. Verbatim its not ideal for the Carolinas. Definitely sets us the possibility for some overrunning down the line if we can find a way to let it bleed East and set up shop. This is all way out there but it’s something to talk about for the next 3-4 hours I guess.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The GFS is fixing to drop the motherload of Arctic air onto N America

View attachment 99178
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Looks like a quasi-omega block. As long as ridge extension remains in the Epac, the bulk of the cold will be directed west or central US. If we get/keep blocking in eastern Canada, we'll be cool here with that setup, but we probably won't get overly cold here for more than a day or so.

I'd love to see the bottom of the SW trough break off and retrograde west. Would pump a ridge over the western US and connect to the big EPO block, with an undercutting jet. Then we'd be ready to roll.
 
The pattern is is setting up nicely for overrunning which is perfect if you want snow. Typically don’t have to worry about a whole lot of mixed bag stuff. And usually a major swath of the southeast gets the snow. It just matters where the rain snow line sets up and everyone north of there from the western south to the southeast score.
 
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