Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

[iGRXY]

I don't really care for Sref plumes at all but they're up to 2.5" here which was a big increase from the previous run and is usually telling for the upcoming nam.

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

Looks like GSP's first call is outView attachment 63136

That looks spot on to me with current guidance. I'm very hesitant to say accumulating snow down to 85. I can see flakes flying there but not accumulating. I would have discounted the long range NAM and figured it would fold by tomorrow. But thats hard to do with the Euro in its camp. So let's see where this goes.

 

[iGRXY]

NAM has a negative tilt at 39 and the ULL is south of 12z.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Warmer at H85 tho, don’t know why, kinda gives me 06z vibes but we’ll see

 

[iGRXY]

NAM is slightly south still at 48 and is running due east

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Don’t know if I like this run.

 

[iGRXY]

Don’t know if I like this run.

ULL movement is still due east at 57 in eastern central alabama. Lets see where she goes.

 

[Tarheel1]

“Mainly north of 85”

can’t wait to hear that on the 5 o’clock news

That’s got TR written all over it!

 

[iGRXY]

850s and 925s are better in the upstate at 60.

 

[tramadoc]

Yeah Euro had 999mb just off Hatteras, with the cape and lightning maps @Myfrotho704_ posted you can see it was close to bombing out. Licking my chops haha. @tramadoc might be interested in this too
@Shaggy @Downeastnc @WeatherNC the whole downeast crew

One can only hope and dream.

 

[iGRXY]

Through 60 the ULL is step for step with the 12z as far as location goes. About 20 - 30 miles south of ATL.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Oh no,
Classic miller A dry slot ?

 

[iGRXY]

I think we are about to have an incoming on the NAM

 

[cyclogent]

4th consecutive 12km NAM run with accumulating snowfall in the valleys of East TN. that certainly bodes well for much of NC

 

[Myfrotho704_]

What a disaster, that leaves a sour taste, looks like we need the ULL further north to generate precip in the first place ?

 

[iGRXY]

It was looking good and then the moisture just decided to say nevermind and disappear. Western Upstate (West of 26) got nailed that run.

 

[iGRXY]

The track was perfect. Just south of columbia by about 20 miles. The moisture just literally disappeared

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The ULL opened up, which is disastrous

 

[packfan98]

What a disaster, that leaves a sour taste, looks like we need the ULL further north to generate precip in the first place ?View attachment 63164

I don't think our area has been dryslotted for the past three years. It will be interesting to see if it fills in on subsequent runs. I can see this having an area of drizzle to the north with a swath of snow further south where there are better dynamics.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

The ULL opened up, which is disastrous

Seen that on a lot of runs today. The trend is in.