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Pattern Januworry

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Anyone notice how much different ICON and GFS are after the clearance of this system??? Icon much more cold press
 
There likely will be with a pattern like this. I’m just wondering when or if it’ll get all the way here.
I still feel like if and when we get cold.....it might be wall to wall cold including you. I could see some PAC NW sliders coming down and rounding the southern 4 corners and into the southern plains.
 

Beautiful to see a trough cutting underneath the block over the Aleutians. Should favor more +PNA and cold sliding east thereafter. This is happening a little slower than I thought it would have, but good to see early-mid January is looking increasingly favorable on NWP
 
Indice-wise, nothing of significance has changed from when the models were showing a torch for early January (if anything, the GFS ensembles are now projecting a full fledged +NAO).

Not to say we won't see a transient cool down like last weekend, but I'm still not convinced that they're not pulling another okie-doke with respect to a large scale pattern change.

We'll see...
 
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Indice-wise, nothing of significance has changed from when the models were showing a torch for early January (if anything, the GFS ensembles now projecting a full fledged +NAO).

Not to say we won't see a transient cool down like last weekend, but I'm still not convinced that they're not pulling another okie-doke with respect to a large scale pattern change.

We'll see...
And the beat goes on...
 
Overall pattern is going the way we want it to towards the later part of the first week of January into the 2nd week. All you can ask for or should care about this far out, not worth worrying about any details yet til we get close to the medium range (day 7 ish). Will likely see a few storms get handed off to our north initially because the snow cover is still pretty anemic atm east of the Rockies.
 

Yep that’ll work
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