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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

Nick_boynton_ said:
Why so unlikely? With the amount of forcing there is could that by chance create a line that cools the atmosphere enough for a thump??? I mean I’ve seen what rates can do sometimes could that not happen here?
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Cold air just isn't here initially imo I'd like to see 850s of about -2 to -4C or so in front of this storm to give us a little buffer to work w/ to get a front-end thump. The backside burst of snow/sleet is very much legit imo and has legs.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Despite the grim look on the front end-middle part of this storm that'll be dominated by warm advection, I do actually feel a lot better about the chances for accumulating moderate-heavy snow/sleet on the backend of this storm than I did yesterday or this morning in central NC. An inch or two is very much on the table imo just need to iron out some details on precisely where and how much
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That’s honestly what I feel the most comfortable with, is changing over on the backside, any front end stuff is a bonus imo around the Piedmont
 
BHS1975 said:
Would be nice to have enough cold air to give us a cushion.


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Yeah no kidding even if we could sneak out a handful of degrees cooler in the mid levels it would change the first couple of hours for us at least
 
The 3Km run of 850 temps don't make sense, -5 in W-S but only -1 in GSO?? Talk about a sharp cut off....
 
Webberweather53 said:
12km NAM is showing wet snow verbatim in central NC this run...

View attachment 63602

BUT the max temps in the column between the sfc and 500mb are +0-1C (green shading). If the warm nose is literally any stronger whatsoever than forecast, you're getting cold rain & sleet instead of wet snow & this snow is probably concrete and mixing w/ sleet verbatim given this look so your ratios are generously 4-5:1.

View attachment 63601
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If there’s one wintry weather situation we tend to overperform with, it’s front-end thumps before changing over. But we also tend to have warm noses overperform, so...

It will also be sad to watch any miraculous snow that does happen to fall with a front end thump get washed away by the ensuing rain.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Nam pivots a solid band thru !View attachment 63603View attachment 63604
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This is going to be the key for areas south of I-40 and east of I-77 to get more than just some token flakes IMO, and I’m glad the NAM is showing as we come into its best range. If that deform band can pivot through those areas as the coastal is beginning to deepen, you can see a period of maybe 3 hours of very intense rates. Also if you look at the 850s by this time they are already cooling to -3 to -5c which would give you a better ratio than whatever would fall with a frontogentic band at the beginning.
 
smast16 said:
Forsyth and Guilford as well from RAH. WUT is HAPPENING!?!?!
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It’s just a Watch, though, so they don’t need super high confidence for it. Plus, when it comes time for a Warning/Advisory, they can always opt for a WWA, which I would think the Triad will have enough wintry weather for at least (I mean RAH throws out a WWA for basically any wintry weather at all, so it wouldn’t take much).
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Im surprised 1-2" is considered Watch criteria in Winston Salem and Greensboro. Sounds like advisory level ?
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It’s not warning criteria, but you don’t need that for a Watch. Remember, an Advisory is technically an upgrade over a Watch.

Here’s the Watch message, BTW:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
319 PM EST Wed Jan 6 2021

...Heavy Wet Snow Possible Across the Triad Late Thursday night through
Friday...

.A storm system moving across the region will create a wintry mix
with periods of heavy wet snow at times late Thursday night
through Friday. Most areas will see snowfall accumulations around
one to two inches, however isolated areas could see higher
amounts. Hazardous travel conditions are possible.

NCZ021-022-038-070515-
/O.NEW.KRAH.WS.A.0001.210108T0600Z-210109T0300Z/
Forsyth-Guilford-Davidson-
Including the cities of Winston-Salem, Greensboro, High Point,
Lexington, and Thomasville
319 PM EST Wed Jan 6 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to
2 inches with isolated areas to 3 inches possible.

* WHERE...Forsyth, Guilford and Davidson Counties.

* WHEN...From late Thursday night through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

JJT
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