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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

Lowtown said:
I’m kinda surprised RAH is still going with 1” for W-S/GSO as the “most likely” scenario. Virtually all guidance shows a warning-level accumulation. They’re the pros, but it seems like there’s a big bust potential there.
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You can't buy into the maps showing the accumulations you are seeing. Obviously if the temperature was colder I would agree but looks like a good snow flying around event with grass and trees accumulating and slushy roads. Any storm can always have a big bust potential but we have seen this same song and dance many times. As a snow and ice contractor I have seen this alot. I am sure if things change then they will adjust their thoughts
 
Bsud said:
My bet is GSP issues at the very minimum a WWA for upstate this afternoon.

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From Anderson and Union and north. WSW north of hwy 11 in Oconee , Pickens, and Greenville maybe.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Reminds me a little bit of Feb 2013 tbh evolution-wise. Big difference is this time we just won't have quite the CAPE to support the kind of convective rates we saw then but still could easily pop an inch or so.

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Backend stuff fires up right on the lee side of the mountains/upstate area. Some people are going to be in for a big surprise on the backside of this holds true.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Backend stuff fires up right on the lee side of the mountains/upstate area. Some people are going to be in for a big surprise on the backside of this holds true.
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Yep. Feb 2013 was some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen here. Got a quick 2-3 inches in what seemed to be an hour.
 
Was really looking like a decent chance at a dusting to maybe an inch around here now i don’t think that’s the case
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
Was really looking like a decent chance at a dusting to maybe an inch around here now i don’t think that’s the case
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Just curious, why are you throwing in the towel? Sure, it could go either way but you are close enough that I wouldn't give up with a ULL situation.
 
DixieBlizzard said:
Just curious, why are you throwing in the towel? Sure, it could go either way but you are close enough that I wouldn't give up with a ULL situation.
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2 words: Warm nose. Best case is we see rate-driven snow for a long enough duration to put that down but that rate-driven snow isn't looking too good right now.
 
Oconeexman said:
Yep its a good group!
On a weather note GSP is looking to issue or expand advisories and watches soon from what I've heard for the upstate and Ne Ga
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Of course all of the current ones are "one county away" lol. however, based on what I saw seen on the models, I would not be surprised for an advisory to be issued here. looks to be a very close all and cut off between the rain/snow line. the cut off is currently a little south of the WSW
 
KyloG said:
Meso's agree on the PTI region as a region to watch for possible heavy snow...along with western NC.

Danville to GSO area looks like a good spot to chase.

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I think the best accums east of the mtns will be NW of the Triad even taking these models verbatim. Slightly more favorable ground temps, sfc temps, and weaker warm nose aloft in the extreme NW piedmont also encourages better snow-liquid ratios & less sleet not to mention the higher elevation as you get NW will encourage some very modest orographic ascent in the early-middle parts of the storm.
 
DixieBlizzard said:
Just curious, why are you throwing in the towel? Sure, it could go either way but you are close enough that I wouldn't give up with a ULL situation.
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The HRRR was my biggest hope and it keeps us mostly rain. Like forsythsnow said though if we can get good rates who knows. It’s not over I’m just not as confident as i was last night
 
DixieBlizzard said:
@ForsythSnow Is this Cumming (12z Nam)... ;)

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In all seriousness, being in that proximity, even with the warm nose considered (modeled), the ULL's have a mind of their own. You guys are not far from 1200', correct?
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I actually live at exactly 1200' and am in the north-central part of the county. My main concern is rates and until I see it on radar and see the CC line I don't have much hope for more than a quick heavy burst at the very end and that's it.
 
ForsythSnow said:
2 words: Warm nose. Best case is we see rate-driven snow for a long enough duration to put that down but that rate-driven snow isn't looking too good right now.
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ForsythSnow said:
I actually live at exactly 1200' and am in the north-central part of the county. My main concern is rates and until I see it on radar and see the CC line I don't have much hope for more than a quick heavy burst at the very end and that's it.
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Well, good luck. We may all need it but I just have an inclination that this may over-perform, especially in your area.
 
This feels like one of those systems where the local NWS offices will be spitting out last-minute winter storm warnings/advisories. While local mets scramble to change their forecasts as well. Luckily, I don't think roads will be an issue outside the mountains. Which is good because I have yet to see one DOT truck around.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Reminds me a little bit of Feb 2013 tbh evolution-wise. Big difference is this time we just won't have quite the CAPE to support the kind of convective rates we saw then but still could easily pop an inch or so.

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Heavy snow over JH house in Ft Inn! We toss
 
NWS NDFD forecast snowfall. I generally agree w/ this overall. I think an inch or two is probably a good call for now in the Triad, bigger amounts to the NW in the far NW piedmont.

ndfd-nc-snow_48hr-0215200.png
 
Does today's weather pre-nightfall have much of an impact on tomorrow's chances?
 
Guys, I would discount the globals this close and rely on the NAM for a more accurate representation. Especially the 3Km Nam which has a much higher resolution than the 12Km. It picks up the potential warm nose much better and it would be a 6-7 to 1 ratio of Sn instead of 10/1. I think one of the sweet spots could be Wlikesboro to GSO and the other in the SW mountains. Sorry to say that there will only be very minor accumulations from Burlington South and East until you get to NE NC where they could have a nice back end thump
 
ryan1234 said:
This feels like one of those systems where the local NWS offices will be spitting out last-minute winter storm warnings/advisories. While local mets scramble to change their forecasts as well. Luckily, I don't think roads will be an issue outside the mountains. Which is good because I have yet to see one DOT truck around.
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Honestly, even for areas that see a few inches of snow they can probably get by with WWAs. Impacts should be fairly minimal given wet ground, and marginal surface temps. I’m not sure even 3” will really stick to roadways.
 
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