Pattern Januworry

[LickWx]

The real question is whether or not the CFS has ever had a prior run modeled this cold before? If it did, what actually happened in the weeks that followed.

I cant compare intensity but I have seen the CFS at that range show temps that cold plenty of times before. Honestly every year, last year might be an exeption I cant recall if I ever saw that last year.

 

[GaWx]

It "could" happen but probably won't. I give it a 10% chance of verifying.

Lmao, 10% chance that Jackson, MS, gets down to -22? You must be trolling. You can’t possibly believe that.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Lmao, 10% chance that Jackson, MS, gets down to -22? You must be trolling. You can’t possibly believe that.

One thing I've learned is that the weather just keeps getting crazier every year. We are living in strange times. Nothing would surprise me.

 

[GaWx]

I cant compare intensity but I have seen the CFS at that range show temps that cold plenty of times before. Honestly every year, last year might be an exeption I cant recall if I ever saw that last year.

What provider’s maps are you referring to? Any one in particular? The snowcover induced cooling algorithms could easily be flawed way too cold.

 

[LickWx]

What provider’s maps are you referring to? Any one in particular? The snowcover induced cooling algorithms could easily be flawed way too cold.

Pivotal weather is what I look at

 

[Mr. Golf]

What provider’s maps are you referring to? Any one in particular? The snowcover induced cooling algorithms could easily be flawed way too cold.

Larry, nw Arkansas got down to -22 last February so it can be done in the south. Just not often enough unfortunately

 

[GaWx]

Pivotal weather is what I look at

Ok, thanks. That’s all I need to know. So, from what you’re saying, this isn’t even an extraordinarily cold CFS run on Pivotal

 

[LickWx]

Ok, thanks. That’s all I need to know. So, from what you’re saying, this isn’t even an extraordinarily cold CFS run on Pivotal

In terms of how cold it got no, but how long it lasted ? I’m not sure , I can’t recall if I ever saw it show something that lasted 200+ hours .

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Larry, nw Arkansas got down to -22 last February so it can be done in the south. Just not often enough unfortunately

And it's been close to -20 in MS and close to -30 in AL before.

 

[LickWx]

And it's been close to -20 in MS and close to -30 in AL before.

In very very specific locations that make up probably .0001% of the states land area . New market Alabama has the record at -24 near Huntsville . -24 is not that close to -30 so a bit misleading .

 

[GaWx]

Larry, nw Arkansas got down to -22 last February so it can be done in the south. Just not often enough unfortunately

Fayetteville, AR, which got down to -22 last Feb, is 350 miles NW of Jackson and 1,100 feet higher elevation than Jackson. And to repeat, the coldest on record at Jackson is “only” -5 and that was over their deepest snowcover on record by a wide margin.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

In very very specific locations that make up probably .0001% of the states land area . New market Alabama has the record at -24 near Huntsville . -24 is not that close to -30 so a bit misleading .

I think it was -27 in New Market

 

[Bham 99]

In very very specific locations that make up probably .0001% of the states land area . New market Alabama has the record at -24 near Huntsville . -24 is not that close to -30 so a bit misleading .

And the cold air doesn't have to cross the mountains in those locations.

 

[Mr. Golf]

Regardless, those cold patterns are anomalies for a reason. Got to have the right atmospheric conditions to allow that to occur.

 

[Snowman63]

Larry, nw Arkansas got down to -22 last February so it can be done in the south. Just not often enough unfortunately

There's quite a bit of difference between Jackson, Ms. and NW Arkansas. lol

 

[Mr. Golf]

I just want 28-32 ,which is cold enough for snow and sleet and ice. Low teens in February was fun but very rare in snowing

 

[LickWx]

And the cold air doesn't have to cross the mountains in those locations.

New market Huntsville area is in the southern portion of the Cumberland plateau which provides perfect geography for exceptionally cold lows . With ridges to the west and the app mountains to the east.

 

[GaWx]

Regardless, those cold patterns are anomalies for a reason. Got to have the right atmospheric conditions to allow that to occur.

But likely issues with forecast model map output algorithms shouldn’t be ignored. That’s 17 colder than their coldest on record, which itself was over deep snowcover.

 

[Mr. Golf]

But likely issues with forecast model map output algorithms shouldn’t be ignored.

Just fun to look at I suppose

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I’ll certainly take this, euro has really improved the rmm MJO forecast