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Pattern Januworry

Prestige Worldwide said:

Don’t get too excited- maybe 2 weeks of fun
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Honestly the story of every single winter in the southeast. Endless west coast troughs and a tiny 1-2 to week window of below average temps and a chance of a little wintry weather. Honestly a joke. But it’s the southeast what more can you expect
 
Prestige Worldwide said:

Don’t get too excited- maybe 2 weeks of fun
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Even if it was only for 2 weeks that’s a long time for many things to happen and we will have much much time to get a good pattern going again later in winter as well since we are only going to be run late December early January
 
Wow that CFS run last night was a doozy .. we got a major snow storm with temps around 11-15 degrees when snow starts. Uh wow .. then once snow ends temps plummet to -10 or so for many SE locations .. but don’t worry we warm up that week .. from hour 588- the end of the run temps for highs remain below 20 or around 20 degrees for highs and lows dip below zero to single digits every night … talk about living in the arctic .. a run from fantasy heaven if that transpired we wouldn’t know what to do .. first pic is right after snowfall and second is the end of the run (warmest temps since the storm started) B1C2B741-8CBA-42F8-AF49-C5BC9AB91166.jpeg81E444BB-385B-421C-92B0-F62AF034955D.jpeg
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Wow that CFS run last night was a doozy .. we got a major snow storm with temps around 11-15 degrees when snow starts. Uh wow .. then once snow ends temps plummet to -10 or so for many SE locations .. but don’t worry we warm up that week .. from hour 588- the end of the run temps for highs remain below 20 or around 20 degrees for highs and lows dip below zero to single digits every night … talk about living in the arctic .. a run from fantasy heaven if that transpired we wouldn’t know what to do .. first pic is right after snowfall and second is the end of the run (warmest temps since the storm started) View attachment 98448View attachment 98449
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Yeah, I don't think I've ever seen a model run that cold for the SE; and for the length of the cold snap. Ponds and lakes would freeze over. It would be cool to see something like that..
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Wow that CFS run last night was a doozy .. we got a major snow storm with temps around 11-15 degrees when snow starts. Uh wow .. then once snow ends temps plummet to -10 or so for many SE locations .. but don’t worry we warm up that week .. from hour 588- the end of the run temps for highs remain below 20 or around 20 degrees for highs and lows dip below zero to single digits every night … talk about living in the arctic .. a run from fantasy heaven if that transpired we wouldn’t know what to do .. first pic is right after snowfall and second is the end of the run (warmest temps since the storm started) View attachment 98448View attachment 98449
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Here is the previous 24 hours... Jackson, Ms. -22 and Baton Rouge, La. -15 ?
1639924187935.png
 
FallsLake said:
Yeah, I don't think I've ever seen a model run that cold for the SE; and for the length of the cold snap. Ponds and lakes would freeze over. It would be cool to see something like that..
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Just quickly looking at it that run would probably be the all time record low at rdu, all time record low max, quite a few daily record lows, and it would be close to most hours below freezing and most days with snow cover. It would really be a once in a lifetime cold event to be honest and I'm here for it
 
Snowman63 said:
Here is the previous 24 hours... Jackson, Ms. -22 and Baton Rouge, La. -15 ?
View attachment 98451
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That would have to be mean those areas have snow on the ground or at least that's what the CFS is hinting at. Regardless, it's is incredibly unrealistic and unlikely.
 
Snowman63 said:
Here is the previous 24 hours... Jackson, Ms. -22 and Baton Rouge, La. -15 ?
View attachment 98451
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The coldest on record at Jackson, MS, is -5 F set on 1/27/1940 just after their heaviest snow on record of 10.5” set 1/22-23. The coldest on record way up at Chicago is -27 F. So, of course we all know that CFS modeled -22 F is not even close to being realistic. I wonder if the 2M output on Pivotal is similar to what WxBell shows, which I know shows CFS extremes much larger than CFS 2M maps I see as I’ve commented. If so, this is likely not even a CFS issue per se but instead an issue related to flaws in how the 2M temperature maps are generated by certain providers. Maybe it is that temperatures over snowcover are unrealistically way too cold. I’ve seen that problem before even with the Euro though not this bad.

I look at this run as extremely cold but I’m certainly not believing the coldest 2M numbers in the SE as realistic. I suspect the algorithm for snow cover induced cooling is flawed.
 
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GaWx said:
The coldest on record at Jackson, MS, is -5 F set on 1/27/1940 just after their heaviest snow on record of 10.5” set 1/22-23. The coldest on record way up at Chicago is -27 F. So, of course we all know that CFS modeled -22 F is not even close to being realistic. I wonder if the 2M output on Pivotal is similar to what WxBell shows, which I know shows CFS extremes much larger than CFS 2M maps I see as I’ve commented. If so, this is likely not even a CFS issue per se but instead an issue related to flaws in how the 2M temperature maps are generated by certain providers. Maybe it is that temperatures over snowcover are unrealistically way too cold. I’ve seen that problem before even with the Euro though not this bad.

I look at this run as extremely cold but I’m certainly not believing the coldest 2M numbers as realistic.
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The real question is whether or not the CFS has ever had a prior run modeled this cold before? If it did, what actually happened in the weeks that followed.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
100% chance my pipes could survive something like that. No amount of drip would save me here. Thankfully, this could never happen.
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Would be worse than what happened in Texas. There wouldn't be a single tree left alive in the south except for a few red maples or something lol. We would have to change the NC state tree from the pine to the maple or something.
 
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