That is close to being really cold.
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Pattern Januworry
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
StormWatch
Member
Some maybe rooting for a +PNA, but I'd much rather see a -EPO with a netrual/slight +PNA. With a stronger +PNA signal, the risk would be involved of suppression and warming (warm air advection) ahead of a storm system. With a +PNA, eastern ridging can still build and storm systems would cut, with cold air in place in the middle of the country - no good for winter storm development in the southeast. With a -EPO, netrual to slight +PNA, there wouldn't be a strong suppression (into the Gulf) and the chance would be there for southern sliders with a cold dome in place to the north with plenty of deep cold air to work with. The long range GEFS is indicating a -EPO, with very minimal ridging across the lower southeast. (The second image is an example of a -EPO pattern - for the ones that aren't familiar.)
Not me, give me a +PNA over any other look by a mile.Some maybe rooting for a +PNA, but I'd much rather see a -EPO with a netrual/slight +PNA. With a stronger +PNA signal, the risk would be involved of suppression and warming (warm air advection) ahead of a storm system. With a +PNA, eastern ridging can still build and storm systems would cut, with cold air in place in the middle of the country - no good for winter storm development in the southeast. With a -EPO, netrual to slight +PNA, there wouldn't be a strong suppression (into the Gulf) and the chance would be there for southern sliders with a cold dome in place to the north with plenty of deep cold air to work with. The long range GEFS is indicating a -EPO, with very minimal ridging across the lower southeast. (The second image is an example of a -EPO pattern - for the ones that aren't familiar.)
Brent
Member
LovingGulfLows
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Yeah, that might be good for folks in TN and NC, but for those further south in places like Atlanta, Columbia, Birmingham, give me a negative PNA anyday...I'll take my chances with suppression in the gulf over hoping the boundary of a more flat cold trough makes it far enough south for wintry overrunning precip.
What is interesting to me is, usually when. We are cold the west is warm and vice versa. However this year we might see where the cold tries to stay out west and then go wall to wall balls to the wall cold across the entire country.
BHS1975
Member
Don't like how the SER is still flexing. A fine line with a lot of cold rain.
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Late weenie run on gfs. 
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
??
West of app special. Long range on GFS.
Brent
Member
??? fortunately this is 330 hours 
Gefs looks solid with the cool Shot but looks worse in the long range
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I feel like we're going to get some chances in January. Hope we can keep the -NAO around even if we keep the +PNA.
Eh it’s long range no biggie
tennessee storm
Member
You mean keep a negative pna. Which is now
tennessee storm
Member
Do think we are finally making some progress towards colder pattern … seems be some shake up in pacific models today
Brent
Member
That's the talk out here for sure. I guess the big questions are how far east does it get and does it actually last
olhausen
Member
I believe you mean unfortunately ???