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Pattern January Discussion

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Here it is January and 70s in the forecast for a good solid week.
 
GaWx said:
Make no mistake about it, I am encouraged by what Mon's Euro weeklies and then what the model consensus showed on Tuesday for as we get out toward around 1/23 and later. Let's see if this holds or if they are rushing things.
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I'd bet the models are rushing things just a bit, this is just about as much a standard as the NW trend with modeling but time will tell of course.  Great research and sharing as usual Larry!
 
Looks like we will end up solidly AN for the month. I mean I love mid to upper 60's no doubt but this is impressive.


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metwannabe said:
GaWx said:
Make no mistake about it, I am encouraged by what Mon's Euro weeklies and then what the model consensus showed on Tuesday for as we get out toward around 1/23 and later. Let's see if this holds or if they are rushing things.
Click to expand...

I'd bet the models are rushing things just a bit, this is just about as much a standard as the NW trend with modeling but time will tell of course.  Great research and sharing as usual Larry!
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I think it may take us until the last few days of the month just to get close to normal.


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^I think that would be the best bet right now but a very long ways off. So, who knows? But even cooling from much above to norm by end of month would be great progress!
 
I agree...Let's just get back to normal by the end of the month and see what happens from there.


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whatalife said:
I agree...Let's just get back to normal by the end of the month and see what happens from there.


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I get restless by the end of January . by then you can see spring at the end of the tunnel

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Storm5 said:
whatalife said:
I agree...Let's just get back to normal by the end of the month and see what happens from there.


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I get restless by the end of January . by then you can see spring at the end of the tunnel

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Well it doesn't look like we have much of a choice but by the middle of Feb I'm starting to think about my garden.


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12z GFS keeps dumping in the West. :(
 
This month will mark 12 straight months of above normal temps in Atlanta. I wonder if that's ever happened before ?
 
Just remember before the '93 blizzard there was above normal temps. Not saying we'll have a repeat, just stating that anything can happen.

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SoutheastRidge said:
This month will mark 12 straight months of above normal temps in Atlanta. I wonder if that's ever happened before ?
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It looks like 8/1994-7/1995 likely was a period of 12 straight warmer than normal months at KATL based on the somewhat cooler normals of 1961-1990.
 
I think you could realistically say by the end of the month pattern change. Maybe as soon as 10 days from now.
 
deltadog03 said:
I think you could realistically say by the end of the month pattern change. Maybe as soon as 10 days from now.
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 Agreed and the 12Z GEFS agrees as it says the transition is 1/24 and we go to a little below normal 1/25 through the end of its run.
 
12z GFS did look like crap, for the southeast. When you look at the end of the run, I wonder in time that big cold bleeds east? I say Normal as well end of this month but then maybe first week of February we could possibly be little below avg before spring arrives
 
12z GFS...The cold air that is in AK right now that will push to the western states after a ridge builds west/SW of AK. Then the cold air will move east sometime after the 20th. It appears that the cold air comes in waves. It won't be a locked in cold air pattern. But most days late month should have below normal or near normal temps...somedays will have slightly above normal.
73c8cbee38171ff3217a0319d39b5e4a.jpg


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No need to worry about an OP run . Ensembles are the way to go this far out. GEFS does not agree with the OP. we have seen the gfs do this all season so far . Dump west only to correct it east

12z gfs
3c1e21889dba169eb1ab827fa5070083.jpg


12z gefs
18b3df8a83ce0012294eb2277cf742ec.jpg


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Storm5 said:
No need to worry about an OP run . Ensembles are the way to go this far out. GEFS does not agree with the OP. we have seen the gfs do this all season so far . Dump west only to correct it east

12z gfs
3c1e21889dba169eb1ab827fa5070083.jpg


12z gefs
18b3df8a83ce0012294eb2277cf742ec.jpg


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Very nice!


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