Pattern January Discussion

[SD]

 

[accu35]

Wow

 

[Storm5]

Sure looks like we're going to have a lot fun moving forward warm temps/severe weather/cold temps/possible winter storms...What's not to love about living in the SE during winter.


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yep, I'm not sure how anyone can complain about the pattern moving forward. Looks to hold everything

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[Rain Cold]

The jet split out in the Pacific is my favorite part!

 

[SD]

The jet split out in the Pacific is my favorite part!

Has a really nino look to it which I am surprised to get this year....I am skeptical about this type of configuration

 

[Rain Cold]

The jet split out in the Pacific is my favorite part!

Has a really nino look to it which I am surprised to get this year....I am skeptical about this type of configuration

Yeah, agreed, but it might have legs.  It's been steadily showing up for a while now.  We have to play the waiting game, unfortunately, but it is what it is.  If we can just get rid of the recurring -PNA configuration, that's a pretty good start!

 

[Storm5]

what a mess this is lol. so many options with this type of look. It's gonna be fun watching this pattern change . fun times ahead

day ten eps

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[whatalife]

what a mess this is lol. so many options with this type of look. It's gonna be fun watching this pattern change . fun times ahead

day ten eps

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SMH!


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[SD]

Looks at 12z Euro 

 

[Arcc]

I love the fact that a PV is sitting over the southern US. Never seen that before.

 

[pcbjr]

I love the fact that a PV is sitting over the southern US. Never seen that before.

Which map are you referring to?

 

[ATLwxfan]

Nothing says January in the south like weeds.

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[accu35]

79.4 degrees ATM. Just to show you 20s last week 70s this week.wounderful part about living in the southeast

 

[SnowHusky]

The high here reached 73 degrees. Oh yeah, the new fast server comes on this weekend for the site.

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[ForsythSnow]

Looks at 12z Euro 

Yeah, I looked at it and laughed. What is it been smoking?

 

[SnowisTheBest32]

So where's this Pattern Change people haven't shut up about?

 

[SD]

So where's this Pattern Change people haven't shut up about?

In the post before yours

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[Stormlover]

So where's this Pattern Change people haven't shut up about?

In the post before yours

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[SnowisTheBest32]

So where's this Pattern Change people haven't shut up about?

In the post before yours

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Cool. let's see if it actually happens

 

[ForsythSnow]

The high here reached 73 degrees. Oh yeah, the new fast server comes on this weekend for the site.

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Warm here in the southeast as a whole. We went from one extreme to the other in just a few days Quite a crazy change. Wonder if we will go back to the other extreme when the pattern gets better.

 

[SnowHusky]

The 18z GFS has a nice comma shaped form from a LP at hr 234. That's a blizzard middle part of the Nation at that hr...severe weather ahead of low. That's when the cold air gets back in here is after that storm.

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[accu35]

So where's this Pattern Change people haven't shut up about

We already seen a pattern change this winter, went from cold to warm and back to cold, that's a change. If you live in the southeast then that's what to be expected. Models looking good for the change in about 10 dsys, have faith.

 

[Tarheel1]

So where's this Pattern Change people haven't shut up about

We already seen a pattern change this winter, went from cold to warm and back to cold, that's a change. If you live in the southeast then that's what to be expected. Models looking good for the change in about 10 dsys, have faith.

NO, this is not normal, guess you glossed over my response above.  The RIDGE has been PERSISTENT since last Winter, this could turn out to be warmer than last winter, IMO. The pattern change is 15 days away and will be tomorrow and the next day. And you think we had a "warm" nose last week, wait till the next threat comes if any, the upper levels are so hot, if this was July or August we would be 105 or higher.

LOL! At this guy!
Did Wilkesboro start a new account?

 

[Storm5]

We already seen a pattern change this winter, went from cold to warm and back to cold, that's a change. If you live in the southeast then that's what to be expected. Models looking good for the change in about 10 dsys, have faith.

NO, this is not normal, guess you glossed over my response above.  The RIDGE has been PERSISTENT since last Winter, this could turn out to be warmer than last winter, IMO. The pattern change is 15 days away and will be tomorrow and the next day. And you think we had a "warm" nose last week, wait till the next threat comes if any, the upper levels are so hot, if this was July or August we would be 105 or higher.

LOL! At this guy!
Did Wilkesboro start a new account?

hahah sounds like it

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[ForsythSnow]

NO, this is not normal, guess you glossed over my response above.  The RIDGE has been PERSISTENT since last Winter, this could turn out to be warmer than last winter, IMO. The pattern change is 15 days away and will be tomorrow and the next day. And you think we had a "warm" nose last week, wait till the next threat comes if any, the upper levels are so hot, if this was July or August we would be 105 or higher.

