West coast is pathetic for us.
GFS is starting to look like the EPS
And why is it over what's going against us?I think after this cold shot this weekend and one more next weekend, winter is over sadly. Too many things going against us unfortunately. Let's pray and hope next winter offers more opportunities for a favorable pattern and the Pacific is somewhat more improved.
Really?? ..... I certainly think not. I have never seen a winter (in my 57 years) that did not produce accumulating snow here and I have not gotten any yet. So, winter can't be over. Besides, we are only 9 days into winter.I think after this cold shot this weekend and one more next weekend, winter is over sadly. Too many things going against us unfortunately. Let's pray and hope next winter offers more opportunities for a favorable pattern and the Pacific is somewhat more improved.
Everything. Webber alluded to alot of things as we move past mid January. Just your typical niña fixing to really make an influence. Hope we cash in the next few weeksAnd why is it over what's going against us?
Looks just about like the 12z euro control and some level of just about every nina in early to mid January for a while. I'd be more concerned if we were just rolling through the same ---- we have seen for the past 4 weeksGFS is starting to look like the EPS
He also said that Nina was dying..... and would be gone before Spring.Everything. Webber alluded to alot of things as we move past mid January. Just your typical niña fixing to really make an influence. Hope we cash in the next few weeks
One thing we all forgot about …. SOIL TEMPERATUR
I actually have spots of bermuda still green today which I have never seen in 31 years of lawn care in Winston Salem areaThey need to go down or my bermuda is going to say hello. Let's pull these on Wednesday if we remember I'd bet they are back in the 40s
If you look at a good number of ninas they all feature big poleward ridge pushes and undercutting in the last week of Dec or the first half of January. You can draw your own conclusions from there but what we are seeing isn't that abnormal and somewhat expected. I'm not even saying it's going to get nut freezing cold or feet of snow buy Holy moly canceling winter before January based on an 18z gfs run is wildEverything. Webber alluded to alot of things as we move past mid January. Just your typical niña fixing to really make an influence. Hope we cash in the next few weeks
Cancel winter please
Mr. Golf already beat me to it.Cancel winter please
These are just my opinions. We are all entitled to them. ? Yall know how it is, eps picks up on changes and gefs follows suit more times than not. Hope I'm wrongIf you look at a good number of ninas they all feature big poleward ridge pushes and undercutting in the last week of Dec or the first half of January. You can draw your own conclusions from there but what we are seeing isn't that abnormal and somewhat expected
Very true, asphalt holds heat more than most realize. Last week of February 2009 it was near 60 degrees all week then it was cold for March 1st we had 9-11 inches on Friday melting as fast as we could plow it. Monday morning you couldn't find a snowball anywhere, no piles no nothingBack to the soil temps, those who live west of i77 can attest to the fact that winter storms that bring snow/ice on the roads for 1+ week plus are a different beast vs 6” snowfall on 61 degree soil temps might last 1 afternoon. We will take what we can get sure but we need cold air before during after plz
These are just my opinions. We are all entitled to them. ?
I agree SD. Perhaps we can get shifts that will lead to extended cold or a full shift for durable cold. Guess we shall seeDidn't say you weren't but don't post winter is over and not expect to get questioned. If I posted winter cancel or I think Jan will be snowy or I think Feb will be cold I'd expect to get questioned
It wasn't 18zgfs lol. It's just alot of people mentioning that same stuff I said with an unfavorable pattern after mid January with perhaps it lasting rest of winter.If you look at a good number of ninas they all feature big poleward ridge pushes and undercutting in the last week of Dec or the first half of January. You can draw your own conclusions from there but what we are seeing isn't that abnormal and somewhat expected. I'm not even saying it's going to get nut freezing cold or feet of snow buy Holy moly canceling winter before January based on an 18z gfs run is wild
It want take 24 hrs to knock those downI don’t care how hard it snows but 61 soil temps sucks we will lose up to 4”snowfall and be muddy mess underneath and very wet roads. We need a cold blast or two for sure we can still lower it down…overnight temps have been 30+ degrees above normal here!
You have to remember that there are no absolutes. People are smart and can articulate probabilities based on past data, but the atmosphere on January 30th really doesn't care very much what happened on January 30th 1945. There is a lot of winter left.It wasn't 18zgfs lol. It's just alot of people mentioning that same stuff I said with an unfavorable pattern after mid January with perhaps it lasting rest of winter.
It’s the South, you might get a solid week of wall to wall cold, once every 10 yearsI agree SD. Perhaps we can get shifts that will lead to extended cold or a full shift for durable cold. Guess we shall see
Improved even more for long long rangeI really honestly liked the look from last run much more but ig it’s still aight View attachment 100068View attachment 100069
Noticed the same thingA lot of GEFS members were close with a winter event also with the next big arctic front after this storm on Sunday
I alluded to that in the tropical thread.Wow. Happy Hour deterministic was such a train wreck in the long-range it even had a subtropical storm crossing S Florida.
Back to square one.View attachment 100083Problem ?
Trying to look at the MJO especially the extended is about worth as much as a fart in church! Will be different tomorrow and then the next day and the nextView attachment 100083Problem ?