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Pattern January Discussion

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Boosted said:
snaowstud said:
accu35 said:
We already seen a pattern change this winter, went from cold to warm and back to cold, that's a change. If you live in the southeast then that's what to be expected. Models looking good for the change in about 10 dsys, have faith.
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NO, this is not normal, guess you glossed over my response above.  The RIDGE has been PERSISTENT since last Winter, this could turn out to be warmer than last winter, IMO. The pattern change is 15 days away and will be tomorrow and the next day. And you think we had a "warm" nose last week, wait till the next threat comes if any, the upper levels are so hot, if this was July or August we would be 105 or higher.
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 What are you talking about? Cold air never locks in at these latitudes for an extended length of time. We get it, it's warm right now. As for the pattern shift it's pretty evident on almost every global model solution if you would look. Also that "warm" nose is due to our close proximity to the always warm Gulf of Mexico. This isn't the first time warm air aloft has mitigated a winter event in the south. This is one of the many reasons why predicting winter wx in the south is so difficult. I suggest moving to a higher latitude if you want cold and snow locked in.
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If warm air can lock in for weeks at a time in the winter there is no reason why cold air shouldnt be able to lock in also. If we can have 2 weeks of 20+ AN we should get 2 weeks of 20+ BN to balance things out. Problem is that we never seem to get the cold extremes to last for as long as the warm extremes so we end up never balancing our temps out which is why every freaking month for the last 12 months has been AN in Atlanta.
 
I found the below pretty cool...thought I would copy and paste FYI.

"The radius of ice accumulation on items such as limbs and power lines is typically about 20% to 40% of the total amount of rain that falls during an ice storm, according to a recent Weather and Forecasting paper by meteorologists Kristopher Sanders and Brian Barjenbruch (NWS/Topeka, KS)."
 
SD, this could have some merit if the mjo gets in the colder phases imo. Not sure about the PV trying to weaken. It would be nice to see

SD, what you think about this: Andrea Lopez Lang
@alopezlang
6h
Troposphere-stratosphere wave coupling via 45-75N geo. height amplitude. GFS forecast shows a battle btwn wave 1 and 2. pic.twitter.com/NgjHmBS7Y0
View photo ·
 
snaowstud said:
Boosted said:
snaowstud said:
NO, this is not normal, guess you glossed over my response above.  The RIDGE has been PERSISTENT since last Winter, this could turn out to be warmer than last winter, IMO. The pattern change is 15 days away and will be tomorrow and the next day. And you think we had a "warm" nose last week, wait till the next threat comes if any, the upper levels are so hot, if this was July or August we would be 105 or higher.
Click to expand...
 What are you talking about? Cold air never locks in at these latitudes for an extended length of time. We get it, it's warm right now. As for the pattern shift it's pretty evident on almost every global model solution if you would look. Also that "warm" nose is due to our close proximity to the always warm Gulf of Mexico. This isn't the first time warm air aloft has mitigated a winter event in the south. This is one of the many reasons why predicting winter wx in the south is so difficult. I suggest moving to a higher latitude if you want cold and snow locked in.
Click to expand...

Is this the man that looks like Colonel Sanders that had way too many biscuits, or is it the infamously famous JS? :exclamation: :exclamation:
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I am definitely not a moderator, but I think you should think about what you are saying. You are placing strange out of place comments into a thread about discussing weather. Now let's get back to discussing the pattern. :)
 
Long range experimental outlook
d19f39286fa82da5905ef45d198560c3.jpg


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WilkesboroDude said:
I found the below pretty cool...thought I would copy and paste FYI.

"The radius of ice accumulation on items such as limbs and power lines is typically about 20% to 40% of the total amount of rain that falls during an ice storm, according to a recent Weather and Forecasting paper by meteorologists Kristopher Sanders and Brian Barjenbruch (NWS/Topeka, KS)."
Click to expand...
That makes sense, but it also depends on rates and temperature. You can have higher with light precipitation and low temperatures.
 
Boosted said:
snaowstud said:
accu35 said:
We already seen a pattern change this winter, went from cold to warm and back to cold, that's a change. If you live in the southeast then that's what to be expected. Models looking good for the change in about 10 dsys, have faith.
Click to expand...

