Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

Really starting to hone in the southern escarpment/foothills good ole upslope

Yes it is. Should pan out good from Highlands to Hendersonville.

 

[KyloG]

I’m sitting right under the purple bullseye. Gonna be a fun night.

QPF spread for AVL still wide...would be great for you guys to get into the .8-1"+ qpf.

 

[Tarheelwx]

This will be a slopfest in most places. I'd take those 10:1 accumulation maps and probably cut them by almost half. Hope I'm wrong though.
TW

 

[Webberweather53]

We've checked most of the boxes synoptically in the Carolinas. Can't ask for a better sfc low track for folks in the NW & western piedmont and chance at some backend snow east of there. We just need some mesoscale luck

 

[iGRXY]

I get that. I’ll explain though why I don’t think it’s possible for the upstate to see 6 inches. Temps are marginal it’s possible a lot of this falls with temps in the mid 30s therefore if any accumulation does happen 1-3 inches would be a good early call. Maybe 2-4 at best. Now the mountains I’m thinking this could be a big dog.


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All of that fell in 33 degree temps so marginal isn't the right word for that run. 850's and 925's were colder as well.

 

[iGRXY]

Looks like we are getting more CAD out ahead of the ULL as well.

 

[SNOWMANN]

Anyone chasing, Marion area isnt a bad spot imo. you can catch the eastern escarpment upslope. Shuffle north or south if need be. Wosrse comes to worse just slide up in to Mt Mitchell area bordering county. Whats the road from Old fort up into Linville/Little Switzerland area?

There's several 226 on coxes creek takes u to spruce pine/burnsville and old 226 to little Switzerland I recommend coxes creek not alot of guardrails on the old road. Then there's buck creek N.C 80 one of the worst curviest roads on the east coast AAA top ten list that takes you to Mt Mitchell but the parkway to there will be closed ur best chance to get in that area is Buck creek it's an old gravel road that takes u to the parkway near the entrance of Mitchell evlevation around 5500ft. Then last is 221 that takes you to avery county sugar beach Boone ect and last but not least is peppers creek is a gravel road that takes up to the parkway were u can legally drive even if the gates are closed at 226 it's a locals back way in to drive on the parkway that dosent get plowed. And don't forget old hwy 105 22 miles of gravel through the gorge I recommend supplies and 4x4 for that route might get stranded. McDowell county in general wud be a good home base for all kinds of adventures there's a good motel at the intersection of 70 and 221/226 comfort in I believe that's were I'd stay it sits beside all major highways to any of the above destination brand new holiday inn just opened off exit 86

 

[Dunkman]

I’ll never understand how the sites have such different maps. I know it’s Kuchera v. 10:1 but Pivotal has western Guilford County with 0.0” and TT has it at like 4-6” for the 84h NAM.

 

[Brick Tamland]

here's 10:1

 

[Webberweather53]

Looks like we are getting more CAD out ahead of the ULL as well.

The only high end busts from a front-end thump when warm advection was modeled like this (Feb 12-13 2014 & Dec 2018) we had significant CAD in advance of the storm. Don't have a favorable sfc high position for that or enough cold air but would have been interesting if we did.

 

[accu35]

I'm actually excited this time around, going towards the mountains.

Notice the uplsope on the eastern apps showing up on both the Nam and Can short Range Clowns at 84. Also whats hopefully not a mini downslope into the french broad area /Asheville.

Will Asheville do good with this storm?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Oh lawd

Must. Look. Away

 

[JHS]

I get that. I’ll explain though why I don’t think it’s possible for the upstate to see 6 inches. Temps are marginal it’s possible a lot of this falls with temps in the mid 30s therefore if any accumulation does happen 1-3 inches would be a good early call. Maybe 2-4 at best. Now the mountains I’m thinking this could be a big dog.


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Someone is going to end up like I did in Feb 1989. We got at least 6-8 inches of snow to fall, but when it stopped only about 2 was left on the ground. The rest had melted.

 

[Snownut]

Well if the Nam is right, the upstate definitely is not missing out

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[Spurs up]

Must. Look. Away

you can do it i did it's not hard.

 

[iGRXY]

Even the Kuchera has a swatch of 2-5". Not saying we are getting that much but to say something isn't going to happen is ludicrous at this stage. We could end up all snow or all rain or somewhere in the middle. Could get 6 or 7" or could get none. Nothing is set and stone at all right now.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

I'm actually excited this time around, going towards the mountains.
Will Asheville do good with this storm?

I think they may have some downsloping issues out of the French broad River valley. Highlands looks like a really good spot. Elevation and south facing.

 

[SD]

Well that nam run was something. Really dislike the trend of opening up aloft

 

[sdm47]

We've checked most of the boxes synoptically in the Carolinas. Can't ask for a better sfc low track for folks in the NW & western piedmont and chance at some backend snow east of there. We just need some mesoscale luck

View attachment 62979

Yeah at this point I think we just have to get into the 3km NAM/HRRR range to figure out the mesoscale details. Front end thump and back end banding appear likely.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I think I had 2-3 column crashing events in February of last year so it’s hard for me to throw the towel in completely. My expectations are tempered but I will play this game a bit longer. At least this is getting fun again.