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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

Looks like we need a stronger upper level low, and one that remains closed off if we want it to be that far south, deeper the ULL = the colder the air is aloft and the more forcing you get
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
The nam does this in the long range no need to panic .. we always see the Nam fill in as we get closer .. 3km is also going to be interesting to watch the next couple days
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I have to cautiously agree. I have seen plenty of NAM runs look anemic compared to globals. Even the two snows I've had this year the long range nam was anemic.

Doesn't mean this storm WILL come in wetter but atleast this solution falls into the NAMs known biases
 
The NAM still pretty for the upstate at least


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It’s a combination of things that effect this run, 1. it’s that piece of energy in Canada 2. also the upstream shortwave digging a bit more around Colorado which collapses the ridge and has a response by allowing a weaker ULL, this is something I alluded to a few days ago as those little shortwaves have thrown things complete out of balance with systems this winter 98A64C96-0B85-4F67-ADCD-D215D6FBD343.gif
 
Jessy89 said:
The NAM still pretty for the upstate at least


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It’s not very often you see western upstate looking good. This will change again and again


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I do a lot of lurking these days. Just my .02. The EURO and EPS family have consistently been the leaders for this threat. The EURO has consistently shown the general same idea for the last 5 runs now. The 12km NAM has supported that same idea once or twice in the long range.

If I were to hang my hat on a model for this ULL even I'd have to say I'd lean to the EURO for this one. Although we sometimes see the Euro and gfs "meet in the middle" as I like to say. But the new GFS supporting the EURO is further evidence in its favor. And now the OP GFS is also close to the EURO.

No need to panic over a long range NAM run. We have overwhelming evidence of a fairly widespread winter event.

In fact, I think I would rather have the NAM fail us in the long range then go bonkers lol.
 
Using the NAM out towards the end of its range is somewhat of a fool’s bargain, anyways. It’s great with temp profiles closer in, though of course.

Would I be noting this if we had gotten a good ‘ole fashioned Happy Hour NAMing? Probably not. ?
 
The GFS is going the same things the NAM is, but i think the NAM is definitely underdoing precipitation stillC9C03A1C-896D-4523-849A-BB59D3D011CD.gif
 
The differences here is laughable at hour 48, you have a strung out piece of upper level energy bar salt closed off on the NAM at this hour vs a closed off low on the ICON which is better 2FE42D61-010C-4600-9CDD-3182046DE371.png9F154DD0-FE36-460E-B80C-26120F0B3D15.png
 
RGEM is solid
sn10_acc.us_ma.png
 
By Wed. I will have to buy the NAM. Until then, lets hope it improves. Not sure I could even counter-argue with the GFS/NAM tag team. I mean, they aren't the Road Warriors or Rock N Roll Express, but they are better than the Bushwackers.
 
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