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Pattern Januworry

Clem282340 said:
Do you still think that we will still see a pattern flip in early January
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I personally am under the impression early-mid January is our only real shot here. Don't have much faith in February during La Nina, esp when it looks like subseasonal forcing may strongly favor warmth (even more so than now)
 
Webberweather53 said:
I personally am under the impression early-mid January is our only real shot here. Don't have much faith in February during La Nina, esp when it looks like subseasonal forcing may strongly favor warmth (even more so than now)
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Still think blocking will help us in the end the -NAO will come thru for cold rain CAD parties
 
Webberweather53 said:
I personally am under the impression early-mid January is our only real shot here. Don't have much faith in February during La Nina, esp when it looks like subseasonal forcing may strongly favor warmth (even more so than now)
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Regarding that EPS trend toward a stronger -NAO that you were showing on Thursday in animation for what was then week 2, has that continued to hold?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Not mad eventually this would get shaked up with that look View attachment 98490
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@Myfrotho704_ I'm bored with this game and want to discuss weather. What do you see in this that would lead to a shake up? Nicky didn't agree with my analysis of the map but wouldn't answer when I asked him how it would shake up. lol Just curious what you see that I don't taking this verbatim?
 
Although the 12Z EPS was clearly warmer than 0Z as Webb showed, the 360 hour map, itself, isn’t a bad look to me as regards the potential evolution to a much better pattern in early January:

3FA4160A-8851-4F7A-B056-20408B1EA43B.pngFC4FB514-6A09-4E10-A5D4-10AD1359DB60.png

Of course, I realize that having to look at ends of runs for hope is getting old and we need to see more forward progress to resume like it was doing nicely before. We probably need the MJO to finally get to phase 8.
 
GaWx said:
Although the 12Z EPS was clearly warmer than 0Z as Webb showed, the 360 hour map, itself, isn’t a bad look to me as regards the potential evolution to a much better pattern in early January:

View attachment 98502View attachment 98503

Of course, I realize that having to look at ends of runs for hope is getting old and we need to see more forward progress to resume like it was doing nicely before. We probably need the MJO to finally get to phase 8.
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+PNA ... IMHO ... and now going back into the cone of silence, Maxwell ...
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
@Myfrotho704_ I'm bored with this game and want to discuss weather. What do you see in this that would lead to a shake up? Nicky didn't agree with my analysis of the map but wouldn't answer when I asked him how it would shake up. lol Just curious what you see that I don't taking this verbatim?
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There would probably be a attempt at a ridge bridge from the -NAO and AK ridge which would initially try to slide the TPV east, and if that failed (probably would have) we would have to wait for another series of -PNA due to that energy diving down north of AK, all we need is the ridge to get close to the western US and that would be enough for a conus trough
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
There would probably be a attempt at a ridge bridge from the -NAO and AK ridge which would initially try to slide the TPV east, and if that failed (probably would have) we would have to wait for another series of -PNA due to that energy diving down north of AK, all we need is the ridge to get close to the western US and that would be enough for a conus trough
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Now you may have a point there. I think a conus trough is more likely than a +PNA east coast trough at this point. At least for awhile. A ridge bridge would be ok. If we went that route though I wouldn't want to lose the blocking over Greenland. If we lost the NAO we'd essentially be looking at a strong -AO and Aluetian ridge. A strong-AO is good to see but it only guarantees the Arctic is dumped somewhere but the other indices have a say where it goes. In that case the Aleutian ridge would definitely dump it on the west. Anyway that's enough analyzing an op model at range lol on to 18Z
 
Webber, I saw your diagram of phase 7 in January of enso. That would be a pretty good look if it occurs. How does that work out with a +AAM as well? Continued blocking?
 
Also, why isnt the cold being sped up in modeling? Or what do we need to see take place for it to happen? Instead of the chasing unicorns again scenario lol
 
Mr. Golf said:
Webber, I saw your diagram of phase 7 in January of enso. That would be a pretty good look if it occurs. How does that work out with a +AAM as well? Continued blocking?
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I for one hope it's still stuck in phase 7 come January and then slowly creep through 8 in mid Jan. Because you're right, phase 7 is excellent in Jan and phase 8 is right there with it. That's where the hope comes in for January. The -NAO alone isn't going to do it this time with that Pac ridge in place. But exactly how the MJO breaks that ridge down is for Webber to explain. He explained on the previous page we need to get the Pac jet to undercut it and force it north. But how or if the MJO can actually do that I do not know.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I for one hope it's still stuck in phase 7 come January and then slowly creep through 8 in mid Jan. Because you're right, phase 7 is excellent in Jan and phase 8 is right there with it. That's where the hope comes in for January. The -NAO alone isn't going to do it this time with that Pac ridge in place. But exactly how the MJO breaks that ridge down is for Webber to explain.
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The simple point is if the models keep delaying the cold, its probably not going to happen. I guess phase 7 would be good if its there in January
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Now you may have a point there. I think a conus trough is more likely than a +PNA east coast trough at this point. At least for awhile. A ridge bridge would be ok. If we went that route though I wouldn't want to lose the blocking over Greenland. If we lost the NAO we'd essentially be looking at a strong -AO and Aluetian ridge. A strong-AO is good to see but it only guarantees the Arctic is dumped somewhere but the other indices have a say where it goes. In that case the Aleutian ridge would definitely dump it on the west. Anyway that's enough analyzing an op model at range lol on to 18Z
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I’m getting concerned about the NA blocking trend and GOA ridge trend, not worried but a little concerned
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I’m getting concerned about the NA blocking trend and GOA ridge trend, not worried but a little concerned
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Yeah like I said yesterday both of those blocks at the same time is rare and one usually destroys the other. And I'm hoping it's not the -NAO that goes. But I'm not real sure if that applies here since that's not really a -EPO ridge.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Although not great, finally the gfs has stronger -NAO blocking after it being weaker for 3 runs in a row and the pacific is slightly better
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My guess is that we rides the 7/8 line into COD. Wishfull thinking yes but that’s my Christmas wish. Just have to be patient the next 10-14 days.
 
NoSnowATL said:
My guess is that we rides the 7/8 line into COD. Wishfull thinking yes but that’s my Christmas wish. Just have to be patient the next 10-14 days.
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I'd like it to get solidly into 8 then ride the line between 8 and 1 into the COD in mid to late January. The later we get to the COD the later we can emerge in 4, 5 and 6.
 
Rain Cold said:
You're right. And it never does. But that's not really going to be our issue.
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Yep our problem is still there throughout the run. It did move it a little more north and east but it's still positively tilted and dropping energy down the west coast. But that's just getting into Jan when phase 7 becomes favorable and should be close to 8 by then. There's way more than the MJO at work as you say often, but it's going to have to save the day for us the way it looks at the moment.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Yep our problem is still there throughout the run. It did move it a little more north and east but it's still positively tilted and dropping energy down the west coast. But that's just getting into Jan when phase 7 becomes favorable and should be close to 8 by then. There's way more than the MJO at work as you say often, but it's going to have to save the day for us the way it looks at the moment.
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Yeah doesn’t help that we’ve trended to a shallow GOA ridge at all
 
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