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Pattern Januworry

Loganelliott99 said:
Totally agree with you. What’s that forecast for the PNA?
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Trash. Maybe slight hope by New Years. I'm not expecting anything until the 1st week of Jan. If next weekend we're still seeing this west coast trough SER showing up through the end of the ensembles then I'll start to lose hope.Screenshot_20211219-133045_Chrome.jpg
 
Not exactly a fan of the gefs kinda has a look similar to last January towards the end of the run
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Not exactly a fan of the gefs kinda has a look similar to last January towards the end of the run
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Since any potential pattern change is still at the very end of the ensembles and they are hardly ever correct that far out its not concerning yet. Next week at this time it'll be 10 days or so out so we should see come consistent good looks by then. If we don't I'll be a little worried but still not giving up. If by New Years we're torching and still no hope on the ensembles throughout their runs then we have our answer as to how it progresses.
 
Gfs showed a similar progression in the pacific vs 6z but it reestablished Aleutian ridging late which dropped another trough off the WC. Seeing that the pattern change shuffle in the pacific around D7-10 really didn't raise red flags to me yet. If the idea of renewed Aleutian ridging continues in the d13-16 from right now sure we might have some issues
 
I really wouldn’t worry about anything showing up on the models right now .. teleconnections in the right positions for the most part along with good MJO phase and progression into hopefully 8 in January .. I have no doubt the models will begin to start showing that type of good pattern for us eventually .. don’t get caught up in the every 6 hour deterministic model output
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Not mad eventually this would get shaked up with that look View attachment 98490
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I wouldn't bet on that working out well. Something HAS to move that Pacific ridge east and I don't know anything other than the MJO that may do it. The NAO appears to be breaking down on the GFS and Euro around New Years and that's the last thing that can happen with that fake -EPO located where it is. Hopefully the EPS looks nothing like that toward the end. Hopefully the 0Z EPS was onto something and not these 12Z runs so far.
 
@NickyBGuarantee explain to me how it would get shaken up? How are you getting the trough off the west coast with a positive tilted ridge that strong in that location. And the lower heights around Greenland starting to appear would be a breaking down NAO correct? What hope would there be to mute the SER response to the west coast trough without that? I'm not saying an operational model is correct, I'm just analyzing what it shows and disagreeing with fro that that would lead to great things.
 
I mentioned back in early November that I was taking a five-week sabbatical in January and the first week of February. I've been holding off on reserving a place because I don't want to travel out west if it's going to turn cold/snowy in the east. I'm going to wait one more week, but right now I'm definitely leaning toward heading west.
 
Can definitely make out the signature of excess West Pacific convection in this run-run 500mb difference on the EPS. Stronger wave train + shorter wavelengths across the Pacific into N America w/ diabatically-forced subtropical ridge over E Asia

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_dprog-0995200.png
 
The best way we can get rid of this GOA ridge is to amp the wave pattern, have the Pacific jet cut underneath it, and force the block up into Alaska + the Arctic to then retrograde back towards Russia (-EPO >> -WPO), giving us opportunities for at least transient W coast ridging/+PNA. East QBO we have atm actually makes that evolution a tad harder to come by
 
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