LOL! At this guy!
Did Wilkesboro start a new account?

hahah sounds like it

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Doubt it's him. Just another person like him probably.  :dodgy:

 

[olhausen]

no one wants to talk about late next weekend for areas to our west.


ice storm city

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I was going to upload an image of the ice they are showing, then saw the site was back up, then forgot. Here it is.

Worst spot is 1.8" of ice. Imagine if that played out as even half.

What is more impressive are the temps and the high behind that. The 18Z GFS has a 1053 high in the Midwest, with -30 temps.

one inch of ice. na i think ill pass on that

79.4 degrees ATM. Just to show you 20s last week 70s this week.wounderful part about living in the southeast

 

[olhausen]

The cold front actually pierced northern Tennessee so I've been in the 40s all day today. It's a nice break from the heat without the extreme cold. I think 40s for highs are the perfect temps for non snowy days in the winter.

 

[SD]

This is utterly insane, I am older than probably all of you 58, so I know what I am talking about. This is not "normal" in any form or fashion, and, or any reasoning whatsoever> Yes, we have warm spells in winter, but not for 10-15 days at a time. I literally cannot even get in my outside hot tub or pool, because the water is so warm that it is actually not pleasant with 75 degree weather.

January 2006 says hello, so does January 74 and 49.

January and February of 1990 both sucked.

Let's not forget December 2015

I'm not saying the warmth isn't anomalous, some places have set record highs.....but this has happened before

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[SoutheastRidge]

Why does it seem so easy to have 2 weeks of 20+ degrees AN temps but it's nearly impossible to have 2 weeks of 20+ BN temps ?

 

[SD]

The GFS really wants to get rid of the strat pv

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[GeorgiaGirl]

So where's this Pattern Change people haven't shut up about

We already seen a pattern change this winter, went from cold to warm and back to cold, that's a change. If you live in the southeast then that's what to be expected. Models looking good for the change in about 10 dsys, have faith.

NO, this is not normal, guess you glossed over my response above.  The RIDGE has been PERSISTENT since last Winter, this could turn out to be warmer than last winter, IMO. The pattern change is 15 days away and will be tomorrow and the next day. And you think we had a "warm" nose last week, wait till the next threat comes if any, the upper levels are so hot, if this was July or August we would be 105 or higher.

Yeah this is simply not true. My dad, who is just a few years younger than you, says that he's seen mild periods all the time in the south in the winter, and he has never lived in Florida. Now to this extent for the past couple days is absolutely unbelievable in January (and I don't think I ever remember it happening until now, but I have seen it happen in December...and not just in 2015) but no, days in the mid 60s to 70 have popped up all of the time in January over the years.

Cold weather is simply never going to completely stick around in the Southeast. Even the monster cold snap of January 2014...it began to moderate immediately after the day it really bottomed out and after two days it was already back to around normal temps.

 

[BillT]

We already seen a pattern change this winter, went from cold to warm and back to cold, that's a change. If you live in the southeast then that's what to be expected. Models looking good for the change in about 10 dsys, have faith.

NO, this is not normal, guess you glossed over my response above.  The RIDGE has been PERSISTENT since last Winter, this could turn out to be warmer than last winter, IMO. The pattern change is 15 days away and will be tomorrow and the next day. And you think we had a "warm" nose last week, wait till the next threat comes if any, the upper levels are so hot, if this was July or August we would be 105 or higher.

Yeah this is simply not true. My dad, who is just a few years younger than you, says that he's seen mild periods all the time in the south in the winter, and he has never lived in Florida. Now to this extent for the past couple days is absolutely unbelievable in January (and I don't think I ever remember it happening until now, but I have seen it happen in December...and not just in 2015) but no, days in the mid 60s to 70 have popped up all of the time in January over the years.

Cold weather is simply never going to completely stick around in the Southeast. Even the monster cold snap of January 2014...it began to moderate immediately after the day it really bottomed out and after two days it was already back to around normal temps.

58 isnt the oldest person here......born in 51 in my case....and i water skied in march on fishtrap lake when i was in college during a warm spell.........also have seen plenty of cold winters in far eastern Ky......there is nothing happening now that hasnt happened many times in the past.

 

[JHS]

This is utterly insane, I am older than probably all of you 58, so I know what I am talking about.  This is not "normal" in any form or fashion, and, or any reasoning whatsoever> Yes, we have warm spells in winter, but not for 10-15 days at a time.  I literally cannot even get in my outside hot tub or pool, because the water is so warm that it is actually not pleasant with 75 degree weather.

January 2006 says hello, so does January 74 and 49.

January and February of 1990 both sucked.

