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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

I’m not trying to say that soil temperatures are never important, but I do think sometimes we put too much weight on them. This pictures is taken from the streey In front of my house on 4/2/2019. We had 2.5 inches of snow accumulate that morning between 9-11am. This is what happened despite the previous 5 days having temperatures in the 60s with a late March and early April sun angle and the lowest the temperature got while the snow was falling was 33 degrees, so the soil temperature when this started was probably at least in the lower 50s. As of this morning soil temperatures in the NC Piedmont were mostly in the lower 40s and most areas will be below freezing the next couple nights. If a deform comes through on Friday like some models have suggested, soil temperatures won’t be an issue if the rates are there.
 

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Chazwin said:
I’m not trying to say that soil temperatures are never important, but I do think sometimes we put too much weight on them. This pictures is taken from the streey In front of my house on 4/2/2019. We had 2.5 inches of snow accumulate that morning between 9-11am. This is what happened despite the previous 5 days having temperatures in the 60s with a late March and early April sun angle and the lowest the temperature got while the snow was falling was 33 degrees, so the soil temperature when this started was probably at least in the lower 50s. As of this morning soil temperatures in the NC Piedmont were mostly in the lower 40s and most areas will be below freezing the next couple nights. If a deform comes through on Friday like some models have suggested, soil temperatures won’t be an issue if the rates are there.
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You had 2.5" accumulate but i bet if soil temps had been lower you would have had 5" !
 
packfan98 said:
Yeah, this is starting to get real. I still want all of the models and ensembles on board before I go crazy. There are still some that completely whiff.
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If this was the GFS and two days ago it would be a different story. But most of the runs have been better and better as we get closer, and the Euro showing this three days out is a big deal.
 
Avalanche said:
As a snowchaser, this thing is not consolidated at all. Highlands has been a good area in every run however.
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Hi, I like to chase snow too, strongly agree there is limited amplification of H5-7 once it turns the corner. It’s a soft tilt at best vs late hard right hook.
 
Chazwin said:
I’m not trying to say that soil temperatures are never important, but I do think sometimes we put too much weight on them. This pictures is taken from the streey In front of my house on 4/2/2019. We had 2.5 inches of snow accumulate that morning between 9-11am. This is what happened despite the previous 5 days having temperatures in the 60s with a late March and early April sun angle and the lowest the temperature got while the snow was falling was 33 degrees, so the soil temperature when this started was probably at least in the lower 50s. As of this morning soil temperatures in the NC Piedmont were mostly in the lower 40s and most areas will be below freezing the next couple nights. If a deform comes through on Friday like some models have suggested, soil temperatures won’t be an issue if the rates are there.
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This is why I said earlier that for areas that will get the heaviest snow, that soil temps are irrelevant. Like seriously out of all the things to be worried about when it comes to this storm, soil temps aren't one of them.
 
Now I’m all nervous about the 18z EPS. I guess I’m all in now. If we can get that solid deform band to produce, it’s much more favorable to getting a more uniform snow map and more folks will get in on the good stuff as the system moves out from west to east. Those hit or miss dynamic driven snow maps are not ideal unless you luck out.
 
packfan98 said:
Now I’m all nervous about the 18z EPS. I guess I’m all in now. If we can get that solid deform band to produce, it’s much more favorable to getting a more uniform snow map and more folks will get in on the good stuff as the system moves out from west to east. Those hit or miss dynamic driven snow maps are not ideal unless you luck out.
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My concern is we find some way to orient the band west to east instead of more north south so the majority of us just watch a 30 mile wide band get pummeled
 
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