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Pattern January Discussion

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BHS1975 said:
SoutheastRidge said:
ATLwxfan said:
I get it. But last summer was brutally hot so we didn't get enough of these milder days a spring quickly went to summer.


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Last summer was so miserable and never ending ! 2016 in general was probably the warmest year I can ever remember.
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Yeap didn't cool down much at night. That's what 400+ Ppm CO2 gets you. Plants like the supercharged atmosphere but humans don't fare to well.


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but reality is more humans DIE from cold weather than from hot.........reality is healthier plants = healthier lives for the rest of us.
 
SD said:
ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11.png
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Haha what a mess

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Shawn said:
Everyone accepted their upper 60s and 70s.  They will come back when they hear colder weather in their forecasts.
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That's just what I was thinking Shawn. I take some breaks from it sometimes when it gets mild and boring. I really do appreciate you guys efforts in getting this forum up and running and looking forward to the improvements y'all have coming up.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
DLI4SCwx said:
Shawn said:
I say enjoy them because if modeling is right, the first half of Feb at the least will be rocking for many in the Southeast!  I am wearing shorts right now, and I am sick!  That's not normal.  But I think it was Wilkesboro that said there will be a slingshot effect.  It will come... sooner than later.
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I hope you get better soon Shawn.  Sorry to see you are sick dude.  I don't know about the shorts though! LOL   Hoping the models are latching onto something with a colder and more active storm pattern entering into Feb.  Climo wise, that'd be our time frame down here.
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I don't understand why Feb is better climo wise than Jan ?
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Me either but I've seen some of our biggest and coldest snowstorms in mid Feb here in the Upstate of SC.
 
Arcc said:
Both OP GFS, GEFS and EPS all show a broad based trough coming out of the west with a deep fetch from the Caribbean. When you get a major pattern change, you normally get a good storm. Watch for a severe weather outbreak in the 192-226hr time frame.
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You're right Arcc, in fact I remember reading a long time ago I think in the Old Farmers Almanac, that blizzards often come right after unusually warm weather in winter.
 
SnowisTheBest32 said:
ATLwxfan said:
It's amazing outside! How can you not enjoy this? My only problem is that I may have weeds to pull if we don't cool down at the end of the month.


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EASY answer because it's winter. we have enough days like this from March-late October early november
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Good answer Snow.....
 
tonysc said:
Arcc said:
Both OP GFS, GEFS and EPS all show a broad based trough coming out of the west with a deep fetch from the Caribbean. When you get a major pattern change, you normally get a good storm. Watch for a severe weather outbreak in the 192-226hr time frame.
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You're right Arcc, in fact I remember reading a long time ago I think in the Old Farmers Almanac, that blizzards often come right after unusually warm weather in winter.
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Speaking of blizzards, I found this amazingly satellite imagery clip of the blizzard of '93 today from YouTube. Breath taking.
https://youtu.be/tb5E1qmCdH0

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tonysc said:
SoutheastRidge said:
DLI4SCwx said:
I hope you get better soon Shawn.  Sorry to see you are sick dude.  I don't know about the shorts though! LOL   Hoping the models are latching onto something with a colder and more active storm pattern entering into Feb.  Climo wise, that'd be our time frame down here.
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I don't understand why Feb is better climo wise than Jan ?
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Me either but I've seen some of our biggest and coldest snowstorms in mid Feb here in the Upstate of SC.
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Feb is a great month for ice too and I'm afraid that'll be what we get this Feb. The usual CAD areas would be the most likely area for this. Even though I'm looking for ice, Feb can be great for snow. The biggest snow here where I am came at the end of Feb in 2004. 12 inches of snow. Portions of York county in SC got 20 inches of snow from that one.
 
Judging by some of the tweets I am seeing the Euro weeklies must be cold

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I think brick hacked the weeklies. Cold , cold and more cold. Stormy , stormy pattern

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
Storm5 said:
from the weeklies
80253b03b8e5a98ca34d668d39d51837.gif

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I'll take her too. Lol.
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JB's all in on the weeklies!! What could go wrong now!? :(
From his bathtub, to yours!
 
Storm5 said:
whatalife said:
Weeklies for the win!!!!


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I mean holy hell they are sexy. Larry will love them

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 I think I'm in love! I like the +PNA of of weeks 3-6 as well as the -NAO/-AO of weeks 4-6. These are pretty similar to the Monday run. Precip. is mainly near normal, which is plentiful for well inland locations at this time of year.
 Let's hope this verifies. Of course, wise folks take these with a huge grain, especially the later weeks. Regardless, they sure are purty!
 
GaWx said:
Storm5 said:
whatalife said:
Weeklies for the win!!!!


