Pattern Januworry

[Wild Weather Monger]

It is now weenie talk time. I say weenie because it involves 1984-5:

1. For SAV among other places, Dec 2021 will end up warmer than Nov 2021 by a whopping ~3F per current forecasts. The only time back to the 1870s that Dec ended up more than 3 warmer than Nov was 1984, when it was 3.7 warmer.

2. For RDU and ATL, forecasts have Dec slightly warmer than Nov. In 1984, Dec was also warmer than Nov. (by the biggest amount on record at RDU and the 3rd biggest at ATL).

3. After a BN Nov of 1984, Dec of 1984 was one of the warmest on record at all 3 and even warmer than the forecast for Dec of 2021.

4. The last half of Dec of 1984 had a strong -PNA, strong +NAO, and +AO. The MJO was in phase 5 and then 6. There was a -EPO.

5. Jan had -EPO, a strong +PNA and -NAO, and a very strong -AO.

6. ENSO of late 1984 was very similar to that of now. Also, it, too, was a 2nd year La Niña.

7. January of 1985 was extreme I realize. So, expecting a repeat in January of 2022 would still be quite weenie even with these many strong similarities in 2021 preceding it. But who’s to say that at least part of January of 2022 won’t slightly resemble January of 1985?

End of weenie talk.

PS it is pretty obvious that we go from -PNA to +PNA to best resemble January of 1985’s indices.

I like that kind of weenie talk.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Where did this look come from, it’s still not great for us but it’s a pretty massive change

 

[Broken024]

Where did this look come from, it’s still not great for us but it’s a pretty massive change View attachment 98545View attachment 98546View attachment 98547

Crazy changes

 

[TheBatman]

Look at that temp gradient in the southeast. That impressive.

 

[Broken024]

Slight changes

 

[Tarheel1]

Come to papa!

 

[GaWx]

Hour 348 0Z GFS is cold coast to coast, my kind of map!

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Where did this look come from, it’s still not great for us but it’s a pretty massive change View attachment 98545View attachment 98546View attachment 98547

I’ll refer to my previous comments about how things will evolve better models always can’t handle pattern changes well .. I doubt this is that last change and last look .. again not worried about nothing right now

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Fantasy late run storm coming? Looks like a major CAD on the horizon

 

[Philstorm91]

Fantasy level weenie boardwide winter storm with epic amounts of trailing Arctic cold right behind incoming by hour 360.

 

[TheBatman]

Fantasy late run storm coming? Looks like a major CAD on the horizon

Fantasy level weenie boardwide winter storm with epic amounts of trailing Arctic cold right behind incoming by hour 360.

Kinda nice to see one of these even through its at the end of the run. By hey #winning! Lol

 

[TheBatman]

#Winning!

 

[Broken024]

Fantasy level weenie boardwide winter storm with epic amounts of trailing Arctic cold right behind incoming by hour 360.

Snow from Houston to NY. Nothing this way so far. Interesting look though

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

#Winning!View attachment 98557View attachment 98556View attachment 98558

1054 dropping down the stovepipe would certainly cool us off

 

[Broken024]

We win at 384 again

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Snow from Houston to NY. Nothing this way so far. Interesting look though

I don’t want to call it an anafront but I think that’s what it is. Temp gradient is razor sharp. That would be some cold cold air dropping down. If only we could get something inside 300. Then 200. Then 150. That’d be nice.

 

[TheBatman]

I don’t want to call it an anafront but I think that’s what it is. Temp gradient is razed sharp. That would be some cold cold air dropping down. If only we could get something inside 300. Then 200. Then 150. That’d be nice.

I could something like that actually happening this year. We have had quite a few of analfronts this year with the rain behind them.

 

[Broken024]

I don’t want to call it an anafront but I think that’s what it is. Temp gradient is razor sharp. That would be some cold cold air dropping down. If only we could get something inside 300. Then 200. Then 150. That’d be nice.

Haha yea who knows. Nothing gets anal front status at 300+ hours. Chasing the dragon here.

 

[Arcc]

Slight changes
View attachment 98550View attachment 98551

What is that ~30C change in NY. Haha.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

This is a great look for cold lovers if you flip the low centered up in Ontario and make it all high pressure instead of low pressure. Blockbuster cold/dry look.?‍ Minor adjustments and we’re cooking with grease, fellas.