Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

[Avalanche]

I like the look of starting out as rain and changing over to snow. That way we don't have to worry about virga

Lol!!

 

[Ethan80963]

18z GEFS

 

[Avalanche]

As a snowchaser, this thing is not consolidated at all. Highlands has been a good area in every run however.

 

[crawford76]

72 hours out and the models start going wonky, back and forth, trading solutions. Seems like this happens almost all the time with winter storm threats here.

It never fails! Almost seems encouraging now haha

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Doubt it’s that far south, but it’s definitely trying to show that backside band

 

[Snownut]

Going by Kuchera I could see the Northern upstate getting 1-2" out of Fri system. Monday could be a Much bigger storm with more of the Board in play.

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[Myfrotho704_]

note the Backside CCB band signal somewhere, if the NAM jumps on board over the next day, I’ll be sold on a band as the system is exiting for areas East

 

[Jessy89]

Going by Kuchera I could see the Northern upstate getting 1-2" out of Fri system. Monday could be a Much bigger storm with more of the Board in play.

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What’s your thoughts on the no or little snow hole in Pickens and oconee counties? Gfs favors ne upstate while nam favors nw upstate.


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[Myfrotho704_]

You can clearly see at at 700mb on the GEFS

 

[Metwannabe]

I'd feel really good if I lived along the NV/VA border rn.

Me too ?

 

[Snownut]

What’s your thoughts on the no or little snow hole in Pickens and oconee counties? Gfs favors ne upstate while nam favors nw upstate.


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Just have to wait till tomorrow and see if they come into Agreement. But in these type setups I would favor the NAM and RGEM. They are pretty could in these situations

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[NorthGaWinter4]

 

[iGRXY]

What’s your thoughts on the no or little snow hole in Pickens and oconee counties? Gfs favors ne upstate while nam favors nw upstate.


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I wouldn’t really say the Nam favors the nw upstate. That was the only model with that output. Honestly that would’ve been an upstate crush job had the wave not opened up at the last minute. The odds of that scenario happening is very very unlikely.

 

[Snownut]

View attachment 63225

Upstate only sees That much If it closes off. I'd cut those high totals in half. Safe to say upstate see 1-2"

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[NCSNOW]

18z GFS,Para GFS,RGEM, Gefs,EPS,12z Euro All Winter storm Warning Criteria Greensboro

 

[SNOWMANN]

Here’s what I’m going with for now, note this is the chance of snow falling, I’m not gonna get burned by this one and say the chance of accumulating snow yet, but here’s what I think, the further NW/Towards mountains you go, the better chance of snow, I have that yellow circle because there’s a signal but plenty of uncertainty on a backside band feature, until the NAM bites, I don’t really reflect that View attachment 63231

Drop the blue line along the border from henderson along the blue ridge back to the smokies and its perfect!

 

[EastAtlwx]

Here’s what I’m going with for now, note this is the chance of snow falling, I’m not gonna get burned by this one and say the chance of accumulating snow yet, but here’s what I think, the further NW/Towards mountains you go, the better chance of snow, I have that yellow circle because there’s a signal but plenty of uncertainty on a backside band feature, until the NAM bites, I don’t really reflect that View attachment 63231

This is a pretty good map.. the only difference I would make is extending the 70-90% and 50-70% southward toward GA/SC boundaries to include macon, Jackson, Transylvania, and Henderson counties... those areas have pretty high elevation and tend to do pretty well with these types of systems.. NWS GSP also highlights these areas doing pretty well for this system; they actually have the highest snowfall totals here on their first take maps

 

[Ollie Williams]

18z GFS,Para GFS,RGEM, Gefs,EPS,12z Euro All Winter storm Warning Criteria Greensboro

Don't take totals at face value. With diurnal heating, warm sfc, and soil temps, I would cut those totals into 1/3 or 1/2. More advisory totals.

 

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

Here’s what I’m going with for now, note this is the chance of snow falling, I’m not gonna get burned by this one and say the chance of accumulating snow yet, but here’s what I think, the further NW/Towards mountains you go, the better chance of snow, I have that yellow circle because there’s a signal but plenty of uncertainty on a backside band feature, until the NAM bites, I don’t really reflect that View attachment 63231

You gonna get burned if you keep putting the southern mountains in one of your lower percentage zones despite being the bullseye on nearly every model. Highlands about to make a believer outta you. ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This is a pretty good map.. the only difference I would make is extending the 70-90% and 50-70% southward toward GA/SC boundaries to include macon, Jackson, Transylvania, and Henderson counties... those areas have pretty high elevation and tend to do pretty well with these types of systems.. NWS GSP also highlights these areas doing pretty well for this system; they actually have the highest snowfall totals here on their first take maps

Yea I agree, mistake on my part