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Pattern Januworry

NickyBGuarantee said:
It’s eh afterwords seasonal like rain cold said but I love to see no deep troughing off the west coast and instead some +PNA … would at least lean any new cold air coming down towards central and eastern US more than it has been
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Yeah, the vort off California wound up phased instead of the trough continental trough getting out ahead like I thought it might.
gfs_z500a_namer_50.png
 
Models still seem to be struggling with the pattern after this weekend, mostly with the extent of blocking in the Atlantic.
 
Flotown said:
I personally like it but I get your point
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I like it too, heck it’s just pictures and it’s winter weather. We have to listen to some folks cheer for warm in a winter thread or be constantly negative but I can also ignore it because they have a right to be pessimistic like I do to be optimistic. He doesn’t gloat about it, and if that region is cold it is the direction our cold comes from. I am pulling for more good snowfall for him we need that snowpack to our north to continue to build.
 
Poimen said:
I keep asking for someone to show me evidence of a sustained wintry pattern for the SE and no one has yet to provide said evidence.
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We live in the southeast where we almost never have more then 2 weeks of sustained wintery pattern in any year. That Said it looks a lot better then it did 2 weeks ago right? After Saturday the gfs doesn’t have me reaching 50 degrees for a high even one time through the end of the run. I’ll take that all day seeing as it’s been hard to get a low of 50 degrees for much of December.
 
Chazwin said:
Looking at those two months, you can see why if you’re a snow lover in the NC, upstate SC, northern GA, and Tennessee, you don’t want cold to completely dominate a pattern. Most of that stretch was very dry for those areas.
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But if you live in S AL, S GA, SE SC, and in FL, 1976-7 was historic in terms of being the coldest winter on record (which right there is obviously very noteworthy as it isn’t just about wintry precip in our discussions), but it also gave some areas actual rare accumulating snow. Moreover, my area and others nearby had not just one but 2 accumulating snows and even an additional day of flurries. That hadn’t happened in over 100 years prior (1851-2 had two accumulating snows).
 
LovingGulfLows said:
2013-2014 was a very solid winter pattern as well. That was to me the last great winter, at least for my area.
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Chazwin said:
Even in both of those winters there were fairly long stretches of mild weather. Much of January 2010 was mild after the first week until we saw the pattern change in the last few days and we had a major storm as soon as cold returned. Even as good as February 2014 was KCLT still ended 1 degree above average for the month. In my memory, I don’t think any winters had true wall to wall cold in the southeast in my memory… I do hear people talk about ‘76-77, but that’s to far back for me to remember, even still if one were to look up the data that winter probably has some mild periods as well… we are in the south after all.
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Yeah there is no such thing as true wall to wall cold, all highs below 45 and all lows below 30 (Nov through March), for this part of the country. 09-10 and 13-14 were both pretty good for us. I still think 95-96 was the best for my backyard. I can remember sleet in early November, and heavy freezes in late April that year. Had multiple accumulations and the last time I saw below zero IMBY. Interestingly is also warmed to 80 or 81 that Feb, but that was just an unusual front that heated things up for a day or to but the rest of the month was quite cold. I'd take another year like that any winter.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
+PNA trends continue on the 12z EURO
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Looks like it ends up with zonal flow. The run-to-run changes on the EURO beyond 5 days are LOL with every run.

At least the modeling is unanimous with displacing that godawful Aleutian ridge within the believability range of 5-7 days. Lots of modeling mayhem with the apparent pattern change about to happen.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Now this isn’t ideal View attachment 99709
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Seems like a legit possibility. Doesn't kill the eventual turn to colder but delays it as we go into a warm/cool cycle as systems are directed to our north. I think I said this yesterday that the cooler faster eps had more fail points than the gfs gefs which were slower but cleaner in the npac.
 
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SD said:
Seems like a legit possibility. Doesn't kill the eventual turn to colder but delays it as we go into a warm/cool cycle as systems are directed to our north. I think I said this yesterday that the cooler faster eps had more fail points than the gfs gefs which were slower but cleaner in the npac.
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Yep it’s problematic B0B60004-CABC-470E-99EA-FC59ABE8010C.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep it’s problematic View attachment 99715
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Should start to see more pna after that frame may even get more of a rockies ridge. The good thing is with the pac jet extended so far east on the eps it'll eventually retract and we make a run at a big pac ridge in time regardless we may have found a new way to turn the pattern mediocre for another week
 
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