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Pattern January Discussion

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Okay, let one of us know through private message if you are still seeing the post issue. We have a slight database redundancy right now that is miscounting thread numbers.
 
pcbjr said:
Any way to get newest posts at the top of the page, with the upgrade?
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Yeah, on mobile, it keeps taking me back to first post on the thread and my last post didn't show up! Go Tarheels
 
pcbjr said:
Any way to get newest posts at the top of the page, with the upgrade?
Click to expand...

This is a recurring issue that will be fixed on the upgrade. ;)

We are very close, just ironing out some decisions. Should have been done yesterday, but nothing ever goes easy, lol.
 
As we get closer to late month, we should start to see stronger blocking between 180 and 120W.
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10-14 day outlook block (GFS)
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Love how things are looking down the road. BTW I love how JB glosses over this warm up...Goes right into the end of the month...Oh and hints at another cold and stormy winter next winter.


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Lol, I think JB goes too far. There's no way you can tell what next winter will bring. You can start telling what next winter will bring maybe early as late summer and during the fall months.

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Can someone tell me if im right or wrong about this. I think this potential cold pattern will have alot to do with if a mjo gets started in the cold phases. I mean,  changes in the pacific.  Also,  I would feel better if the Euro starts showing a possible ssw or even MMW event other than the gfs. That imo  :dodgy:
 
Stormlover said:
Euro whipping the GFS
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NAM whooped them both, from about 3 days out , anyway! Mostly with regards to precip types, during our last " winter storm"
 
Storm5 said:
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Storm, I'm not the best at correlating what the possibilities at the surface are from what I see at 500mb.I know it allows for cold in the east, but does this set up allow for any storm development in the gulf?
 
Storm5 said:
a67d7284c9f5d754a9575a6ba0461ed4.jpg
746c419cb76a2ff39f60ea1c9a4caa64.jpg


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Pac ridge, east coast trough possible energy undercutting that ridge....what's not to love. Seems it was about this frame prior to our last winter storm that the signs started showing up. Looking great moving forward.

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WEATHERBOYROY said:
Storm5 said:
a67d7284c9f5d754a9575a6ba0461ed4.jpg
746c419cb76a2ff39f60ea1c9a4caa64.jpg


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Storm, I'm not the best at correlating what the possibilities at the surface are from what I see at 500mb.I know it allows for cold in the east, but does this set up allow for any storm development in the gulf?
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it sets up for all kinds of possibilities, one being gulf involvement, yes. If we actually do get a western ridge we will start looking for energy diving down the back side or undercutting the ridge via an active southern jet. If we can get the look above with an active southern jet look out. It's actually more of a Nino look and would be a pattern we have yet to see so far this winter . Remember up until now we have been in a pattern dominated by the epo. Now it looks like we will get a -epo/+pna pattern with brief blocking from time to time .Active fun times ahead

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Where the heck is Brick...??? We might need him to start another winter storm thread for us. He must still be in hiding.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Where the heck is Brick...??? We might need him to start another winter storm thread for us. He must still be in hiding.
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Did he end up not getting much frozen stuff?
 
Flo said:
Cad Wedge NC said:
Where the heck is Brick...??? We might need him to start another winter storm thread for us. He must still be in hiding.
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Did he end up not getting much frozen stuff?
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I don't think he did. But if we get another threat, Raleigh area may have another run at getting snow. I am sure he will be back out once we have an actual system to track.
 
Storm5 said:
it sets up for all kinds of possibilities,  one being gulf involvement, yes.   If we actually do get a western ridge we will start looking for energy diving down the back side or undercutting the ridge via an active southern jet. If we can get the look above with an active southern jet look out. It's actually more of a Nino look. Active fun times ahead

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Thanks Storm5, so 500mb is sort of the playing field  the surface and the other atmospheric level features play on. makes sense. :idea:
 
The way it is looking right now is that we will have a severe weather line around the 22-25 time frame, and then towards the end of the month/ first days of February, the pattern looks favorable to send a storm our way.
 
