Pattern January Discussion

[GaWx]

Lol, the 18Z GFS still has -11F for tomorrow morning's low at Greensboro, NC. What is that model smoking?

The low this morning at GSO was a very cold +6F, but that still was nowhere near the recent GFS progs in the insane -11 to -12 range meaning misses of 17F to 18F too cold! The miss the night before was 11F too cold.

At GSP, the low this morning was near +17F vs GFS progs of -1F. So, the miss this morning there was ~18F too cold! Yesterday morning's miss was 20 F too cold!

Moral of the story: Be very wary of a strong cold bias of GFS lows over substantial snowcover with good radiational cooling conditions being assumed. Expect it to be far too cold in many cases and you'd probably be right.

I honestly expected quite a few below 0 readings in NC this morning. It goes to show just how hard it really is to have negative readings in the south.

 Good point indeed! Getting single digits in the south is hard enough.

 

[Metwannabe]

Lol, the 18Z GFS still has -11F for tomorrow morning's low at Greensboro, NC. What is that model smoking?

The low this morning at GSO was a very cold +6F, but that still was nowhere near the recent GFS progs in the insane -11 to -12 range meaning misses of 17F to 18F too cold! The miss the night before was 11F too cold.

At GSP, the low this morning was near +17F vs GFS progs of -1F. So, the miss this morning there was ~18F too cold! Yesterday morning's miss was 20 F too cold!

Moral of the story: Be very wary of a strong cold bias of GFS lows over substantial snowcover with good radiational cooling conditions being assumed. Expect it to be far too cold in many cases and you'd probably be right.

I honestly expected quite a few below 0 readings in NC this morning. It goes to show just how hard it really is to have negative readings in the south.

Well for it's worth my  personal station had -4 and the app on my phone which uses data from a weather station located at an elementary school in Roanoke Rapids had 0 but the official low out at the Halifax-Northampton Regional Airport was 5.  Emporia, VA which is about 25 miles due north of me reported an official reading of -6.....  so there was some 0 to neg numbers close by.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

wow, if TWC is correct then after tonight, it won't even get below 40 degrees at night for at least 2 more weeks. Could tonight be the last freeze of the season ? I also find it interesting that TWC is going with near 70 in Dallas on Saturday and the NWS is going with 55. What's the deal with that ?

 

[dsaur]

The low this morning at GSO was a very cold +6F, but that still was nowhere near the recent GFS progs in the insane -11 to -12 range meaning misses of 17F to 18F too cold! The miss the night before was 11F too cold.

At GSP, the low this morning was near +17F vs GFS progs of -1F. So, the miss this morning there was ~18F too cold! Yesterday morning's miss was 20 F too cold!

Moral of the story: Be very wary of a strong cold bias of GFS lows over substantial snowcover with good radiational cooling conditions being assumed. Expect it to be far too cold in many cases and you'd probably be right.

I honestly expected quite a few below 0 readings in NC this morning. It goes to show just how hard it really is to have negative readings in the south.

 Good point indeed! Getting single digits in the south is hard enough.

It makes the last few years  impressive, getting down below 10 here. Wonder if I'll see it again this year? It got pretty cold the last few nights, so it's a good start. T

 

[ForsythSnow]

wow, if TWC is correct then after tonight, it won't even get below 40 degrees at night for at least 2 more weeks. Could tonight be the last freeze of the season ? I also find it interesting that TWC is going with near 70 in Dallas on Saturday and the NWS is going with 55. What's the deal with that ?

Doubt it. We usually go from one extreme to another, as we just had extreme warmth to extreme cold to now extreme warmth again. It could be very well possible we go back down again later on sharply.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

wow, if TWC is correct then after tonight, it won't even get below 40 degrees at night for at least 2 more weeks. Could tonight be the last freeze of the season ? I also find it interesting that TWC is going with near 70 in Dallas on Saturday and the NWS is going with 55. What's the deal with that ?

Doubt it. We usually go from one extreme to another, as we just had extreme warmth to extreme cold to now extreme warmth again. It could be very well possible we go back down again later on sharply.

The one thing I've noticed is that it seems like extreme warmth has more staying power than extreme cold. It can easily be well above normal for 2 weeks straight but having more than 3 or 4 days of well below normal is pretty hard to come by.

 

[accu35]

wow, if TWC is correct then after tonight, it won't even get below 40 degrees at night for at least 2 more weeks. Could tonight be the last freeze of the season ? I also find it interesting that TWC is going with near 70 in Dallas on Saturday and the NWS is going with 55. What's the deal with that ?

I don't think that's your last freeze of the season, lol. It's just first week of January. I wouldn't book 100%on the LR as it most likely will change. Fab Feb will save us

 

[SoutheastRidge]

wow, if TWC is correct then after tonight, it won't even get below 40 degrees at night for at least 2 more weeks. Could tonight be the last freeze of the season ? I also find it interesting that TWC is going with near 70 in Dallas on Saturday and the NWS is going with 55. What's the deal with that ?

I don't think that's your last freeze of the season, lol. It's just first week of January. I wouldn't book 100%on the LR as it most likely will change. Fab Feb will save us

Well, it's actually the second week of January but I was kinda joking. I think we will see a few freezes in Feb. But unless the pattern changes in Feb, it looks like this may end up being another warm winter.