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I mean holy hell they are sexy. Larry will love them

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 I think I'm in love! I like the +PNA of of weeks 3-6 as well as the -NAO/-AO of weeks 4-6. These are pretty similar to the Monday run. Precip. is mainly near normal, which is plentiful for well inland locations at this time of year.
 Let's hope this verifies. Of course, wise folks take these with a huge grain, especially the later weeks. Regardless, they sure are purty!
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you left out the -epo lol . it was almost a run that's too good to be true

taken lightly no doubt , I've never liked the weeklies nor have I ever thought they are any good .

but the are fun to look at

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Oh please bring some cold to us Soon MR North. My temps of 67-69 are incredibly torchy and almost 25 degrees above normal for this time of year. It's not so much the daytime that bugs me. It's the fact that at night time lower 60s and upper 50s are hanging around for lows. That's over 30 degrees above normal which is ridiculous.
 
Before we get pumped about the weeklies we do need to keep an eye on the severe threats coming up

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SD said:
Before we get pumped about the weeklies we do need to keep an eye on the severe threats coming up

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at this point a threat thread seems needed

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Storm5 said:
SD said:
Before we get pumped about the weeklies we do need to keep an eye on the severe threats coming up

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at this point a threat thread seems needed

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Done

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there have been requests for an educational type thread. we will be adding alot of content over the next few weeks on the blog which will be linked to this site soon . for now here is the direct link to the blog

Blog.southernwx.com

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olhausen said:
Oh please bring some cold to us Soon MR North. My temps of 67-69 are incredibly torchy and almost 25 degrees above normal for this time of year. It's not so much the daytime that bugs me. It's the fact that at night time lower 60s and upper 50s are hanging around for lows. That's over 30 degrees above normal which is ridiculous.
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Yeah, I almost had to turn on the AC last night to sleep.
 
Storm5 said:
there have been requests for an educational type thread. we will be adding alot of content over the next few weeks on the blog which will be linked to this site soon . for now here is the direct link to the blog

Blog.southernwx.com

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Sweet
 
While it'll be nice to have a few moderate/heavy rain events in these next couple weeks, it would be nice if these longer duration events modeled actually verify come game time instead of in/out much quicker. We need an all day soaker here in the drought stricken southeast.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
tonysc said:
Arcc said:
Both OP GFS, GEFS and EPS all show a broad based trough coming out of the west with a deep fetch from the Caribbean. When you get a major pattern change, you normally get a good storm. Watch for a severe weather outbreak in the 192-226hr time frame.
Click to expand...

You're right Arcc, in fact I remember reading a long time ago I think in the Old Farmers Almanac, that blizzards often come right after unusually warm weather in winter.
Click to expand...
Speaking of blizzards, I found this amazingly satellite imagery clip of the blizzard of '93 today from YouTube. Breath taking.
https://youtu.be/tb5E1qmCdH0

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Yeah I remember all the stormy weather associated with the Storm of the Century, and then by the time I got home from work that next day at 4:30 in the afternoon, it was snowing from northern Florida, all the way up the Atlantic coast to Maine, and all the way west to the Mississippi River. It was awesome.
 
Storm5 said:
there have been requests for an educational type thread. we will be adding alot of content over the next few weeks on the blog which will be linked to this site soon . for now here is the direct link to the blog

Blog.southernwx.com

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Thanks Storm and Shane for creating this resource.

Ryan
 
ItsClimateChange said:
While it'll be nice to have a few moderate/heavy rain events in these next couple weeks, it would be nice if these longer duration events modeled actually verified come game time instead of in/out much quicker. We need an all day soaker here in the drought stricken southeast.
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Both Euro and GFS say between 3.5 and 5" for North Central and N AL next 10 days - hopefully that verifies!
 
deltadog03 said:
Lol they must be really good then
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Beginning Jan 30 all the way thru February only 1 color is needed...blue - where you are in the SE depends on which shade of blue for you
 
Supershow said:
ItsClimateChange said:
While it'll be nice to have a few moderate/heavy rain events in these next couple weeks, it would be nice if these longer duration events modeled actually verified come game time instead of in/out much quicker. We need an all day soaker here in the drought stricken southeast.
Click to expand...

Both Euro and GFS say between 3.5 and 5" for North Central and N AL next 10 days - hopefully that verifies!
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Yeah it seems like models hold on to higher rain totals for a few days only to slowly keep dropping off as we near the events. As you said, hopefully next 10 days actually verify. Also, glad CA is getting much needed rain with more to come showing up on the models.
 
Ryano said:
Storm5 said:
there have been requests for an educational type thread. we will be adding alot of content over the next few weeks on the blog which will be linked to this site soon . for now here is the direct link to the blog

Blog.southernwx.com

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Thanks Storm and Shane for creating this resource.

Ryan
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This is great stuff
 
Boy, wish end of oz GFS run would verify. System after system, Cold/stormy.
 
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