WEATHERBOYROY said:
Storm5 said:
it sets up for all kinds of possibilities,  one being gulf involvement, yes.   If we actually do get a western ridge we will start looking for energy diving down the back side or undercutting the ridge via an active southern jet. If we can get the look above with an active southern jet look out. It's actually more of a Nino look. Active fun times ahead

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Thanks Storm5, so 500mb is sort of the playing field  the surface and the other atmospheric level features play on. makes sense. :idea:
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yes that's a good way of looking at it. what happens at the surface is a direct result of what happens at 500mb. So basically a result of how all the players interact

Good news for us is, the field is about to be crowded with many players and the game should be exciting :)

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Cad Wedge NC said:
Where the heck is Brick...??? We might need him to start another winter storm thread for us. He must still be in hiding.
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He will be back by weeks end no doubt. He always comes back right before things start getting exciting

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Things about to get exciting, like that Clemson game the other day!? Hope the players on the field end up being like Clemson players and not that other team! :)
6z GFS = glory
 
metwannabe said:
Storm5 said:
a67d7284c9f5d754a9575a6ba0461ed4.jpg
746c419cb76a2ff39f60ea1c9a4caa64.jpg


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Pac ridge, east coast trough possible energy undercutting that ridge....what's not to love.  Seems it was about this frame prior to our last winter storm that the signs started showing up.  Looking great moving forward.  

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Click to expand...

Depends, that pattern could be a good one or a massive tease. You are flooding the US with Pacific air and possibly blocking the Arctic. That could produce but you are talking about super marginal.
 
metwannabe said:
Storm5 said:
a67d7284c9f5d754a9575a6ba0461ed4.jpg
746c419cb76a2ff39f60ea1c9a4caa64.jpg


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Click to expand...
Pac ridge, east coast trough possible energy undercutting that ridge....what's not to love.  Seems it was about this frame prior to our last winter storm that the signs started showing up.  Looking great moving forward.  

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Click to expand...

Depends. That may produce or be a massive teade. You are flooding NA with Pacific air and effectively locking the Arctic. That is super marginal.
 
snaowstud said:
Tarheel1 said:
Things about to get exciting, like that Clemson game the other day!? Hope the players on the field end up being like Clemson players and not that other team! :)
6z GFS = glory
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What "glory" are you seeing in the 6z GFS?
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Cold and a supressed storm on the gulf coast! It's just an op run, but there's nothing else going on the next 10-15 days anyway
 
Arcc said:
metwannabe said:
Storm5 said:
a67d7284c9f5d754a9575a6ba0461ed4.jpg
746c419cb76a2ff39f60ea1c9a4caa64.jpg


Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Pac ridge, east coast trough possible energy undercutting that ridge....what's not to love.  Seems it was about this frame prior to our last winter storm that the signs started showing up.  Looking great moving forward.  

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Depends. That may produce or be a massive teade. You are flooding NA with Pacific air and effectively locking the Arctic. That is super marginal.
Click to expand...
Could be at first but eventually the epo ridge should flex and deliver the Arctic.

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snaowstud said:
Tarheel1 said:
Things about to get exciting, like that Clemson game the other day!? Hope the players on the field end up being like Clemson players and not that other team! :)
6z GFS = glory
Click to expand...
What "glory" are you seeing in the 6z GFS?
Click to expand...
The end of the run! Cold is in the East, supressed precip along the gulf coast!
 
Tarheel1 said:
snaowstud said:
Tarheel1 said:
Things about to get exciting, like that Clemson game the other day!? Hope the players on the field end up being like Clemson players and not that other team! :)
6z GFS = glory
Click to expand...
What "glory" are you seeing in the 6z GFS?
Click to expand...
The end of the run! Cold is in the East, supressed precip along the gulf coast!
Click to expand...

That's waaay to far out. You should only get excited about the pattern if it repeats the next 12 runs in the same time frame.  :D
 
Hey everyone. We will likely be upgrading our server today. Shouldn't last very long. Then we will have some big announcements coming! :D
 
Shawn said:
Hey everyone. We will likely be upgrading our server today. Shouldn't last very long. Then we will have some big announcements coming! :D
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I can't wait to hear those big announcements!

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