iGRXY
Member
GEFS doesn't support the OP. And CMC is further south at 45.
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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!
- Thread starter Ollie Williams
- Start date
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- Tags
- winter
850s are boiling on the cmc east of 77
iGRXY
Member
CMC is significantly south and stronger at 57
Tracks the 850mb low from BHM to CLT before it reforms off of the coast. suboptimal
I don't discount it, but we're looking toward the end of the NAM's range, which I almost always regard as highly suspect. It feel like it does a good job on thermals, but I usually wait till we get closer to start paying them much mind. That said, the precip on the front end and if the wave remains closed off would matter a great deal to how much snow we eventually see on the front and back ends. Getting that tongue of precip out ahead is often seen, so that may benefit us if it comes to pass and sets up in a good spot.
iGRXY
Member
850s are screaming on the CMC through 63.
iGRXY
Member
The GFS V16, NAM, GEFS, and EPS look good here. The OP do not. would much rather have the ensembles on my side
Nice to see someone in my neck of the woods. I have a gut feeling that it may be a highway 11 and north event, versus the I-85 cutoff. I live 3 miles north of Landrum of off 176
JHS
Member
A weaker version of Dec 2009. The rain/snow line is going to probably be within 20 miles of where it was with that one.
SouthSideYankee
Member
SouthSideYankee
Member
I think this will be a close call for amounts
Nomanslandva
Member
I'll hug CMC for now. Things really are all over the place but do seem to be converging. South outliers have come north and north outliers like GVS v16 have settled south. If it ends up like the CMC here, it has probably been the most steady with the placement of sensible weather. we'll see in 3 days ?
UK ??? we toss
MichaelJ
Member
I would not toss the UKMET, it does a good job generally in this time frame.If the EURO starts moving towards it, that combo is hard to beat
I was just about to post this map, lol. I hug warm models. They are right 99% of the time.
Yeah I know I was messing lol, it’s definitely a possible solution, however I’m more interested in what the NAM starts showing into tonight as it can handle frontogenic bands and stuff like that better
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
The thing is that the EURO and Icon are normally warm and less wintry as well. Haven't seen that yet
snowlover91
Member
As we get into range the 3km NAM and 12km NAM will be key to how this unfolds. I don't trust the RGEM as much since it seems to be too cold at times and globals just don't have the resolution needed to properly handle such a delicate balance between WAA and very marginal thermals.