Pattern January Discussion

[SD]

Gotta love the huge -nao on the euro at day 10. It's had a -bias of the nao so it's suspect at best

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[GeorgiaGirl]

Gotta worry about the pattern first. I have said that if there's going to be a winter storm, the GFS will show the idea of it, then lose it and bring it back (and it doesn't matter when unless we're under 100 hours), but the pattern is the bigger worry and a pattern change needs to be hammered out before we start talking about storms again.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Gotta worry about the pattern first. I have said that if there's going to be a winter storm, the GFS will show the idea of it, then lose it and bring it back (and it doesn't matter when unless we're under 100 hours), but the pattern is the bigger worry and a pattern change needs to be hammered out before we start talking about storms again.

Agreed, very good advice. Folks sometimes only focus on the storms that show up, when they should be looking at the bigger picture. Get the cold pattern established first, then the storms will follow. The trends look promising for a pattern re-shuffle around the 3rd week of Jan.

 

[SnowHusky]

Gotta worry about the pattern first. I have said that if there's going to be a winter storm, the GFS will show the idea of it, then lose it and bring it back (and it doesn't matter when unless we're under 100 hours), but the pattern is the bigger worry and a pattern change needs to be hammered out before we start talking about storms again.

I'm focusing on the pattern. I just noted some storms coming up during the pattern change from the Euro monthly. The Euro monthly is different than the operational modeling. With the pattern change we're seeing currently there would be a -NAO and a +PNA which would mean more storms in the east. More stronger, consolidated storms at that. The talks of a storm doesn't need to be completely ruled out. Details of storm this early need to be ruled out? Yes.

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[olhausen]

Sweet a fantasy storm for us! Oh wait it's over 300 hours out but here it is anyways since we have nothing else to do weather wise ATM.

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[accu35]

I know everyone says don't worried about a storm this far out and your right, but I tracked last week's winter storm since before Christmas, that was first fantasy storm at 300 hr that actually verified

 

[olhausen]

no one wants to talk about late next weekend for areas to our west.


ice storm city

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I was going to upload an image of the ice they are showing, then saw the site was back up, then forgot. Here it is.

Worst spot is 1.8" of ice. Imagine if that played out as even half.

What is more impressive are the temps and the high behind that. The 18Z GFS has a 1053 high in the Midwest, with -30 temps.

one inch of ice. na i think ill pass on that

I know everyone says don't worried about a storm this far out and your right, but I tracked last week's winter storm since before Christmas, that was first fantasy storm at 300 hr that actually verified

 

[olhausen]

For sure if it shows up for a number of runs but I'm not getting my hopes up this far out after one good run

Edit: man I don't know what I just did but I was trying to quote accu35's post.

 

[ForsythSnow]

I know everyone says don't worried about a storm this far out and your right, but I tracked last week's winter storm since before Christmas, that was first fantasy storm at 300 hr that actually verified

It's not so much tracking a storm, but a signal for a storm. When I said the GFS was showing a storm and said that it was something to track, I wasn't meaning that I think there is a storm coming, just a signal, that's all.

 

[GaWx]

Major strat warming progged to occur in NW Canada in 8-16 Days. Suggests 30C rise.  Should put 500mb ridge in NW Canada by end of January or first of Feb. resulting in an Eastern trough.  MJO looks favorable too.

the mjo forecasts have been overrated so far this winter busting badly  

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Yeah, even the EPS, the best MJO forecast model out there imo, has busted pretty badly recently. The MJO is now near the COD in phase 5, a warm phase on average. It had been forecasted by the EPS to be quite a bit to the left of this....closer to the middle of the circle,
A few days ago, it had the near perfect mid-January MJO forecast for the best chance for cold in the SE, which looked similar to this:
 


 
That is optimal for best cold chances based on the average temperature anomalies in each phase going back to 1975:
 



 
 Though it has changed some, the EPS still has a rather favorable forecast. If I could change it, I'd rather not have it go outside the COD like it does here but at least it isn't too far outside and it then goes back inside within 6 days:
 

 

[WeatherLC]

Hey Larry,

What are your thoughts on the upcoming rainfall amounts for the rest of winter? Do you believe the drought will contuine into spring?

 

[GaWx]

Hey Larry,

What are your thoughts on the upcoming rainfall amounts for the rest of winter? Do you believe the drought will contuine into spring?

Dustin,
 ENSOwise, it is a hard call because it is neutral negative to at most a weak La Nina. Whereas that supports a somewhat drier than normal north GA, the signal is not strong like it would be for a moderate to strong La Nina. I'm leaning a bit drier than normal but nothing drastic. Besides, the model consensus has wet returning for the 6-10. The 11-15 is a tough call right now.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Sweet a fantasy storm for us! Oh wait it's over 300 hours out but here it is anyways since we have nothing else to do weather wise ATM.

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Yep, that one looks sweet.... Now, it we can get that low to run the coastline instead of the apps, we would be in business... plenty of time to get the trough axis to shift east... lol

 

[SD]

The disruption and displacement of the strat pv is nice to see and leads some credence to the idea a return of cold weather is possible late in the month.

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[accu35]

I know everyone says don't worried about a storm this far out and your right, but I tracked last week's winter storm since before Christmas, that was first fantasy storm at 300 hr that actually verified

It's not so much tracking a storm, but a signal for a storm. When I said the GFS was showing a storm and said that it was something to track, I wasn't meaning that I think there is a storm coming, just a signal, that's all.

Good read, I was just making a point that sometimes they do verify this far out but not all the time. Everyone was mentioning don't focus on a storm this far out I was just making a point about last week storm. I been on this weather forum for years now to know how the storm signal wording works out, lol. You always want to look at the pattern and signals for a storm.

 

[accu35]

I know everyone says don't worried about a storm this far out and your right, but I tracked last week's winter storm since before Christmas, that was first fantasy storm at 300 hr that actually verified

It's not so much tracking a storm, but a signal for a storm. When I said the GFS was showing a storm and said that it was something to track, I wasn't meaning that I think there is a storm coming, just a signal, that's all.

Good read, I was just making a point that sometimes they do verify this far out but not all the time. Everyone was mentioning don't focus on a storm this far out I was just making a point about last week storm. I been on this weather forum for years now to know how the storm signal wording works out, lol. You always want to look at the pattern and signals for a storm.

 

[Storm5]

Sweet a fantasy storm for us! Oh wait it's over 300 hours out but here it is anyways since we have nothing else to do weather wise ATM.

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Yep, that one looks sweet.... Now, it we can get that low to run the coastline instead of the apps, we would be in business... plenty of time to get the trough axis to shift east... lol

and plenty of time for it to cut to the lakes lol

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[whatalife]

Sweet a fantasy storm for us! Oh wait it's over 300 hours out but here it is anyways since we have nothing else to do weather wise ATM.

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Yep, that one looks sweet.... Now, it we can get that low to run the coastline instead of the apps, we would be in business... plenty of time to get the trough axis to shift east... lol

and plenty of time for it to cut to the lakes lol

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LOL! Those poor lakes have to be tired of those cutters.


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[accu35]

Yep, that one looks sweet.... Now, it we can get that low to run the coastline instead of the apps, we would be in business... plenty of time to get the trough axis to shift east... lol

and plenty of time for it to cut to the lakes lol

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LOL! Those poor lakes have to be tired of those cutters.


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Cutters or clippers

 

[GaWx]

Make no mistake about it, I am encouraged by what Mon's Euro weeklies and then what the model consensus showed on Tuesday for as we get out toward around 1/23 and later. Let's see if this holds or if they are rushing things.