NO, this is not normal, guess you glossed over my response above.  The RIDGE has been PERSISTENT since last Winter, this could turn out to be warmer than last winter, IMO. The pattern change is 15 days away and will be tomorrow and the next day. And you think we had a "warm" nose last week, wait till the next threat comes if any, the upper levels are so hot, if this was July or August we would be 105 or higher.
Click to expand...
 What are you talking about? Cold air never locks in at these latitudes for an extended length of time. We get it, it's warm right now. As for the pattern shift it's pretty evident on almost every global model solution if you would look. Also that "warm" nose is due to our close proximity to the always warm Gulf of Mexico. This isn't the first time warm air aloft has mitigated a winter event in the south. This is one of the many reasons why predicting winter wx in the south is so difficult. I suggest moving to a higher latitude if you want cold and snow locked in.
Click to expand...
There will always be warm noses with winter systems except for the far, far north where it stays cold all winter long. The placement of the warm nose depends on track of low and other factors. The upper levels don't always stay warm. When a strong cold front passes through, the upper levels will become colder as a HP builds in after a strong cold front passage.

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I did post a long range experimental temp outlook map that started late this month into Feb. I think the image got deleted cause it had Feb. on it as well. Anyway, the map had all of the SE (expect for central and Southern FL) having a 50% chance of below normal temps. starting Jan. 28th and some places at a 55%. Of course the timing could change because we are speaking of the long range.

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JLL1973 said:
ForsythSnow said:
Storm5 said:
no one wants to talk about late next weekend for areas to our west.


ice storm city
c532c3bcd08f8c2ada6a5a73d87a168f.jpg


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Click to expand...

I was going to upload an image of the ice they are showing, then saw the site was back up, then forgot. Here it is.
zr_acc.us_ov.png


Worst spot is 1.8" of ice. Imagine if that played out as even half.

What is more impressive are the temps and the high behind that. The 18Z GFS has a 1053 high in the Midwest, with -30 temps.
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one inch of ice. na i think ill pass on that
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SoutheastRidge said:
Snowman63 said:
accu35 said:
I promise some ppl on here just eartates me.
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accu35 said:
Jackson Alabama
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Wow, that maybe worse than Waycross, Ga.
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Dang, he probably gets snow once every 20 years ?
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I give credit to all the snow lovers in the real Deep South. Where I live is still hard enough to deal with and I'm guaranteed to see at least 5-10 days of snow falling during the winter. Had I known how much I would love snow when I moved to Tennessee I would have definitely moved further north.
 
olhausen said:
JLL1973 said:
ForsythSnow said:
I was going to upload an image of the ice they are showing, then saw the site was back up, then forgot. Here it is.
zr_acc.us_ov.png


Worst spot is 1.8" of ice. Imagine if that played out as even half.

What is more impressive are the temps and the high behind that. The 18Z GFS has a 1053 high in the Midwest, with -30 temps.
Click to expand...

one inch of ice. na i think ill pass on that
Click to expand...

SoutheastRidge said:
Snowman63 said:
Wow, that maybe worse than Waycross, Ga.
Click to expand...

Dang, he probably gets snow once every 20 years ?
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I give credit to all the snow lovers in the real Deep South. Where I live is still hard enough to deal with and I'm guaranteed to see at least 5-10 days of snow falling during the winter. Had I known how much I would love snow when I moved to Tennessee I would have definitely moved further north.
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You gotta admire his dedication and optimism. If i lived in South AL i would probably never even bother posting on a board like this. I would feel hopeless.
 
I'll take whatever the 00z gfs is smoking ..... good grief

sweet pattern

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Storm5 said:
I'll take whatever the 00z gfs is smoking ..... good grief

sweet pattern

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Click to expand...


It was ok. You might get something out of that (sarcasm).


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Lol, actually I'm I'm a area where i do get hit pretty good sometimes. But yeah I'm a true snow lover and dedicated chaser. Couple years ago and the year before was good for me, with an amazing ice storm and snowstorm.
 
Lol, just last week I had freezing rain, couple years ago 2 ice storms year before big snowstorm. I'm doing pretty good where I'm at. But yeah my area is hard to come by with winter storms sometimes, but then I'll chase as well
 
I hope I am posting this in the right discussion.  I don't usually post.  I just sit back and read and try to learn.  I was just wondering what's the year on record for the hottest day in January and what was that temperature.  I sort of thought maybe these 70's had set a new record for January.
 
WilkesboroDudeI found the below pretty cool...thought I would copy and paste FYI.

"The radius of ice accumulation on items such as limbs and power lines is typically about 20% to 40% of the total amount of rain that falls during an ice storm, according to a recent Weather and Forecasting paper by meteorologists Kristopher Sanders and Brian Barjenbruch (NWS/Topeka, KS)."

