iGRXY
Member
Nothing but a 1046 high in prime CAD position with no moisture around.
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Pattern Januworry
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Nothing but a 1046 high in prime CAD position with no moisture around.
Ron Burgundy
Member
Overnight disco from FFC on Sunday night snow chances. Such as they are…
The final piece of all this is what happens on the backside of the
front/sfc low that forms due to the last shortwave. A lot of that is
going to depend on the strength of the cold air, how quickly it
moves into GA, the timing and strength of the shortwave...needless
to say, there is a LOT of uncertainty that remains in place about
any potential winter weather. The 0Z suite has been less aggressive
with the cold air, and the EURO less aggressive with the strength of
the shortwave, so there has been some trimming back on the light
snow showers and light mix possibility in this forecast package.
Want to continue to emphasize that we are still seeing large run to
run variance, and even ensemble variance, in what happens with this
across GA. Don`t take any one model run as truth, as the picture
likely won`t be much clearer for several days.
Lusk
The final piece of all this is what happens on the backside of the
front/sfc low that forms due to the last shortwave. A lot of that is
going to depend on the strength of the cold air, how quickly it
moves into GA, the timing and strength of the shortwave...needless
to say, there is a LOT of uncertainty that remains in place about
any potential winter weather. The 0Z suite has been less aggressive
with the cold air, and the EURO less aggressive with the strength of
the shortwave, so there has been some trimming back on the light
snow showers and light mix possibility in this forecast package.
Want to continue to emphasize that we are still seeing large run to
run variance, and even ensemble variance, in what happens with this
across GA. Don`t take any one model run as truth, as the picture
likely won`t be much clearer for several days.
Lusk
alfoman
Member
Agreed. Would doubt anyone outside of the mountains sees much, as these cold-air chasing scenarios never really pan too well for most of us.
The trough did dig deeper with a more positive tilt on this run and slowed some compared to 6Z. Classic Miller B setup here, and we'd need a much deeper and stronger/slower dig to get anything out of this. Will at least cool us down some heading into the start of next week.
This gfs is run is probably going to be ugly after D8
Dumpster fire 
Ron Burgundy
Member
Sweet - that will help keep our snowpack intact! ?
Avalanche
Member
Wake jackpots while Chatham gets rain. Lol. Must have been pre-configured in the model.
Yes 
iGRXY
Member
Simply put, the GFS is ugly as you can get. Granted this model is hot garbage and has zero consistency.
Thankfully we have massive CAD helping us stay quite cold with this look
Pac jet is nosing east at 192 so the pacific structure should start changing after and the trough kick out just before d10 but not a great look from the gfs before hand
That's why the ICON is my favorite, no need for anything past 180 or 120.
I mean, it’s not nothing ?
Avalanche
Member
Its all east of Greenville. Jackpot.
Im Convinced a mean over 0.5 here is impossible lol 
UK is verbatim a wet snow setup for CLT/GSO/RAH through NE NC, UK never shows snow with marginal boundary layer temps (temps in the mid/upper 30s) but soundings are clearly supportive of backside snow (sounding over mby because mby matters the most)
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IMO we are very close to getting something interesting with this system .. many gefs have some sort of break out of snow at the tail end of this system with cold air collapsing the column .. has the potential for dynamic snow with heavier rates which is great for lucky lollipop winners .. let’s see what the euro chooses