For a backside deform further NW, you want a icon like solution where it’s still not to unraveled, the NAM just a weaksauce af the whole time 
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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!
- Thread starter Ollie Williams
- Start date
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- Tags
- winter
RAH keeps hopes alive for really everybody in central NC:
Models and their ensembles are in good agreement with the track of
the system for the end of the week, however large differences exist
for the system early next week. Given the aforementioned pattern,
expect dry weather and near normal temperatures for Thursday, then
precipitation Thursday night through Friday night, dry weather for
the weekend, and then additional precipitation on Monday through
early Tuesday. Temperatures will range from the mid to upper 30s in
the northern Piedmont to the low 40s across southern central NC when
rain begins Thursday night, then as the profile cools a rain/snow
mix is expected across most of the Piedmont, with the best chances
of frozen precipitation north of the I-85 corridor. As the storm
exits the region Friday night, temperatures will lower enough for a
rain/snow mix across most of central NC. Given the profile is so
close to freezing and surface temperatures will likely remain above
freezing, any small accumulations should be limited to elevated
surfaces. There is one possibility for higher snowfall accumulations
where banded snowfall develops or precipitation rates increase. This
could be enough for a few inches of snowfall to accumulate, however
this would be isolated and most areas that do see accumulations
should only have a tenth or two of snow. Liquid precipitation totals
have slightly lowered with the latest forecast, with around one-half
inch expected near the SC border and one-quarter inch near the VA
border.
Models and their ensembles are in good agreement with the track of
the system for the end of the week, however large differences exist
for the system early next week. Given the aforementioned pattern,
expect dry weather and near normal temperatures for Thursday, then
precipitation Thursday night through Friday night, dry weather for
the weekend, and then additional precipitation on Monday through
early Tuesday. Temperatures will range from the mid to upper 30s in
the northern Piedmont to the low 40s across southern central NC when
rain begins Thursday night, then as the profile cools a rain/snow
mix is expected across most of the Piedmont, with the best chances
of frozen precipitation north of the I-85 corridor. As the storm
exits the region Friday night, temperatures will lower enough for a
rain/snow mix across most of central NC. Given the profile is so
close to freezing and surface temperatures will likely remain above
freezing, any small accumulations should be limited to elevated
surfaces. There is one possibility for higher snowfall accumulations
where banded snowfall develops or precipitation rates increase. This
could be enough for a few inches of snowfall to accumulate, however
this would be isolated and most areas that do see accumulations
should only have a tenth or two of snow. Liquid precipitation totals
have slightly lowered with the latest forecast, with around one-half
inch expected near the SC border and one-quarter inch near the VA
border.
That’s a good ULL track for the E TN/W NC mountains on the ICON, but not for central NC. We need that at least another hundred miles SW, I think.
EDIT: I mean SE!
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GSP mentions there could be a narrow strip of sleet/freezing rain
It’s trash for snow on the front but that’s a solid look for backside snow
iGRXY
Member
GFS slightly southwest at 15
iGRXY
Member
It's already closed off by 21 and slightly south still lolol
The icon tried at the last second to get something going along and east of 95. I don't think it's very different from the euro
North
let me get my umbrella ready
Better than the NAM so far 
If you love snow, you’ll hate this run of the GFS
Eww 
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
And of course WRAL posts the chances for snow Friday are increasing.
past 2 days trends on the gfs. precip not as expansive.
iGRXY
Member
Weatherbell doesn't look that bad from 9z on.
One of those setups where it’s going to be ripping fatties a couple hundred feet above your head. Might have to fly my drone up to get in on the action.
Maybe that nice ol deform band trying to get going ? I’ve accepted that front side snow is unlikely 
