-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern January Discussion
- Thread starter Storm5
- Start date
- Status
Storm5
Member
haven't had time to look yet. that's good news Larry . Sounds like we are on trackGaWx said:
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Storm5
Member
wow the 12z eps looks really good . there is actually really good model agreement now as we roll forward for a return to colder weather . Lots to consider, can we get the the STJ involved? How long will the pattern hold ? Wildcard is the PNA, if it comes to life we could have some real fun.
I'm still on the fence about the sustainability of the pattern . I for sure don't see any longterm cold pattern locking in. still feel like it's going to be a quick window and that's fine with me.
January 26th - February 12th seems to be our window at this point.
Fun times ahead
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
I'm still on the fence about the sustainability of the pattern . I for sure don't see any longterm cold pattern locking in. still feel like it's going to be a quick window and that's fine with me.
January 26th - February 12th seems to be our window at this point.
Fun times ahead
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
Just sucks that we can't get blocking. Or we are just going to have 2-3 days cold shots, but we could time one out like this past weekend! With the long term set up looking more Nino-like, with split flow possibilities, would really love to have blocking actually materialize!Storm5 said:
whatalife
Moderator
Storm5 said:
I would agree that given the setup we have 2-3 wks of a good setup and after that winter may be over in the SE but we'll see.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
VegasEagle
Member
Shawn said:
I am ready for it!
What is the exciting news ?
Temps surging into 60's for next 7 days in SE TN. Cloudy and spotty rain. & little sun.
Storm5 said:
Yep, and we can now add the 18Z GEFS, which has similar pattern change timing to the 12Z GEFS, if not a little faster though not as fast as the 12Z EPS.
Just to give an idea of the change per the 18Z GEFS: 850's average a whopping +8C to +9C now through 1/23 for Birmingham-ATL-AHN-GSP-Charlotte-RDU corridor. Then they fall to 0C 1/25-1/27 (end of run, when E US trough firmly in place). That represents about a 15F drop, which is quite a clearcut signal considering we're talking ensemble mean here as well as being pretty far out in time.
So, in summary, change is very likely a coming for the last week of January but not before we have a pretty long run of some very pleasant wx dominating. It is hard to beat the ups and downs of a typical southern winter!
There are some good things in the works. They should start trickling in soonSoutheastRidge said:
Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Personally, I don't mind relatively long breaks in the cold. I would think that constant cold for months would get a little old.GaWx said:
Storm5
Member
honestly at this point we will have to just take our chances with timing which isn't anything new with how the winters have gone over the past few years .Tarheel1 said:
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Golf7070
Member
SD, do you think it will be another transient type pattern setting up or does this one have merit with it or isn't too early to know for sure? I know I've heard talk about a little strat warming and things changing in pacific but wasn't sure if that would be enough to shake things up compared to what's been happening so far. I personally don't want another transient setup because it's tough, esp in the south. I'm rooting for a different setup compared to what we have had so far.SD said:There are some good things in the works. They should start trickling in soonSoutheastRidge said:
Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
whatalife
Moderator
Starting to get a little excited for the period of Jan 25ish-Feb 12ish. Looks like some possible fun and games.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I think that we will transition to a colder pattern in the 10-15 day period. The ridge/above normal heights in East Canada will play a big role. I noticed the euro control developed a Rex block in this area on the 12z run which seems a little extreme. All things considered if we can see the pacific jet retract and get some pacific help we could get a decent sustained period of cold. I will say I don't think it's impossible to think we are tracking a threat in about 2 weeksGolf7070 said:SD, do you think it will be another transient type pattern setting up or does this one have merit with it or isn't too early to know for sure? I know I've heard talk about a little strat warming and things changing in pacific but wasn't sure if that would be enough to shake things up compared to what's been happening so far. I personally don't want another transient setup because it's tough, esp in the south. I'm rooting for a different setup compared to what we have had so far.SD said:There are some good things in the works. They should start trickling in soonSoutheastRidge said:
Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Yep really want to slow the pac jet. Looking near the Aleutians to the goa in about days 7-10whatalife said:
Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Well the last time you guys predicted we would enter a good period you were right. I remember people in December saying Jan 5-10 was a good period so I'm trusting you are right this time when you say late Jan and early Feb is another good period.
whatalife
Moderator
SoutheastRidge said:
We certainly have a lot of model (ensemble) agreement for the upcoming timeframe we are talking about.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I mean I'm sure it's possible things can change between now and then but it's certainly nice to have some agreement in the models. Let's all just enjoy these next 2 weeks and then hopefully we get a boardwide major snowstorm.whatalife said:
BillT
Member
the upper air pattern in my opinion is the key factor for snow chances in the SE, you need to have the COLD to get snow and the upper air controls where that cold air goes......late month looks favorable in the upper air.....details are impossible to know but it can be known that to get snow COLD is required.
A -NAO and a +PNA is the best favorable pattern for good snow storms. The NAO should trend negative and the PNA should trend positive for late month. The systems that come up from the southern stream is the systems we need to watch. Or even watch out for the subtropical jet that could bring overrunning.
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Models aren't looking too bad from a long-range ensemble perspective.
About our big things coming up...
- For one, I can already say we will be moving to a very very fast server soon. In other words, no more lagging problems or website going down during events!
