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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

smast16 said:
Too warm at the surface. GFS warms the surface from 35 to 36 during the event.
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Sdm4 basically touched on this with his post. The models are having issues with the transfer of the low to the Atlantic, when the low can gain added strength and increase totals further east. The Triangle may end up being in this slight dry slot, but way too early to tell
 
sdm47 said:
Agreed. These QPF distributions look really wonky on everything but the EPS to me. Even if it's rain, it should likely be more evenly distributed than what is showing - I can only assume convective feedback issues with the low transfer to the Gulf Stream is plaguing many of these runs. The biggest thing to focus on is the H5/H7/H85/SLP tracks and attendant frontogenesis.
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Yeah the NAM dries us out in the layers either side of 850 after the initial shot of FGEN/upglide. Not really sure about that
 
The Gfs is why I’ve been saying marginal temps outside the mountains. Gfs shows that Euro showed it to.


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We're going to get a big NAM precip explosion run soon. GFS has the column such that it literally could go either way. Unless we continue to trend better, I think we'll probably see thermals look more unfavorable as we near the event. That's not set in stone in my mind, but it's how these marginal setups usually go for areas east of the mountains and nw piedmont. Yesterday, I felt like we had a solid day of really good trends. Today, we're kind of holding steady. I don't think that will cut it in the end. Need to continue to see better trends, IMO.
 
Rain Cold said:
We're going to get a big NAM precip explosion run soon. GFS has the column such that it literally could go either way. Unless we continue to trend better, I think we'll probably see thermals look more unfavorable as we near the event. That's not set in stone in my mind, but it's how these marginal setups usually go for areas east of the mountains and nw piedmont. Yesterday, I felt like we had a solid day of really good trends. Today, we're kind of holding steady. I don't think that will cut it in the end. Need to continue to see better trends, IMO.
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To that I give you this sounding from basically our backyards just before things get going on the NAM

1609863193844.png

You have to wonder if the NAM has the correct thermals here and is late on moisture arrival/upglide just how much we could do on the front end.
 
I think any accumulations for central and eastern NC will occur at the end of the storm as it starts to pull away. This does go along with what RAH mentioned last night. Almost reminds me of the 2010 Christmas storm (mini version) where you had the initial western accumulations early in the day and the eastern accumulations later once the storm transferred/strengthened off shore. Dry slot somewhere in the middle??
 
WXinCanton said:
prateptype_cat.us_ma.png
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As much as I'd like to see this pan out, I'm not believing it. I always wait to see what the short range models say about the thermal profiles before I get excited about snowfall. NAM is really good with sniffing out a warm nose.

GFS:

GFS_850Temp_NC_2021-01-05_12Z_FHr81_WB.png

NAM12K:

NAM12K_850Temp_NC_2021-01-05_12Z_FHr81_WB.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
View attachment 63008
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Thank god I’m not in Union County anymore! Getting snow there is almost impossible. It’s almost like there is a wall that blocks anything wintry to make a significant impact there. I swear I’ve seen countless times where you drive over the broader to Mecklenburg going up Independence and you can go from cold rain to snow or ice. Maybe the big decrease in elevation plays a factor?


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