• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Januworry

This la nina is killing us. Remember the past years where we would get a constant +PNA and couldn't buy a negative NAO. During those times we would still score a storm or two; and at least see a cold weather pattern. Right now, the PNA looks to stay negative for the foreseeable future. Trough stays out west and the SER stays in the SE.
aaaa1.jpg
 
FallsLake said:
This la nina is killing us. Remember the past years where we would get a constant +PNA and couldn't buy a negative NAO. During those times we would still score a storm or two; and at least see a cold weather pattern. Right now, the PNA looks to stay negative for the foreseeable future. Trough stays out west and the SER stays in the SE.
View attachment 99371
Click to expand...

As Michael Clark at BAMWx said in this morning’s video that was posted here, the SER is likely going to be in play for the S and E US for the foreseeable future as it gets colder in the Midwest. How much it will resist the cold is the big question. If it gives way enough, we might get some decent cold dominating at times (just as looks to be the case the first half of next week). He showed storm tracks in the Ohio Valley based on the SER not giving way. But even with that, I’d think Carolina (and maybe N GA) CAD regions could get lucky with some ZR. A classic Miller A Gulf snow storm type track doesn’t appear likely as long as the SER fights though.

At the very least, this could mean some generous rain for the upper SE where it is badly needed as it does look stormy due to the battle of the airmasses.

Maybe once we get to MJO phase 8 the SER will give way more.

Edited: corrected for cold first half of next week, not latter half.
 
Last edited:
SD said:
If you guys want to discuss sun angle, how cold it needs to be to see snow accumulate, or whatever trivial thing you want to about snow accumulations please feel free to go to whamby with it. 2 recent examples that prove that snow can stick to roads and/or stick to the ground after Feb 15th or a torch month are Feb 2015 and March 2018 imby and I'm sure others have examples as well. Thanks
Click to expand...
I think folks are trying to be funny on here. Hopefully the later suites get us excited and all of today's nonsense will vanish quickly.
 
GaWx said:
As Michael Clark at BAMWx said in this morning’s video that was posted here, the SER is likely going to be in play for the S and E US for the foreseeable future as it gets colder in the Midwest. How much it will resist the cold is the big question. If it gives way enough, we might get some decent cold dominating at times (just as looks to be the case the latter half of next week). He showed storm tracks in the Ohio Valley based on the SER not giving way. But even with that, I’d think Carolina (and maybe N GA) CAD regions could get lucky with some ZR. A classic Miller A Gulf snow storm type track doesn’t appear likely as long as the SER fights though.
Click to expand...
I suspect we see an Apps runner similar to last February at some point this winter, giving middle and west TN ice or snow.
 
GaWx said:
As Michael Clark at BAMWx said in this morning’s video that was posted here, the SER is likely going to be in play for the S and E US for the foreseeable future as it gets colder in the Midwest. How much it will resist the cold is the big question. If it gives way enough, we might get some decent cold dominating at times (just as looks to be the case the latter half of next week). He showed storm tracks in the Ohio Valley based on the SER not giving way. But even with that, I’d think Carolina (and maybe N GA) CAD regions could get lucky with some ZR. A classic Miller A Gulf snow storm type track doesn’t appear likely as long as the SER fights though.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I'm not giving up. That's a lot of cold air to our NW. We just need a good CAD setup. Don't think miller A type storms are going to be available --> except maybe if we do get that mid-winter (short term) flip or an early March miracle when the overall pattern starts relaxing.
 
Poimen said:
What is it about the upcoming pattern that looks good to you that would support a genuinely cold and snowy pattern in the SE? What evidence is there to conclude that such a pattern will actually materialize beyond a brief cold shot?
Click to expand...
This has shown up for 2 runs in a row for this upcoming Sunday so there’s that.
446F7AF7-E555-4C8D-8458-894641B18053.png70F9343B-B515-4180-812E-A70FBE42EB98.png
There’s no doubt change is coming at least away from this god awful record setting warmth day in and day out. Weather or not it will stay for a while is obviously still up in the air. Either way the major warmth looks to be coming to an end starting this Sunday.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top