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Pattern January Discussion

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Oh wow, I can see Tropical Tidbits put the sleet as separate instead of combining the ZR and IP. Cool.

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Pattern change coming late month. Look at 12z GFS. We should start to see a +PNA and a -NAO after the 20th.

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Ain't that a beauty! That's what I want to see.
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NorthGAWinterWx said:
Oh wow, I can see Tropical Tidbits put the sleet as separate instead of combining the ZR and IP. Cool.

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I just wish they would make the sleet and ZR a completely different color. It seems all sites kind of have them look similar and I'm not sure why.
 
olhausen said:
NorthGAWinterWx said:
Oh wow, I can see Tropical Tidbits put the sleet as separate instead of combining the ZR and IP. Cool.

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Click to expand...

I just wish they would make the sleet and ZR a completely different color. It seems all sites kind of have them look similar and I'm not sure why.
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Yes, I agree, the colors need to be different. I think the reason why their the same is because the model thinks it's the the same p-type.

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I like where the pattern for late months is headed. It sucks to see the warm period is being pushed back by clouds and wedging
 
Major strat warming progged to occur in NW Canada in 8-16 Days. Suggests 30C rise. Should put 500mb ridge in NW Canada by end of January or first of Feb. resulting in an Eastern trough. MJO looks favorable too.
 
GEFS supports the pattern change late month.
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NorthGAWinterWx said:
Pattern change coming late month. Look at 12z GFS. We should start to see a +PNA and a -NAO after the 20th.

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Yep, that would be a welcomed sight. It's a shame we are going to waste 2 weeks of favored climo. Oh well, maybe we can get a cad event in there somewhere to hold us over until the pattern re-shuffles later this month.
 
I rather take my chances on a pattern change late January into February, that's our best winter storms periods.
 
SASQUATCH said:
Major strat warming progged to occur in NW Canada in 8-16 Days. Suggests 30C rise. Should put 500mb ridge in NW Canada by end of January or first of Feb. resulting in an Eastern trough. MJO looks favorable too.
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the mjo forecasts have been overrated so far this winter busting badly

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Looks like several runs of the GFS have a signal of a storm system that will change the pattern after the 20th. Going to have to watch that system and where it will go. Probably going to be a cutter with severe weather in the south again before a major cool down if it continues showing up.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Looks like several runs of the GFS have a signal of a storm system that will change the pattern after the 20th. Going to have to watch that system and where it will go. Probably going to be a cutter with severe weather in the south again before a major cool down if it continues showing up.
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Lines up nicely with Cosgrove and others thinking of a flip to colder beginning around the 22nd.  Yeah, GFS is picking up on something...12z looked interesting after 1/22.  Guess we shall see!  It's been a weird past year for weather so nothing would surprise me at this point.

Side note: Still got snow and ice around in shady spots... but it's finally melting quickly now.  48 degrees.
 
really like where the pattern is headed towards the end of the month . Looks like we will get a 10 -15 day window as we head into February . Some nice signs are now showing up on OP runs and the ensembles

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Now we need a storm or two during the pattern change. The Euro monthly does show some storms coming up. Not too much focused on a storm yet. Just stating this for a side note.

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I'm hopeful but we need to get the pattern change locked in before we start considering storms...my interest will be peaked if we do see what Webber described in an earlier post.
 
GFS has that low again. Isn't this around the time storms like to show up on the GFS that have a chance? It may not be our chance, but it is a system, and a strong one at this range. Also come crazy looking energy this run.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.png

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ForsythSnow said:
GFS has that low again. Isn't this around the time storms like to show up on the GFS that have a chance? It may not be our chance, but it is a system, and a strong one at this range. Also come crazy strong energy this run.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_43.png
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The Euro monthly showed a storm coming up from the GOM around the 20th. That one should be the one that the GFS is trying to pick up on. Try not to focus too much on a storm at that range. There are too many variables at play at that range.

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