Let's not forget December 2015

I'm not saying the warmth isn't anomalous, some places have set record highs.....but this has happened before

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I enjoyed Feb of 1990 though, with all of the rain and severe weather that month brought. Of course snow and winter weather lovers who remember that month hated it.

 

[ItsClimateChange]

Cold weather is simply never going to completely stick around in the Southeast. Even the monster cold snap of January 2014...it began to moderate immediately after the day it really bottomed out and after two days it was already back to around normal temps.

I don't know about FL or the more southern areas here in the southeast but i remember a cold blast in 08' or 09' lasting for about a week here in north AL & all the ponds froze over thick enough to walk down the middle all the way across. The particular one i crossed was around 3 acres in size. The pockets of Guntersville Lake froze over thick enough for my boss to drive his 4-wheeler out on.

If you want to go way back, January of 1940 the Tennessee River froze over thick enough for cars to drive on. Heard temps lasted for days below & just above zero. Almost impossible to believe.

 

[tonysc]

History says that if a winter storm is going to happen in the more southerly areas of the southeast that can get it, February is your most likely month for it to happen. It may not make sense and it's unfortunate because its not at the coldest time of the year, but it's true. The biggest winter storms happen in February/March.

It hasn't been long since the last significant winter storm that happened in February though, so it may be totally true that the more southerly areas are done this winter with their chances. They don't happen often but when they do happen they are big.

Well said. Interestingly, this historical frequency for far south winter storms tends to pick up only AFTER the first week of Feb. (2/8+) for whatever reason. The period 2/8-15 has had a good number of them whereas that's not the case for 2/1-7 and there have been a decent number of them all of the way into the first 5 or so days of March. Far south storm tracks for the win for these folks.

Yeah two of the biggest, and coldest snowstorms I've ever seen happened in mid Feb. 1973 and 1979.

 

[Tarheel1]

The GFS really wants to get rid of the strat pv
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That looks like a ying and yang type pattern, that will find away to screw us out of cold and snow! Confucius say" why you no snow"?

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Sure, warm spells always happen in the south in the winter, but it seems like the warm spells are becoming more frequent and lasting longer

 

[tonysc]

NO, this is not normal, guess you glossed over my response above.  The RIDGE has been PERSISTENT since last Winter, this could turn out to be warmer than last winter, IMO. The pattern change is 15 days away and will be tomorrow and the next day. And you think we had a "warm" nose last week, wait till the next threat comes if any, the upper levels are so hot, if this was July or August we would be 105 or higher.

Yeah this is simply not true. My dad, who is just a few years younger than you, says that he's seen mild periods all the time in the south in the winter, and he has never lived in Florida. Now to this extent for the past couple days is absolutely unbelievable in January (and I don't think I ever remember it happening until now, but I have seen it happen in December...and not just in 2015) but no, days in the mid 60s to 70 have popped up all of the time in January over the years.

Cold weather is simply never going to completely stick around in the Southeast. Even the monster cold snap of January 2014...it began to moderate immediately after the day it really bottomed out and after two days it was already back to around normal temps.

58 isnt the oldest person here......born in 51 in my case....and i water skied in march on fishtrap lake when i was in college during a warm spell.........also have seen plenty of cold winters in far eastern Ky......there is nothing happening now that hasnt happened many times in the past.

Yeah and all the extreme weather that they keep blaming on Global Warming, or Climate Change, or what ever they're wanting to call it now, has been happening all of my life as well, and I was born in 1955.

 

[Boosted]

So where's this Pattern Change people haven't shut up about

We already seen a pattern change this winter, went from cold to warm and back to cold, that's a change. If you live in the southeast then that's what to be expected. Models looking good for the change in about 10 dsys, have faith.

NO, this is not normal, guess you glossed over my response above.  The RIDGE has been PERSISTENT since last Winter, this could turn out to be warmer than last winter, IMO. The pattern change is 15 days away and will be tomorrow and the next day. And you think we had a "warm" nose last week, wait till the next threat comes if any, the upper levels are so hot, if this was July or August we would be 105 or higher.

 What are you talking about? Cold air never locks in at these latitudes for an extended length of time. We get it, it's warm right now. As for the pattern shift it's pretty evident on almost every global model solution if you would look. Also that "warm" nose is due to our close proximity to the always warm Gulf of Mexico. This isn't the first time warm air aloft has mitigated a winter event in the south. This is one of the many reasons why predicting winter wx in the south is so difficult. I suggest moving to a higher latitude if you want cold and snow locked in.

 

[RobertRath]

Why does it seem so easy to have 2 weeks of 20+ degrees AN temps but it's nearly impossible to have 2 weeks of 20+ BN temps ?

Often thought the same thing...It does seem like it's easier to get above normal temps, but it should  be more natural to have cold weather as opposed to warm because heat requires a source and cold is the absence of that heat source.