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Pattern Januworry

Some maybe rooting for a +PNA, but I'd much rather see a -EPO with a netrual/slight +PNA. With a stronger +PNA signal, the risk would be involved of suppression and warming (warm air advection) ahead of a storm system. With a +PNA, eastern ridging can still build and storm systems would cut, with cold air in place in the middle of the country - no good for winter storm development in the southeast. With a -EPO, netrual to slight +PNA, there wouldn't be a strong suppression (into the Gulf) and the chance would be there for southern sliders with a cold dome in place to the north with plenty of deep cold air to work with. The long range GEFS is indicating a -EPO, with very minimal ridging across the lower southeast. (The second image is an example of a -EPO pattern - for the ones that aren't familiar.)
ac25a2f405cda43d059e03f7a5569f2e.jpg
11176bff089c2780321ba809c829e965.jpg
 
Some maybe rooting for a +PNA, but I'd much rather see a -EPO with a netrual/slight +PNA. With a stronger +PNA signal, the risk would be involved of suppression and warming (warm air advection) ahead of a storm system. With a +PNA, eastern ridging can still build and storm systems would cut, with cold air in place in the middle of the country - no good for winter storm development in the southeast. With a -EPO, netrual to slight +PNA, there wouldn't be a strong suppression (into the Gulf) and the chance would be there for southern sliders with a cold dome in place to the north with plenty of deep cold air to work with. The long range GEFS is indicating a -EPO, with very minimal ridging across the lower southeast. (The second image is an example of a -EPO pattern - for the ones that aren't familiar.)
ac25a2f405cda43d059e03f7a5569f2e.jpg
11176bff089c2780321ba809c829e965.jpg
Not me, give me a +PNA over any other look by a mile.
 
Not me, give me a +PNA over any other look by a mile.

Yeah, that might be good for folks in TN and NC, but for those further south in places like Atlanta, Columbia, Birmingham, give me a negative PNA anyday...I'll take my chances with suppression in the gulf over hoping the boundary of a more flat cold trough makes it far enough south for wintry overrunning precip.
 
What is interesting to me is, usually when. We are cold the west is warm and vice versa. However this year we might see where the cold tries to stay out west and then go wall to wall balls to the wall cold across the entire country.

Don't like how the SER is still flexing. A fine line with a lot of cold rain.


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