Pattern Januworry

[NoSnowATL]

I’ll certainly take this, euro has really improved the rmm MJO forecast View attachment 98466View attachment 98467

I think it’s clear 8 is a good bet and I’ll take it.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I think it’s clear 8 is a good bet and I’ll take it.

Shoot 7 is gonna start becoming a good phase especially close to ph 8 like the euro shows, I bet that’s why the eps looks so good towards the end of the run tho because it’s around the end of 7/into 8

 

[NoSnowATL]

Shoot 7 is gonna start becoming a good phase especially close to ph 8 like the euro shows, I bet that’s why the eps looks so good towards the end of the run tho because it’s around the end of 7/into 8

Hopefully it keep sliding into the COD and we can have a Fab Feb again.

 

[GaWx]

I think it’s clear 8 is a good bet and I’ll take it.

Yeah, based on looking at these maps back to 1975, it is highly likely only a matter of “when” and not “if”. Sometimes it just takes seemingly forever. @Webberweather53 has talked about the MJO tending to move more slowly during La Niña.

 

[Webberweather53]

I’ll certainly take this, euro has really improved the rmm MJO forecast View attachment 98466View attachment 98467

As we get later into the early-mid portion of the winter season, the jet wavelengths get a little longer. The ridge favored in the Gulf of Alaska in Dec starts to slide closer to the west coast in January during phase 7.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Much more shallow GOA ridge this run

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Much more shallow GOA ridge this run View attachment 98469

I don’t know if I like that let’s see how it progresses

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

I don’t know if I like that let’s see how it progresses

It progressed into the toilet. On to the ensembles!

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I think over the next 5 days the mid- long range will come in much colder than currently projected .. but of course only time will tell .. it would make sense with MJO progression

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Is this a good look?

 

[Faco Thomas]

If the GEFS proves to be correct and other models trends like this, chances of the pattern flipping towards cold in the SE in early Jan may get a lot more slim. Not likely this solution will happen due the MJO being a favorable spot around this time, but I'm not liking the trend of the GEFS deeping the western trough and lowering heighs in Alaska.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

If the GEFS proves to be correct and other models trends like this, chances of the pattern flipping towards cold in the SE in early Jan may get a lot more slim. Not likely this solution will happen due the MJO being a favorable spot around this time, but I'm not liking the trend of the GEFS deeping the western trough and lowering heighs in Alaska.
View attachment 98475

L Niña will always win in the end.

 

[GaWx]

L Niña will always win in the end.

But what about there being a very strong -NAO and -AO being forecasted by the models?

Does anyone have todays 0Z ensemble AO and NAO output from WxBell?

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

But what about there being a very strong -NAO and -AO being forecasted by the models?

Does anyone have todays 0Z ensemble AO and NAO output from WxBell?

-NAO did us wonders last year

 

[GaWx]

-NAO did us wonders last year

Are you referring to February, 2021?

 

[Tarheelwx]

Again, it’s all about the PNA.
TW

 

[GaWx]

Are you referring to February, 2021?

The -NAO during Feb of 2021 only peaked at moderate (-0.5). The one being forecasted is at least twice as strong.

 

[whatalife]

But what about there being a very strong -NAO and -AO being forecasted by the models?

Does anyone have todays 0Z ensemble AO and NAO output from WxBell?

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Again, it’s all about the PNA.
TW

Totally agree with you. What’s that forecast for the PNA?

 

[whatalife]

Sorry Larry…Just realized these were the 06z GEFS and 12z for the Canadian ens…


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