• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

Updated call map for this event. Feeling pretty confident that most of us east of the mountains in NC will see some snow/sleet at some point in this event.

I think the north-central Blue ridge jackpots w/ >6" on eastern facing slopes, 2-5" ish for @BIG FROSTY & Birdman.

1-2" is probably a good call in the triad, could see areas just NW of Greensboro sneaking 3-4". North-central Charlotte metro, central piedmont, and areas just NW of Raleigh probably will see at least a light dusting of snow/sleet accumulation on the backend and start out as a wintry mix of wet snow, sleet, and rain before eventually changing to sleet and probably snow on the backend. For Raleigh & pts SE in the coastal plain this is mostly a rain event, might briefly start out as a mix before going to rain. Expecting lots of trace-dusting amounts from the backend thump down here, could see a few spots seeing more than that, afraid to go much higher than a 0.5" given uncertainties in the banding, crappier low-level thermals, and ground temps that would melt some of the initial snow/sleet, especially if it's not falling hard enough.
January 8-9 2021 NC Forecast Snowmap2.jpg
 
I think i'll chase tomorrow. Will get off at noon and head North. Goal will be to try to catch the back end band & see if I can intercept an area of snow that wasn't calling for it. Should be an interesting dynamic part of the system as it's pulling away.
 
At least for my area the NAM is running too high for my current temps. 3K by 2 degrees and the regular NAM by 5.

Edit: most recent HRRR is too warm by 3 degrees and RGEM by 3 as well.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Updated call map for this event. Feeling pretty confident that most of us east of the mountains in NC will see some snow/sleet at some point in this event.

I think the north-central Blue ridge jackpots w/ >6" on eastern facing slopes, 2-5" ish for @BIG FROSTY & Birdman.

1-2" is probably a good call in the triad, could see areas just NW of Greensboro sneaking 3-4". North-central Charlotte metro, central piedmont, and areas just NW of Raleigh probably will see at least a light dusting of snow/sleet accumulation on the backend and start out as a wintry mix of wet snow, sleet, and rain before eventually changing to sleet and probably snow on the backend. For Raleigh & pts SE in the coastal plain this is mostly a rain event, might briefly start out as a mix before going to rain. Expecting lots of trace-dusting amounts from the backend thump down here, could see a few spots seeing more than that, afraid to go much higher than a 0.5" given uncertainties in the banding, crappier low-level thermals, and ground temps that would melt some of the initial snow/sleet, especially if it's not falling hard enough.
View attachment 63935
Click to expand...
I'm in 3-6 range. Great map
 
Leaving CHS heading NW tonight. Gonna try and find a bigger city that will see more accumulations and get some traffic footage there tomorrow morning...and maybe again tomorrow evening. Hopefully will get some footage... After that, it will be about time to head towards our next system by Sunday. I like this potential back to back. ❄❄
 
Looks like they brined the main roads here in Durham County. A little surprising. We don’t even have a WWA (yet).
 
superjames1992 said:
Honestly, even for areas that see a few inches of snow they can probably get by with WWAs. Impacts should be fairly minimal given wet ground, and marginal surface temps. I’m not sure even 3” will really stick to roadways.
Click to expand...

Nah, the roads will be fine. Much like the Feb 2013 event. It was ripping fatties and ended up with around 3-4 inches. Beautiful wet snow! Every tree was coated white.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
That’s probably the hrrr selling sleet as snow
But this is interesting, is we do crash the column temporarily, there might be a big quick burst on the front side with huge chicken feathersView attachment 63950View attachment 63952
Click to expand...

Dumb question based on most modeling but is it even remotely possible that if we crash the column enough with heavy precip rates- that we could stay frozen throughout the majority of the event?
 
ryan1234 said:
Dumb question based on most modeling but is it even remotely possible that if we crash the column enough with heavy precip rates- that we could stay frozen throughout the majority of the event?
Click to expand...
This chance increases as you head towards I-40, very unlikely around CLT
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This chance increases as you head towards I-40, very unlikely around CLT
Click to expand...
Agreed maybe the far NW piedmont and some of the foothills can hang on long enough to stay mostly snow but S to SE winds between 750 and 800 are going to try to push the warm nose into there as well. Some of the soundings around Charlotte and points north are interesting, you have a well defined warm nose but then many are near or just below freezing below the warm nose to the surface, not sure if that would be enough for IP or rain.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top