Pattern Januworry

[SD]

Well at least the main show starts here in reality, at hour 120, or at least sets us up View attachment 102092

And realistically the whole evolution has already started

 

[Ollie Williams]

Bro pulled out receipts from a year ago ???

Well, when Webber tells us this pattern is a 9/10 on a favorabllity scale, I’m bound to remember.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

And realistically the whole evolution has already started

Yeah the only way I see us “failing” is we delay the pac jet retraction even more (which seems unlikely) and or we retrograde the pattern in under a week out west between the 15-20th (which seems like is becoming more unlikely esp given the -NAO block showing up now)

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Well, when Webber tells us this pattern is a 9/10 on a favorabllity scale, I’m bound to remember.

Let’s just leave last winter behind that was a winter full of pain, one of the most miserable winters ever

 

[brendan123]

DT sounds excited...

 

[Stormdoc]

This GEFS run should be interesting, stronger +PNA ridge and stronger wave NE of Africa under the developing block might try to force a stronger -NAO sooner via wavebreaking View attachment 102086

Yeah, I was wondering how we could get to a -NAO in this pattern without a + SCAND, but that setup just might do the trick

 

[SD]

Well, when Webber tells us this pattern is a 9/10 on a favorabllity scale, I’m bound to remember.

It's interesting how so many ninas have this type of modeled look and similar evolution rolling from Dec into Jan but the results are so wildly different

 

[Deleted member 609]

So how did GEFS end up looking late? TT stopped working.

 

[SD]

So how did GEFS end up looking late? TT stopped working.

 

[BullCityWx]

????

That’s a pretty strong signal for that lead time.

 

[BullCityWx]

Also noted that in the 16th-ish time period, there were 50% of the GFS members showing at least some snow accumulation.

 

[SD]

Also noted that in the 16th-ish time period, there were 50% of the GFS members showing at least some snow accumulation.

IS THIS GOOD?

 

[Stephenb888]

Also noted that in the 16th-ish time period, there were 50% of the GFS members showing at least some snow accumulation.

Can we see the maps?

 

[SD]

Can we see the maps?

P22 and I'll be good

 

[Stephenb888]

View attachment 102103

P22 and I'll be good

Lol this is exactly how I pictured these maps in my mind. Atleast there’s 2 on here that would do me right.

 

[SD]

Lol this is exactly how I pictured these maps in my mind. Atleast there’s 2 on here that would do me right.

Well just 24 hours ago they were basically blank so it's getting better. Just give me the cold and the setup at 500mb the rest will work out for someone on this board

 

[superjames1992]

This pattern is like playing Russian roulette with five bullets in six chambers. It’s gonna be tough to not get out of this without another storm.

We’ll find a way!

 

[Ron Burgundy]

one hell of a averaged out H5 pattern for jan 10th-20thView attachment 102077

Man, that takes me back to the early ‘80s when I was a yute!

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Well just 24 hours ago they were basically blank so it's getting better. Just give me the cold and the setup at 500mb the rest will work out for someone on this board

I hope the SC midlands can finally cash in??
Getting snow for us is like saying Miami Fl is about to see snow ???

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Hate to be the grim reaper but I wouldn’t be shocked if the next 3-5 systems all impacted Virginia south-west into Tennessee. Pattern will need to change for those E of the mtns. Of course it can happen like with our last week event, it’s a bit rare to have tornadoes and high wind and backside snow I say most the snow will scurt to our north or west again and again ?

 

[NCSNOW]

We’ll find a way!

We always find a way. The problem we have is where the way usually leads us to.

All seriousness, pattern is there. Hopefully we can cash a big one in for a change.

 

[NCSNOW]

Hate to be the grim reaper but I wouldn’t be shocked if the next 3-5 systems all impacted Virginia south-west into Tennessee. Pattern will need to change for those E of the mtns. Of course it can happen like with our last week event, it’s a bit rare to have tornadoes and high wind and backside snow I say most the snow will scurt to our north or west again and again ?

Your batting 0 for the season. Excellent call how it would be late January at the earliest before "east of the mtns saw accumulating snow."

 

[iGRXY]

Hate to be the grim reaper but I wouldn’t be shocked if the next 3-5 systems all impacted Virginia south-west into Tennessee. Pattern will need to change for those E of the mtns. Of course it can happen like with our last week event, it’s a bit rare to have tornadoes and high wind and backside snow I say most the snow will scurt to our north or west again and again ?

There is literally not one single basis that you can pull right now to support this. In fact if anything storms are going to have a much better shot at going OTS or being squashed all together due to extreme cold press from the north.

 

[Rain Cold]

View attachment 102101

Not super duper excited seeing the Aleutian ridge coming back...but maybe it's transient. Who knows.

 

[SD]

Not super duper excited seeing the Aleutian ridge coming back...but maybe it's transient. Who knows.

It's going to happen at some point. Hopefully it's the typical models rushing the pattern change

 

[Myfrotho704_]

ICON wasn’t far off from something, but this time from energy diving into MT

 

[Tarheel1]

Not super duper excited seeing the Aleutian ridge coming back...but maybe it's transient. Who knows.

Webber? Dat you?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Webber? Dat you?

For real too much negativity going around ?‍?

 

[Deleted member 609]

For real too much negativity going around ?‍?

I'm never in if RC isn't

 

[GaWx]

In terms of likeability, the 0Z GFS suite so far is probably not near the top.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

In terms of likeability, the 0Z GFS suite so far is probably not near the top.

Pattern still looks ripe but no tangible storm for us to post around for an hour unfortunately.. I’m sure in 6 hours it’ll change lol

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Well some great discussion tonight guys. We'll have to see how this actually evolves, but the pieces look about as good as they have in years, AT THIS POINT. That's with a huge dose of knowing things can change on a dime.

One key difference from last year is there is a lot of cold air out there to work with. We've already seen some serious cold in both Canada and AK earlier, and the NW and Sierras had their cold and record snow. Last year we had the - NOA but there was little cold on our side to tap into. Gotta have the cold! We still might not score but it's nice to see the players show up like this. Let's see if they take the field.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I leave you guys alone for one 00z run and the wheels fall completely off

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I leave you guys alone for one 00z run and the wheels fall completely off

Wheels are completely intact

 

[Deleted member 609]

I leave you guys alone for one 00z run and the wheels fall completely off

Jimbo special

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

First late bloomer can trend better
Second muchhhh better and can trend so nicely
Third is a gulf low and lots of cold air around .. beautiful

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

and to end it off we got a drastically large -NAO to finish the pant bursting

 

[Brent]

The 12z was way better ?

 

[ATLwxfan]

6z was meh. It will not snow at 50°.


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[NCSNOW]

Im still perked up about 1/16ish: Thats getting in to Euro hr 240 now: If you look at the 0z Euro you can see energy from Texas deep south heading east and cold in place upper south.This is the time-frame the GFS was on to for a few days: Its been quit past few cycles: But its rock solid on the Cold: Just be looking for some energy to show from 1/16-1/23.