Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

[DopplerWx]

 

[iGRXY]

Ends up being meh

 

[Jessy89]

Gfs is meh so far outside NC. I think NC does well even some places outside the mountains


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[Myfrotho704_]

This smells like a frontogenic thumpity thump with plenty of omega in the DGZ laying down pancakes before switching over

 

[Rain Cold]

The nam did have most of central nc starting as snow or rain quickly changing to snow
View attachment 62989

But you can see the change over and was lurking on the backside of the band. How widespread and heavy that band is will be a big key for us. If it's a thick heavy band maybe we can drop a quick half inch to 2 inches on the front and maybe out perform the cooling aloft shown on the models and hold off the warm nose for an extra hour. A change to rain almost seems certain for the middle of the event

NAM looks wonky with the slp track/placement and precip distribution. Don't get me wrong, we're getting warm-nosed. But the alleged track on the NAM is close to really good for our area. I guess in the end, we're talking about the LR NAM, so it's kinda moot anyway.

 

[DopplerWx]

 

[WXinCanton]

 

[Metwannabe]

modernweeniemodernweeniemodernweeniemodernweenie

 

[Metwannabe]

Slush balls falling from the sky

 

[WXinCanton]

 

[KyloG]

mother nature is trying

 

[DopplerWx]

i mean soundings aren't awful at 72, just warm at the surface but no awful warm nose (yet)

 

[Brick Tamland]

What causes the heavier accumulation to skip over central NC and end up farther east?

 

[sdm47]

NAM looks wonky with the slp track/placement and precip distribution. Don't get me wrong, we're getting warm-nosed. But the alleged track on the NAM is close to really good for our area. I guess in the end, we're talking about the LR NAM, so it's kinda moot anyway.

Agreed. These QPF distributions look really wonky on everything but the EPS to me. Even if it's rain, it should likely be more evenly distributed than what is showing - I can only assume convective feedback issues with the low transfer to the Gulf Stream is plaguing many of these runs. The biggest thing to focus on is the H5/H7/H85/SLP tracks and attendant frontogenesis.

 

[iGRXY]

Only thing that went wrong on the GFS was the surface temps were too warm. The track was slightly better and closer to I20, and the 925's and 850's were better.

 

[smast16]

What causes the heavier accumulation to skip over central NC and end up farther east?

Too warm at the surface. GFS warms the surface from 35 to 36 during the event.

 

[superjames1992]

I have a hard time seeing the surface being the limiting factor here (it may make accumulations tougher, but I don’t think it alone will result in rain). It rarely happens. A sneaky, unforecasted warm nose, on the other hand.....

 

[DopplerWx]

Too warm at the surface. GFS warms the surface from 35 to 36 during the event.

and gfs has less precip over the charlotte area, with sfc temps 37ish it showed mainly rain with less precip to cool the column.

 

[cyclogent]

one key difference with the GFS is it's much faster with the wrecking ball coming into Maine, so our upper low goes to poop a lot earlier

 

[iGRXY]

GFS tried to warm the surface with pretty cold 850's and 925's over head with heavy precip rolling through. That doesn't seem right at all.