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Pattern Januworry

GaWx said:
It is now weenie talk time. I say weenie because it involves 1984-5:

1. For SAV among other places, Dec 2021 will end up warmer than Nov 2021 by a whopping ~3F per current forecasts. The only time back to the 1870s that Dec ended up more than 3 warmer than Nov was 1984, when it was 3.7 warmer.

2. For RDU and ATL, forecasts have Dec slightly warmer than Nov. In 1984, Dec was also warmer than Nov. (by the biggest amount on record at RDU and the 3rd biggest at ATL).

3. After a BN Nov of 1984, Dec of 1984 was one of the warmest on record at all 3 and even warmer than the forecast for Dec of 2021.

4. The last half of Dec of 1984 had a strong -PNA, strong +NAO, and +AO. The MJO was in phase 5 and then 6. There was a -EPO.

5. Jan had -EPO, a strong +PNA and -NAO, and a very strong -AO.

6. ENSO of late 1984 was very similar to that of now. Also, it, too, was a 2nd year La Niña.

7. January of 1985 was extreme I realize. So, expecting a repeat in January of 2022 would still be quite weenie even with these many strong similarities in 2021 preceding it. But who’s to say that at least part of January of 2022 won’t slightly resemble January of 1985?

End of weenie talk.

PS it is pretty obvious that we go from -PNA to +PNA to best resemble January of 1985’s indices.
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I like that kind of weenie talk.
 
Broken024 said:
Snow from Houston to NY. Nothing this way so far. Interesting look though
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I don’t want to call it an anafront but I think that’s what it is. Temp gradient is razor sharp. That would be some cold cold air dropping down. If only we could get something inside 300. Then 200. Then 150. That’d be nice.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I don’t want to call it an anafront but I think that’s what it is. Temp gradient is razed sharp. That would be some cold cold air dropping down. If only we could get something inside 300. Then 200. Then 150. That’d be nice.
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I could something like that actually happening this year. We have had quite a few of analfronts this year with the rain behind them.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I don’t want to call it an anafront but I think that’s what it is. Temp gradient is razor sharp. That would be some cold cold air dropping down. If only we could get something inside 300. Then 200. Then 150. That’d be nice.
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Haha yea who knows. Nothing gets anal front status at 300+ hours. Chasing the dragon here.
 
0Z GEFS is largely lackluster for most of its run but it looks like it might try to look nice near the end of the run. Fingers crossed.

Edit: indeed, looks nice pretty late ?
 
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There is no favorable phase anymore, things don't work like they used too and as far as the eye can see it's torch with intermittent cool shots but no pattern that favors winter in the SE. Our small window of opportunity in January is closing, La Nina Febs suck and who wants snow in March anyway. Next
 
Webberweather53 said:
Endless phase 7.

View attachment 98570
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The UK used to have one of these charts but I can't find it anymore. It was pretty good, IIRC. Anyway, not far from reversing into 6 again, just like last year. Need it to progress through 7 and toward 8. Clearly not going to happen very fast.
 
Ollie Williams said:
7 is the single snowiest phase in NC.
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I keep hearing that, and statistically speaking that may be true...but I can't figure out why, if that's the case, we keep seeing the rest of the country get cold except for the SE, even though we're progged to be in phase 7 for the next 2 weeks. Is snowfall more likely in late Jan phase 7 or in an El Nino phase 7 or a la nada phase 7 or just in the mountains phase 7? Or is it just generally, in the winter, we get more snow in phase 7, irrespective of everything else? Not trying to be a negative Nancy, just trying to understand, because the stats don't pass the eye test right now for me. I don't see anything shown on the models for the next 2 weeks that looks snowy for NC, even though we're going to be in phase 7.

Anyway, how's the CFS?
 
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