Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Hahaha GFS folding up to the euro.
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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!
- Thread starter Ollie Williams
- Start date
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- Tags
- winter
really encouraged with the agreement on the band that should come thru friday afternoon, should be fun to be under it as it rolls through!
Improvements in SW VA on the GFS as well 
Ouch
Gave a call map a try, only area (as Webber mentioned) that I think can over perform is SW VA. Definitely could see that area getting thumping.
NoSnowATL
Member
iGRXY
Member
Not that is matters much but GFS and GFSV16 increased across much of the area.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Meanwhile, WRAL is talking about more than an inch of snow.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol so shocked.
Not
GFS finally sniffing out the warm advection which advances the precip further downstream to the NW back into the colder air. Still some room for more adjustments too
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Why is that? Just a matter of colder air for the backend?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I mean it's just a mesoscale wrinkle that's very difficult to forecast more than several hours in advance &/or the morning or night before I'd say. I'm concerned the warm nose will be stronger than forecast and hold on longer than the models expect even once the cold advection really ramps up. This stronger initial warm nose could cut down on the lateral extent of snow/sleet and totals on the back end, and also would mean potential for more sleet over snow too in many areas.
Didn't someone mention that the RGEM has a cold bias? If so, I can believe it.
Have a feeling whatever will fall whether it’s sleet/snow will be quite heavy on the back side, those mid level lapse rates under that thing are impressive, just hope we can filter in cold correctly on the back side, because I’ve seen cases where the warm nose sticks around unexpectedly, and you get a sleet bomb basically as you just said
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah I have a feeling that for folks SE of the Triad this is more likely to be a sleet bomb than snow unless we also get some precip from a trailing wave on Saturday. Sleet ratios are about 2x-2.5x less vs really wet snow which would really cut down on accumulations. Many could end up getting 0.3-0.4" QPF on the back end and still get nowhere close to cracking an inch of snow/sleet accum because it's so compact and inefficient at accumulating and will have to overcome warm, wet soils (which are harder to cool than warm, dry ones) plus above freezing air temps melting the sleet that falls from above
Nomanslandva
Member
That EURO run was tuff to see this close in but I am holding out some hope!
Your fine in this setup, tbh
Jessy89
Member
Chris justices first call map
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Oh I am extremely hopeful for you believe me haha. It’s to the point where I’m gonna be chasing up that way.
Here’s my second call, note I basically have all variables in here (boom/bust) that’s why I including a trace as a possibility for most of the Piedmont (if WAA goes boomy boom boom in birdman terms)
And the reason why I also have 1-2inches of snow/sleet as a possibility is because 1. The outside chance of a burst of snow in the beginning (which is quite unlikely unless we manage to cool off aloft before the event) and 2. A possible/more likely backside burst of snow/sleet as the low departs which is far more likely, there may also be some patchy ZR around the triad if rain mixes in around 32 degrees, I’d look at the low side at the SE portion and the middle ground towards I-40 , note this will change, and quite honestly I may be a little to aggressive here, meso models should be interesting
And the reason why I also have 1-2inches of snow/sleet as a possibility is because 1. The outside chance of a burst of snow in the beginning (which is quite unlikely unless we manage to cool off aloft before the event) and 2. A possible/more likely backside burst of snow/sleet as the low departs which is far more likely, there may also be some patchy ZR around the triad if rain mixes in around 32 degrees, I’d look at the low side at the SE portion and the middle ground towards I-40 , note this will change, and quite honestly I may be a little to aggressive here, meso models should be interesting
Nomanslandva
Member
Christiansburg or Wytheville may be better to get some of the early stuff too. But whoever gets under that NE to SW oriented band pushing NW will have some fun. Several models showing that now. HRDPS looks fun too. So Hillsville or Stewart might be jackpots. Best wishes on your chasing!
Worth noting that the RAP is headed towards reality and shifting that stuff in the front further north, it’s basically more in line with the NAM to with the backside stuff, this model is finally getting a hint 
I think Fancy Gap could be a really good spot. High elevation, but a little further south so they may get more precip to work with. Plus could they get some upslope against the edge of the mountains there?
Nomanslandva
Member
Agree, somewhere down that way should get smoked!
Avalanche
Member
Lol!! "Just in case" forecasting.
Uhhh, GSP now with accumulation possible imby?
iGRXY
Member
Another good run for the upstate on the 18z euro.
iGRXY
Member
NoSnowATL
Member
It's not a bad starting point for the airport/brier creek/wake forest areas and points northwest. It's a different world up there, my best winter in the last 10 years was when I lived in Brier Creek
Move that stuff around South Charlotte north and there’s my answer
NorthGaWinter4
Member
He’s not counting out northern burbs at all!
iGRXY
Member
This would likely be my call map on 6:1 or 7:1 ratios. Closer to 8:1 or 9:1 in WNC
I like your map. Only thing I would do differently is pull the northern half of the white east one layer of counties to take in Johnston, Wilson, Nash, edgecombe, Halifax and Northampton. Think there might be enough left in the deformation band to clip them on the way out
DadOfJax
Member
Someone there is salty....lol
Throwing some scattered light accum pockets south of 85. Jimmy like
You got the upper end forecast map?
Just saw this.... I'm back in!!!!
iGRXY
Member
One thing I’m watching right now is the RAP and HRRR 850’s and 925’s at the end of their runs (4pm tomorrow) and right now they’re 2-3 degrees colder compared to the NAM. That is at the end of their range but these are things we will have to monitor closely because those 3 degrees are the difference between it taking 6-8 hours to change over to snow and 1-3 hours which could make all the difference in the world.