Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

[SD]

towards the middle it trended stronger with the warm nose, dang View attachment 63597View attachment 63598

Better precip=more waa. What a dangerous web we weave

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Nam pivots a solid band thru !

 

[Ollie Williams]

I'm guessing this is the RPM. Looks likely IMO.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I'm guessing this is the RPM. Looks likely IMO.

That backside band ?

 

[Webberweather53]

3km NAM is much more realistic than the 12km imo and shows a stronger warm nose on Friday morning w/ mostly cold rain & sleet outside of the foothills and mountains.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Of course the 3km NAM was a complete weenie run for N GA. Some of the soundings might be a few degrees above freezing at the surface but the rates that are in the area would easily break the surface temps down, not to mention it shows a good hour or 2 of heavy snow.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

—><—?

 

[Webberweather53]

3km NAM's warm nose is much stronger than the 12km's near the onset of this event. I'd lean very heavily towards the 3km NAM's depiction here. +2-3C max column temps like the 3km NAM shows and you're getting cold rain

12km NAM




3km NAM

 

[Myfrotho704_]

If there’s no good accum snow East of the mountains, flakes will definitely fly with stuff at the end

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

If there’s no good accum snow East of the mountains, flakes will definitely fly with stuff at the end View attachment 63614

Agreed. I don't think we will see much east of the mountains at first. But that back side looking good.

 

[smast16]

Winter storm watches hoisted for mtns/foothills/out to Davie county.

Forsyth and Guilford as well from RAH. WUT is HAPPENING!?!?!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[ryan1234]

LOL. Watching these models are giving me a headache. Good god. I don't think we will really no until game time- as always.

 

[FortMillSCWx]

—><—?View attachment 63610View attachment 63611

column collapse?

 

[jjwxman]

For RAH WFO: Also Davidson County. Randolph County being left out looks really odd. Haha. ( I may be a bit biased though)

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

It goes crazy with the dynamical cooling, front band, this is unlikely View attachment 63583View attachment 63584View attachment 63585View attachment 63582

Why so unlikely? With the amount of forcing there is could that by chance create a line that cools the atmosphere enough for a thump??? I mean I’ve seen what rates can do sometimes could that not happen here?

 

[BufordWX]

I’ll take this to the bank now please!

 

[Webberweather53]

Despite the grim look on the front end-middle part of this storm that'll be dominated by warm advection, I do actually feel a lot better about the chances for accumulating moderate-heavy snow/sleet on the backend of this storm than I did yesterday or this morning in central NC. An inch or two is very much on the table imo just need to iron out some details on precisely where and how much

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Why so unlikely? With the amount of forcing there is could that by chance create a line that cools the atmosphere enough for a thump??? I mean I’ve seen what rates can do sometimes could that not happen here?

It’s completely different from the NAM thermal wise (hrrr is much colder), and it’s worth noting it’s the long range HRRR while were in the NAMs wheelhouse, I want a hrrr solution as much as you do man, trust me, but hey the backside snow looks solid

 

[BHS1975]

Better precip=more waa. What a dangerous web we weave

Would be nice to have enough cold air to give us a cushion.


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