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Pattern Januworry

Nice day at the beach . Near 80 in Wilmington mid 60s here at Wrightsville along the shore. I had to go to the beach at least once figured today. Shoulda waited till Wednesday , gon be even warmer along the shore .
 
SD said:
This yields a big difference across the conus
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The key is the recovering heights off of the west coast there’s the big difference in both .. lower heights on the Gfs keeps it dumping out west and opens up the SER .. on the euro they are nowhere to be seen so cold air progresses East and keeps a lid on the tremendous ridging
 
whatalife said:
@Rain Cold says go with the GEFS. ;)
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The EPS has sucked this winter so far. And the GEFS seems to be similar to what we had so far. Want to lay odds on who turns out to be more correct lol

I'm disappointed by the non-obliteration of that ridge axis through the Aleutians. Hopefully that will change. It seems to be showing on both models but the Euro has the strongest anomaly to the north and set up as a block, which allows some shallow ridging across the extreme SW US....creates a broad trough. I still don't like the main ridge axis where it is, though, through the Aleutians.
 
Rain Cold said:
The EPS has sucked this winter so far. And the GEFS seems to be similar to what we had so far. Want to lay odds on who turns out to be more correct lol

I'm disappointed by the non-obliteration of that ridge axis through the Aleutians. Hopefully that will change. It seems to be showing on both models but the Euro has the strongest anomaly to the north and set up as a block, which allows some shallow ridging across the extreme SW US....creates a broad trough. I still don't like the main ridge axis where it is, though, through the Aleutians.
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I seem to recall the Euro was consistently warm this month while the GFS kept trying to break down and flip the pattern very early. That said, neither are great after D7 and I give little weight to either solution until the storm next weekend passes.
 
5 day mean. D10-15.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Still not giving up on the weekend here

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Of primary concern in the extended period is the potential for a
very strong cold front to enter the area early Saturday and
plunge through the region. There is the potential for wintry
precipitation behind the front as temperatures fall or begin to
fall during the day in all but far southeast Oklahoma...falling there
Saturday night. Model consistency remain limited at the moment,
so details aren`t possible at this point. But the odds are tipping
toward much colder air coming into all of eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas, with two disturbances crossing the central U.S.
that could result in precipitation in eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas in the cold air.
 
I saw sprinklers running over semi green Bermuda grass . This drought real . Sprinklers in the winter !
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
But would the ratio actually be 10:1 ?
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I actually don’t really care about the snow it’s showing as it’s unlikely to be anywhere near what the model is showing. At this point I care much more about the cold coming and knocking this warmth out which is way more likely then the snow. I won’t be shocked however if this area sees some flakes fly on Sunday night into Monday that add up to a dusting. Middle Tennessee has not seen a flake yet so it’s bound to happen sooner then later .
 
olhausen said:
I actually don’t really care about the snow it’s showing as it’s unlikely to be anywhere near what the model is showing. At this point I care much more about the cold coming and knocking this warmth out which is way more likely then the snow. I won’t be shocked however if this area sees some flakes fly on Sunday night into Monday that add up to a dusting. Middle Tennessee has not seen a flake yet so it’s bound to happen sooner then later .
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Yeah, just get us back to normal temperatures averaged out over a couple of weeks. That’s all I need to be content.

Good news is that new Euro weeklies are a bit colder for 1/13-23 for the SE vs the prior run due to less -PNA/more +PNA though they continue to show no -AO or -NAO. For the last 3 weeks of January, it has the SE averaging near +1.5 vs 1991-2020 climo, which I’d take in a heartbeat especially compared to the current torch. That compares to the +3 of the Thursday run and would mean a pretty normal January overall, but will it verify? The weeklies I believe have a bit of a warm bias but OTOH models have been solidly cold biased this month overall. So, I just hope it is close to reality and that the SER doesn’t try to rear its ugly head too much.
 
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GaWx said:
Yeah, just get us back to normal temperatures averaged out over a couple of weeks. That’s all I need to be content.

Good news is that new Euro weeklies are a bit colder for 1/13-23 for the SE vs the prior run due to less -PNA/more +PNA though they continue to show no -AO or -NAO. For the last 3 weeks of January, it has the SE averaging near +1.5 vs 1991-2020 climo, which I’d take in a heartbeat especially compared to the current torch. That compares to the +3 of the Thursday run and would mean a pretty normal January overall, but will it verify? The weeklies I believe have a bit of a warm bias but OTOH models have been solidly cold biased this month overall. So, I just hope it is close to reality and that the SER doesn’t try to rear its ugly head too much.
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Being. Dealing with a La Niña we’re going be dealing with a ser. Bet on that
 
Gfs says severe weather turns to backside snow… would be a wild weather event for some .. this looks to be the next storm to track .. severe or snow someone is getting something of the sorts. All models have some sort of back side system trying to take over at the southern Tail of the cold front .. interesting to see how it turns out .. might be one of those create it’s own cold air things
 
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