• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

Seems like these deformation bands are always a crap shoot with regards to where they set up and how long they last that the modeling often doesn’t predict them well, but early every model is putting it right over the Triad or thereabouts and parking it there for a while, so I’d have to feel good if I were there (relative to people outside the mountains and foothills, anyways). Us Triangle folks are going to have to hope the modeling is wrong and it doesn’t cut out before it moves further east.
 
Precip shield looks further north on the Nam's. The placement of the low did not appear to trend NW though. Probably just a more expansive precip shield to help those VA folks.
 
I’m not qualified to do this, so don’t take this too seriously, but here’s my predictions for fun.

Fayetteville: T-dusting
Rockingham: T-dusting
Raleigh: T-0.5”
Durham: T-1”
Greensboro: 1-3”
Roxboro: 1-3”
Salisbury: 1-3”
Charlotte: T-1”
Wilkesboro: 2-4”
Hickory: 1-3”
Roanoke: 2-4”
Fancy Gap: 3-6”
Boone: 4-8”
Asheville: 3-6”
Hendersonville: 3-6”
Spartanburg: T-0.5”
Greenville, SC: T-dusting

Probably will see 8-12”+ in the higher elevations and ski resorts.

I also think there’s some boom/bust potential for the Piedmont if the ULL banding favors any one spot for longer than expected.
 
I got very nervous watching the 12K nam as the soundings were awful in the upstate until lunchtime but the 3K nam was much colder. For example: the NAM has a 2-3 degree warm nose at 12z where as the 3K has it at or below freezing. Same at 15z. The NAMS are off by as much as 3-4 degrees aloft. But you'd much rather have the 3k on your side with the soundings.
 
You do have to laugh, if the "big cities" in the NE had any shot at this, Bastardi and Weather Bell would have had 4 posts up already with 2-3 videos. His last post or video for this one was yesterday! :D:D:D:D
 
MichaelJ said:
You do have to laugh, if the "big cities" in the NE had any shot at this, Bastardi and Weather Bell would have had 4 posts up already with 2-3 videos. His last post or video for this one was yesterday! :D:D:D:D
Click to expand...
Very true, many NE folks were thinking this was gonna trend towards them but the red flag was the suppressive 50/50 like feature near SE Canada/shitload of blocking and weakness under
 
The area of the piedmont from Mocksville to Statesville has fared well before in these type scenarios. Wouldn't surprise me if they did better than their surrounding areas.
 
Webberweather53 said:
NAM also finally looks more realistic w/ its depiction of snow in the mountains of southern VA

The real heavy banding pivots right over the blue ridge near the NC-VA border.

View attachment 64015
Click to expand...
50DB1E86-4727-46BE-A2D8-162F9CF64ED4.png
have to say that stall and pivot is looking good down this way too. Banding just sits over areas for multiple hours.
 
I see lots of mixed precip over my backyard (as usual) and some maps that indicated lots of sleet. For some reason, I'm not thinking there will be tons of sleet. Usually those setups are when we are below freezing at the surface and that pesky warm nose makes those wonderful 10:1 snow maps look stupid. Because we will be so warm this time and where the SkewT charts are above freezing, I would tend to favor rain or mangled snowflakes when it's not snowing. It doesn't look like there would be much refreezing of those raindrops on the way down. I could be totally wrong though. Anyone else have any thoughts on getting tons of sleet with this setup?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top