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Pattern Januworry

tennessee storm said:
Do think we are finally making some progress towards colder pattern … seems be some shake up in pacific models today
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The cold pattern is there, what's holding the cold back from the southeast is the southeastern/eastern ridge. It's just not features in the Pacfic, the upper PV would help out as well with a colder pattern across the southeast.
 
Keeping a watch on the upper PV (10mb) is helpful to watch for colder patterns. In the shorter term, there might be a slight cold push towards the east during the Jan. 01-02 time period as the southern portion of the upper PV wobbles towards the east (in figure i.)

ShorterRangeGEFS10mb.png Figure i. - GEFS, upper PV (10mb)

I don't think the cold push would be strong enough to cause winter weather due to a dominant southwest wind flow looking to setup next week into the New Year. The pattern late next week into the New Year is going to be like a strong El-Nino pattern with stale mild air and moist, with waves of rain. I'm beginning to think there could be a response from the ENSO. Over the past 7 days, the SSTs have been warming along the equatorial Pacific shown in figure ii. (We should keep an eye on this)

Screenshot_1.jpg
Figure ii. - SSTs along the equatorial Pacific

I don't believe the north Pacific ridge is going anywhere due to upper level ridging. As the upper PV evolves (and wobbles) the north Pacific ridge may translate a bit to the east favoring a -EPO pattern. I think a -EPO could form sometime during the 2nd week of January. Shown in figure iii. is the long range GEFS upper PV (10mb) and it shows that the PV is elongated nearly on a northwest to southeast axis that should favor a colder eastern US. There certainly could be a (or nearly) "wall-to-wall" cold at some point during the 2nd week of January.

LongRangeGEFS10mb.png
Figure iii. - Long range GEFS 10mb, vaild Jan. 9th.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
GFS after looks meh
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Overall it’s interesting .. definitely a new look than what we have been accustomed to the past few days of runs .. also check how much stronger the -NAO looks in the medium range .. things can get a lot more interesting the more we can keep that -NAO recent runs had it finally weakening as we get towards medium range now it’s flipped
 
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all my fellow weather weenies!

May the MJO, PNA, and NAO line up like a three-cherry slot machine and we're all complaining that we're running out of milk, bread, and beer to ring in the New Year.

modernweeniemodernweeniemodernweeniemodernweeniemodernweeniemodernweeniemodernweeniemodernweeniemodernweeniemodernweeniemodernweeniemodernweenie
 
I'm still not buying any substantial pattern change. They're always wonderful 240+ hrs out and then slowly trend / modify as we close in on 150 hrs.

Show me a green goblin or Barney dropping down out of Canada under 200hrs then I'll bite.
 
smast16 said:
I'm still not buying any substantial pattern change. They're always wonderful 240+ hrs out and then slowly trend / modify as we close in on 150 hrs.

Show me a green goblin or Barney dropping down out of Canada under 200hrs then I'll bite.
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There likely will be with a pattern like this. I’m just wondering when or if it’ll get all the way here.
 
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