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Pattern January Discussion
- Thread starter Storm5
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haven't had time to look yet. that's good news Larry . Sounds like we are on trackGaWx said:
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wow the 12z eps looks really good . there is actually really good model agreement now as we roll forward for a return to colder weather . Lots to consider, can we get the the STJ involved? How long will the pattern hold ? Wildcard is the PNA, if it comes to life we could have some real fun.
I'm still on the fence about the sustainability of the pattern . I for sure don't see any longterm cold pattern locking in. still feel like it's going to be a quick window and that's fine with me.
January 26th - February 12th seems to be our window at this point.
Fun times ahead
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I'm still on the fence about the sustainability of the pattern . I for sure don't see any longterm cold pattern locking in. still feel like it's going to be a quick window and that's fine with me.
January 26th - February 12th seems to be our window at this point.
Fun times ahead
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Just sucks that we can't get blocking. Or we are just going to have 2-3 days cold shots, but we could time one out like this past weekend! With the long term set up looking more Nino-like, with split flow possibilities, would really love to have blocking actually materialize!Storm5 said:
whatalife
Moderator
Storm5 said:
I would agree that given the setup we have 2-3 wks of a good setup and after that winter may be over in the SE but we'll see.
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VegasEagle
Member
Shawn said:
I am ready for it!
What is the exciting news ?
Temps surging into 60's for next 7 days in SE TN. Cloudy and spotty rain. & little sun.
Storm5 said:
Yep, and we can now add the 18Z GEFS, which has similar pattern change timing to the 12Z GEFS, if not a little faster though not as fast as the 12Z EPS.
Just to give an idea of the change per the 18Z GEFS: 850's average a whopping +8C to +9C now through 1/23 for Birmingham-ATL-AHN-GSP-Charlotte-RDU corridor. Then they fall to 0C 1/25-1/27 (end of run, when E US trough firmly in place). That represents about a 15F drop, which is quite a clearcut signal considering we're talking ensemble mean here as well as being pretty far out in time.
So, in summary, change is very likely a coming for the last week of January but not before we have a pretty long run of some very pleasant wx dominating. It is hard to beat the ups and downs of a typical southern winter!
There are some good things in the works. They should start trickling in soonSoutheastRidge said:
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Personally, I don't mind relatively long breaks in the cold. I would think that constant cold for months would get a little old.GaWx said:
honestly at this point we will have to just take our chances with timing which isn't anything new with how the winters have gone over the past few years .Tarheel1 said:
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Golf7070
Member
SD, do you think it will be another transient type pattern setting up or does this one have merit with it or isn't too early to know for sure? I know I've heard talk about a little strat warming and things changing in pacific but wasn't sure if that would be enough to shake things up compared to what's been happening so far. I personally don't want another transient setup because it's tough, esp in the south. I'm rooting for a different setup compared to what we have had so far.SD said:There are some good things in the works. They should start trickling in soonSoutheastRidge said:
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whatalife
Moderator
Starting to get a little excited for the period of Jan 25ish-Feb 12ish. Looks like some possible fun and games.
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I think that we will transition to a colder pattern in the 10-15 day period. The ridge/above normal heights in East Canada will play a big role. I noticed the euro control developed a Rex block in this area on the 12z run which seems a little extreme. All things considered if we can see the pacific jet retract and get some pacific help we could get a decent sustained period of cold. I will say I don't think it's impossible to think we are tracking a threat in about 2 weeksGolf7070 said:SD, do you think it will be another transient type pattern setting up or does this one have merit with it or isn't too early to know for sure? I know I've heard talk about a little strat warming and things changing in pacific but wasn't sure if that would be enough to shake things up compared to what's been happening so far. I personally don't want another transient setup because it's tough, esp in the south. I'm rooting for a different setup compared to what we have had so far.SD said:There are some good things in the works. They should start trickling in soonSoutheastRidge said:
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Yep really want to slow the pac jet. Looking near the Aleutians to the goa in about days 7-10whatalife said:
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Well the last time you guys predicted we would enter a good period you were right. I remember people in December saying Jan 5-10 was a good period so I'm trusting you are right this time when you say late Jan and early Feb is another good period.
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