In even bigger news, we have some really special things up our sleeves that will make people say "really? how?". We don't want to announce that quite yet. But we have confirmation and it's going to be quite awesome & unique! We may need your help with it actually. Lets get the new server up and we will get back to you on it.
About our big things coming up...
- For one, I can already say we will be moving to a very very fast server soon. In other words, no more lagging problems or website going down during events!
In even bigger news, we have some really special things up our sleeves that will make people say "really? how?". We don't want to announce that quite yet. But we have confirmation and it's going to be quite awesome & unique! We may need your help with it actually.
Lets get the new server up and we will get back to you on it.Sounds very exciting, can't wait for the new fast server. We won't have to worry about the server failing on us anymore. I'll help out on whatever this new thing will be. Can't wait to find out of what it is.Shawn said:Models aren't looking too bad from a long-range ensemble perspective.
About our big things coming up...
- For one, I can already say we will be moving to a very very fast server soon. In other words, no more lagging problems or website going down during events!
In even bigger news, we have some really special things up our sleeves that will make people say "really? how?". We don't want to announce that quite yet. But we have confirmation and it's going to be quite awesome & unique! We may need your help with it actually.
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
NorthGAWinterWx said:Sounds very exciting, can't wait for the new fast server. We won't have to worry about the server failing on us anymore. I'll help out on whatever this new thing will be. Can't wait to find out of what it is.Shawn said:Models aren't looking too bad from a long-range ensemble perspective.
About our big things coming up...
- For one, I can already say we will be moving to a very very fast server soon. In other words, no more lagging problems or website going down during events!
In even bigger news, we have some really special things up our sleeves that will make people say "really? how?". We don't want to announce that quite yet. But we have confirmation and it's going to be quite awesome & unique! We may need your help with it actually.
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
In actuality this all should start to unfold in less than 2 weeks. We will be working with the server this weekend. The amazing parts are very close.
VegasEagle
Member
Shawn said:Models aren't looking too bad from a long-range ensemble perspective.
About our big things coming up...
- For one, I can already say we will be moving to a very very fast server soon. In other words, no more lagging problems or website going down during events!
In even bigger news, we have some really special things up our sleeves that will make people say "really? how?". We don't want to announce that quite yet. But we have confirmation and it's going to be quite awesome & unique! We may need your help with it actually.
Sign me up! I will be glad to help
Oh good, I'm glad we're having a taste of spring and no major active storms while this will be going on. When the new server comes online, will I have to update everything again on my profile? You may want to start a thread up about the changes coming if you haven't already and add in there about the new thing. (I don't know about the new thing coming lol)Shawn said:NorthGAWinterWx said:Sounds very exciting, can't wait for the new fast server. We won't have to worry about the server failing on us anymore. I'll help out on whatever this new thing will be. Can't wait to find out of what it is.Shawn said:Models aren't looking too bad from a long-range ensemble perspective.
About our big things coming up...
- For one, I can already say we will be moving to a very very fast server soon. In other words, no more lagging problems or website going down during events!
In even bigger news, we have some really special things up our sleeves that will make people say "really? how?". We don't want to announce that quite yet. But we have confirmation and it's going to be quite awesome & unique! We may need your help with it actually.
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
In actuality this all should start to unfold in less than 2 weeks. We will be working with the server this weekend. The amazing parts are very close.
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
NorthGAWinterWx said:Oh good, I'm glad we're having a taste of spring and no major active storms while this will be going on. When the new server comes online, will I have to update everything again on my profile? You may want to start a thread up about the changes coming if you haven't already and add in there about the new thing. (I don't know about the new thing coming lol)Shawn said:NorthGAWinterWx said:
In actuality this all should start to unfold in less than 2 weeks. We will be working with the server this weekend. The amazing parts are very close.
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
No more updates needed. The reason for the problems before is because we grew too fast! We were in a spot where we could either let the site stay offline or relaunch and have something working for the "current event". We decided to get the site back up and working again for the current event. This time, it will work out much better.
If everything goes right, this site will work and behave just like it is right now for everyone. No more re-registrations, new posts, new threads. I'm confident we will have it running right. Making sure before the switch!
We are forced to move servers to get better reliability because of what we are about to introduce over here. Weather fans will love it!
whatalife
Moderator
Please take w/a grain of salt as this picture is at hour 384 on the 00z GFS and I like where our pattern is headed.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
ItsClimateChange
Member
Hi guys, looking forward to keeping up with the flow of remaining winter & winters to come with y'all. Now if i could just get my old 3G phone to pull up the site i'll be set.
0z GFS, yes I know this isn't from the ensemble but the OP has been showing the colder pattern change on each of it's runs lately. Still looking good for late month. GFS showing system after system out in the Pacific. Some of those systems should make their way down into the southern stream. I'm feeling confident that we will have cold wintry days ahead after the 20th. By the way, where is everyone? We got winter weather to discuss here lol.
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
whatalife
Moderator
Shawn said:
I will be enjoying them this weekend for sure.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I say enjoy them because if modeling is right, the first half of Feb at the least will be rocking for many in the Southeast! I am wearing shorts right now, and I am sick! That's not normal. But I think it was Wilkesboro that said there will be a slingshot effect. It will come... sooner than later.
whatalife
Moderator
Shawn said:
That would be a great add on.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The cold is too far out in fantasy land for people to get too excited about yet. Plus people need a break from this last storm.
- Status