 That is lower than I thought. I had thought it tended to be near 50%.
 
I usually get some nice winter storms, but not like my northern areas does.
 
OK I did not know all those were posted by me, sorry didn't mean to post alot that time. Don't know what happened
 
shoalswxlady said:
I hope I am posting this in the right discussion.  I don't usually post.  I just sit back and read and try to learn.  I was just wondering what's the year on record for the hottest day in January and what was that temperature.  I sort of thought maybe these 70's had set a new record for January.
Click to expand...


Your record high in January is 80. Your record is safe.


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ForsythSnow said:
Euro goes wild at day 10. Lol at the bomb it develops.
ecmwf_T850_us_11.png
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Yeah me thinks that might be a little on the strong side but I'd love to see it happen

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SD said:
ForsythSnow said:
Euro goes wild at day 10. Lol at the bomb it develops.
ecmwf_T850_us_11.png
Click to expand...
Yeah me thinks that might be a little on the strong side but I'd love to see it happen

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Click to expand...


The warm nose would go all the way to Ashville.


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SD said:
ForsythSnow said:
Euro goes wild at day 10. Lol at the bomb it develops.
ecmwf_T850_us_11.png
Click to expand...
Yeah me thinks that might be a little on the strong side but I'd love to see it happen

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Click to expand...

It all depends on what that high in the Hudson bay does. The Euro builds it large and strong enough that it steers the strong system that both the GFS and the Euro have south. However, the GFS has the high weaker, sending the low still strong up into the Midwest and bombing out there. The GFS-Para and its Ensembles support the Op's path, and the EPS takes a middle ground. The high would, per modeled, make the difference between snowstorm or severe weather outbreak. I would love to see a storm that soon, but the chances of a severe outbreak before a storm are more likely.
 
shoalswxlady said:
I hope I am posting this in the right discussion.  I don't usually post.  I just sit back and read and try to learn.  I was just wondering what's the year on record for the hottest day in January and what was that temperature.  I sort of thought maybe these 70's had set a new record for January.
Click to expand...


From 
http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=110423

[font='PT Sans', sans-serif]*The high has reached or exceeded 70 degrees on 284 January days since 1900 in Birmingham.[/font]
[font='PT Sans', sans-serif]*Warmest January temperature on record: 81 degrees on January 10, 1949.[/font]
[font='PT Sans', sans-serif]*We reached or exceeded 78 degrees on 13 days since 1900…[/font]
[font='PT Sans', sans-serif]January 10, 1949 81
January 17, 1943 79
January 20, 1928 78
January 14, 1932 78
January 22, 1937 78
January 23, 1943 78
January 15, 1947 78
January 11, 1949 78
January 24, 1950 78
January 25, 1950 78
January 30, 1950 78
January 1, 1952 78
January 29, 2002 78[/font]
[font='PT Sans', sans-serif]*Warmest month of January on record, by far was January 1950 with an average high of 66.65 degrees. Next comes January 1937 at 63.35 degrees, and January 1907 at 61.90 degrees. [/font]
 
ForsythSnow said:
SD said:
ForsythSnow said:
Euro goes wild at day 10. Lol at the bomb it develops.
ecmwf_T850_us_11.png
Click to expand...
Yeah me thinks that might be a little on the strong side but I'd love to see it happen

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Click to expand...

It all depends on what that high in the Hudson bay does. The Euro builds it large and strong enough that it steers the strong system that both the GFS and the Euro have south. However, the GFS has the high weaker, sending the low still strong up into the Midwest and bombing out there. The GFS-Para and its Ensembles support the Op's path, and the EPS takes a middle ground. The high would, per modeled, make the difference between snowstorm or severe weather outbreak. I would love to see a storm that soon, but the chances of a severe outbreak before a storm are more likely.
Click to expand...
Agree I think the euro is way too amplified and Southeast

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So did I miss anything [sarcasm] [UNAMUSED FACE]

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metwannabe said:
So did I miss anything [sarcasm] [UNAMUSED FACE]

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Just that weather on planet earth is volatile, wild swings of temperature likey occur and the southeastern United states isn't always an ideal location for winter weather lol.
 
Roswellian said:
metwannabe said:
So did I miss anything [sarcasm] [UNAMUSED FACE]

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Click to expand...

Just that weather on planet earth is volatile, wild swings of temperature likey occur and the southeastern United states isn't always an ideal location for winter weather lol.
Click to expand...
This might be the best answer ever

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