 

[tennessee storm]

wow, if TWC is correct then after tonight, it won't even get below 40 degrees at night for at least 2 more weeks. Could tonight be the last freeze of the season ? I also find it interesting that TWC is going with near 70 in Dallas on Saturday and the NWS is going with 55. What's the deal with that ?

the TWC pretty much forecast off the euro model...

 

[dsaur]

This has been a year for abrupt turn arounds. 70 plus days without a drop here, then more than 13 inches in the next month and a half down here. I wouldn't expect this heat to be locked in, and warm weather sets up cold and snow, more often than not in the south. It was in the 60's here and two days later it was 33 and rain, lol. It's the south, it's always gets some warmer than we want it in winter, but it still gets real cold in spells. T

 

[ForsythSnow]

wow, if TWC is correct then after tonight, it won't even get below 40 degrees at night for at least 2 more weeks. Could tonight be the last freeze of the season ? I also find it interesting that TWC is going with near 70 in Dallas on Saturday and the NWS is going with 55. What's the deal with that ?

the TWC pretty much forecast off the euro model...

I think it varies sometimes. I have seen them change their forecast based off of one or so GFS runs. However, I think they use a blend of them.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

This has been a year for abrupt turn arounds.  70 plus days without a drop here, then more than 13 inches in the next month and a half down here.  I wouldn't expect this heat to be locked in, and warm weather sets up cold and snow, more often than not in the south.  It was in the 60's here and two days later it was 33 and rain, lol.  It's  the south, it's always gets some warmer than we want it in winter, but it still gets real cold in spells.  T

Honestly i'm kinda glad it doesn't stay cold all winter. I am looking forward to the 60s this week !

 

[Shawn]

Asking here since it's more active:

Have the majority of the bugs gone away and is the site running okay for everyone?

 

[whatalife]

Asking here since it's more active:

Have the majority of the bugs gone away and is the site running okay for everyone?

It's working well for me.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[olhausen]

no one wants to talk about late next weekend for areas to our west.


ice storm city

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

I was going to upload an image of the ice they are showing, then saw the site was back up, then forgot. Here it is.

Worst spot is 1.8" of ice. Imagine if that played out as even half.

What is more impressive are the temps and the high behind that. The 18Z GFS has a 1053 high in the Midwest, with -30 temps.

one inch of ice. na i think ill pass on that

This has been a year for abrupt turn arounds.  70 plus days without a drop here, then more than 13 inches in the next month and a half down here.  I wouldn't expect this heat to be locked in, and warm weather sets up cold and snow, more often than not in the south.  It was in the 60's here and two days later it was 33 and rain, lol.  It's  the south, it's always gets some warmer than we want it in winter, but it still gets real cold in spells.  T

Honestly i'm kinda glad it doesn't stay cold all winter. I am looking forward to the 60s this week !

Asking here since it's more active:

Have the majority of the bugs gone away and is the site running okay for everyone?

Everything seems to be running good. The only thing I noticed is I can't quote peoples post by using the quote button. The reply button works for quotes but it seems I end up quoting more then just the post I'm trying to quote. This only happens when I'm not using the site through Tapatalk.

 

[Shawn]

Yeah, on browser when you click quote, it "saves it" and you have to click the "Quote these posts now" link under the box on the quick reply form to load them into it. It's not the best format, but it works. I used to have it disabled, but seems people wanted it.

Anyways, good to hear the Host Gator page is a thing of the past, and people can see posts come up immediately. During the domain name server change, things were a bit chaotic for a day or two.

 

[ATLwxfan]

wow, if TWC is correct then after tonight, it won't even get below 40 degrees at night for at least 2 more weeks. Could tonight be the last freeze of the season ? I also find it interesting that TWC is going with near 70 in Dallas on Saturday and the NWS is going with 55. What's the deal with that ?

Last freeze of the season? Come on man.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[SoutheastRidge]

wow, if TWC is correct then after tonight, it won't even get below 40 degrees at night for at least 2 more weeks. Could tonight be the last freeze of the season ? I also find it interesting that TWC is going with near 70 in Dallas on Saturday and the NWS is going with 55. What's the deal with that ?

Last freeze of the season? Come on man.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Well the last freeze in ATL a few years ago was in early February so you never know.

 

[ATLwxfan]

wow, if TWC is correct then after tonight, it won't even get below 40 degrees at night for at least 2 more weeks. Could tonight be the last freeze of the season ? I also find it interesting that TWC is going with near 70 in Dallas on Saturday and the NWS is going with 55. What's the deal with that ?

Last freeze of the season? Come on man.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Well the last freeze in ATL a few years ago was in early February so you never know.

Only 6 times since 1878 has the last freeze been before March 1. Exactly 0 times has that been in January. It would be unprecedented.

http://www.weather.gov/images/ffc/last_spring_freeze.png


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Last freeze of the season? Come on man.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Well the last freeze in ATL a few years ago was in early February so you never know.

Only 6 times since 1878 has the last freeze been before March 1.  Exactly 0 times has that been in January.  It would be unprecedented.

http://www.weather.gov/images/ffc/last_spring_freeze.png


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

We are kinda living in unprecedented times in terms of weather so honestly nothing would surprise me. Also it looks like that map only goes to 2010 ?