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Pattern January Discussion

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Well ensembles are agreeing to an extent, the pattern change is coming. Bank on it. They likely aren't strong enough with the Eastern trough yet. Still trying to bury it half-way in the West.
 
Correction: The 0Z GEFS looks as good as the 12Z EPS with transition being 1/23, near normal 1/24, colder than normal 1/25-6, and much colder than normal 1/27-8+ (end of run).
 
Shawn said:
I say enjoy them because if modeling is right, the first half of Feb at the least will be rocking for many in the Southeast!  I am wearing shorts right now, and I am sick!  That's not normal.  But I think it was Wilkesboro that said there will be a slingshot effect.  It will come... sooner than later.
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I hope you get better soon Shawn.  Sorry to see you are sick dude.  I don't know about the shorts though! LOL   Hoping the models are latching onto something with a colder and more active storm pattern entering into Feb.  Climo wise, that'd be our time frame down here.
 
DLI4SCwx said:
Shawn said:
I say enjoy them because if modeling is right, the first half of Feb at the least will be rocking for many in the Southeast!  I am wearing shorts right now, and I am sick!  That's not normal.  But I think it was Wilkesboro that said there will be a slingshot effect.  It will come... sooner than later.
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I hope you get better soon Shawn.  Sorry to see you are sick dude.  I don't know about the shorts though! LOL   Hoping the models are latching onto something with a colder and more active storm pattern entering into Feb.  Climo wise, that'd be our time frame down here.
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I don't understand why Feb is better climo wise than Jan ?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
DLI4SCwx said:
Shawn said:
I say enjoy them because if modeling is right, the first half of Feb at the least will be rocking for many in the Southeast!  I am wearing shorts right now, and I am sick!  That's not normal.  But I think it was Wilkesboro that said there will be a slingshot effect.  It will come... sooner than later.
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I hope you get better soon Shawn.  Sorry to see you are sick dude.  I don't know about the shorts though! LOL   Hoping the models are latching onto something with a colder and more active storm pattern entering into Feb.  Climo wise, that'd be our time frame down here.
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I don't understand why Feb is better climo wise than Jan ?
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 Despite Feb. being a little warmer than Jan., there is a little further south average storm track in Feb. I think. I believe this may be due to 500 mb being slightly colder then though I'm not sure. I do know as per my earlier post that a good number of deep south and SE coastal sig snows were during the 2/8-2/28 timeframe. OTOH, ATL's longterm snowfall has been higher in Jan than in Feb. But, interestingly enough, Feb. was the biggest snow month in ATL back in the 1880's-1900 period when Feb. averaged a good bit colder for whatever reason.
 
olhausen said:
I don't understand why Feb is better climo wise than Jan ?

For whatever reason the last decade has brought many February and even early march snow storms to the south.
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https://www.google.com/amp/amp.livescience.com/50103-february-temperatures-divide-us.html. this will help and give you reasons why Fab February is normally colder/big storms.
 
Shawn said:
Well ensembles are agreeing to an extent, the pattern change is coming. Bank on it. They likely aren't strong enough with the Eastern trough yet. Still trying to bury it half-way in the West.
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I agree that the models are looking better, but it needs to be consistent and get inside 256 hours to have a better idea I feel. Usually if the GFS can hold a pattern change from the long range into the medium-long range, it can reel it in.
 
Both OP GFS, GEFS and EPS all show a broad based trough coming out of the west with a deep fetch from the Caribbean. When you get a major pattern change, you normally get a good storm. Watch for a severe weather outbreak in the 192-226hr time frame.
 
We are taking our daughter to GWL Feb 5th weekend for her bday. I would love some snow then. Would be her best bday ever.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Shawn said:
Well ensembles are agreeing to an extent, the pattern change is coming. Bank on it.  They likely aren't strong enough with the Eastern trough yet.  Still trying to bury it half-way in the West.
Click to expand...

I agree that the models are looking better, but it needs to be consistent and get inside 256 hours to have a better idea I feel. Usually if the GFS can hold a pattern change from the long range into the medium-long range, it can reel it in.
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Why 256? 10 days plus 16 hours? :huh:
 
First of all, I am so glad I found you guys again! You are a pleasure to read, and loaded with weather wisdom....Just wondering how y'all see the timing of the pattern change.
It seems that the models are usually one or two systems ahead of a pattern change (especially to colder) , I know the 23rd - 25th of Jan seems like the target for now, and it is a long way off, do you guys think it might actually wind up occurring the last of jan. to the first of Feb for the South east?
 
Shawn said:
Models aren't looking too bad from a long-range ensemble perspective.

About our big things coming up...
- For one, I can already say we will be moving to a very very fast server soon.  In other words, no more lagging problems or website going down during events!

In even bigger news, we have some really special things up our sleeves that will make people say "really? how?".  We don't want to announce that quite yet.  But we have confirmation and it's going to be quite awesome & unique!  We may need your help with it actually.  :)  Lets get the new server up and we will get back to you on it.
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If the big news is a daily web-cam diary of coreytucker, count me in!
 
Notice the CAD areas warm up will be tempered significantly this weekend and some of us up near the Va border going to struggle to get out of the 30's Saturday especially if we get some rain with it. That's a fairly strong HP to the north and I see models show upper 20's dp's pushing as far south as SC/NC border......
 
it's impossible to describe this tweet
13e931c1ac88818409a25ae89375cf79.jpg


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SASQUATCH said:
Shawn said:
Models aren't looking too bad from a long-range ensemble perspective.

About our big things coming up...
- For one, I can already say we will be moving to a very very fast server soon.  In other words, no more lagging problems or website going down during events!

In even bigger news, we have some really special things up our sleeves that will make people say "really? how?".  We don't want to announce that quite yet.  But we have confirmation and it's going to be quite awesome & unique!  We may need your help with it actually.  :)  Lets get the new server up and we will get back to you on it.
Click to expand...

If the big news is a daily web-cam diary of coreytucker, count me in!
Click to expand...
hahah omgd that would be epic

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Arcc said:
Both OP GFS, GEFS and EPS all show a broad based trough coming out of the west with a deep fetch from the Caribbean. When you get a major pattern change, you normally get a good storm. Watch for a severe weather outbreak in the 192-226hr time frame.
Click to expand...
agree with this 100 percent. wouldn't a severe weather event actually

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