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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

really encouraged with the agreement on the band that should come thru friday afternoon, should be fun to be under it as it rolls through!
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Webberweather53 said:
Despite the grim look on the front end-middle part of this storm that'll be dominated by warm advection, I do actually feel a lot better about the chances for accumulating moderate-heavy snow/sleet on the backend of this storm than I did yesterday or this morning in central NC. An inch or two is very much on the table imo just need to iron out some details on precisely where and how much
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Why is that? Just a matter of colder air for the backend?
 
Brick Tamland said:
Why is that? Just a matter of colder air for the backend?
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I mean it's just a mesoscale wrinkle that's very difficult to forecast more than several hours in advance &/or the morning or night before I'd say. I'm concerned the warm nose will be stronger than forecast and hold on longer than the models expect even once the cold advection really ramps up. This stronger initial warm nose could cut down on the lateral extent of snow/sleet and totals on the back end, and also would mean potential for more sleet over snow too in many areas.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I mean it's just a mesoscale wrinkle that's very difficult to forecast more than several hours in advance &/or the morning or night before I'd say. I'm concerned the warm nose will be stronger than forecast and hold on longer than the models expect even once the cold advection really ramps up. This stronger initial warm nose could cut down on the lateral extent of snow/sleet and totals on the back end, and also would mean potential for more sleet over snow too in many areas.
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Have a feeling whatever will fall whether it’s sleet/snow will be quite heavy on the back side, those mid level lapse rates under that thing are impressive, just hope we can filter in cold correctly on the back side, because I’ve seen cases where the warm nose sticks around unexpectedly, and you get a sleet bomb basically as you just said
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Have a feeling whatever will fall whether it’s sleet/snow will be quite heavy on the back side, those mid level lapse rates under that thing are impressive, just hope we can filter in cold correctly on the back side, because I’ve seen cases where the warm nose sticks around unexpectedly, and you get a sleet bomb basically as you just said
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Yeah I have a feeling that for folks SE of the Triad this is more likely to be a sleet bomb than snow unless we also get some precip from a trailing wave on Saturday. Sleet ratios are about 2x-2.5x less vs really wet snow which would really cut down on accumulations. Many could end up getting 0.3-0.4" QPF on the back end and still get nowhere close to cracking an inch of snow/sleet accum because it's so compact and inefficient at accumulating and will have to overcome warm, wet soils (which are harder to cool than warm, dry ones) plus above freezing air temps melting the sleet that falls from above
 
Here’s my second call, note I basically have all variables in here (boom/bust) that’s why I including a trace as a possibility for most of the Piedmont (if WAA goes boomy boom boom in birdman terms)
And the reason why I also have 1-2inches of snow/sleet as a possibility is because 1. The outside chance of a burst of snow in the beginning (which is quite unlikely unless we manage to cool off aloft before the event) and 2. A possible/more likely backside burst of snow/sleet as the low departs which is far more likely, there may also be some patchy ZR around the triad if rain mixes in around 32 degrees, I’d look at the low side at the SE portion and the middle ground towards I-40 , note this will change, and quite honestly I may be a little to aggressive here, meso models should be interesting A303C14F-2B1B-4499-A87F-0548B39D7C90.jpeg
 
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