Better precip=more waa. What a dangerous web we weave
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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!
- Thread starter Ollie Williams
- Start date
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- Tags
- winter
Nam pivots a solid band thru !
I'm guessing this is the RPM. Looks likely IMO.
That backside band ?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
3km NAM is much more realistic than the 12km imo and shows a stronger warm nose on Friday morning w/ mostly cold rain & sleet outside of the foothills and mountains.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Of course the 3km NAM was a complete weenie run for N GA. Some of the soundings might be a few degrees above freezing at the surface but the rates that are in the area would easily break the surface temps down, not to mention it shows a good hour or 2 of heavy snow.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
3km NAM's warm nose is much stronger than the 12km's near the onset of this event. I'd lean very heavily towards the 3km NAM's depiction here. +2-3C max column temps like the 3km NAM shows and you're getting cold rain
12km NAM
3km NAM
12km NAM
3km NAM
If there’s no good accum snow East of the mountains, flakes will definitely fly with stuff at the end 
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Agreed. I don't think we will see much east of the mountains at first. But that back side looking good.
smast16
Member
Forsyth and Guilford as well from RAH. WUT is HAPPENING!?!?!
column collapse?
Why so unlikely? With the amount of forcing there is could that by chance create a line that cools the atmosphere enough for a thump??? I mean I’ve seen what rates can do sometimes could that not happen here?
BufordWX
Member
I’ll take this to the bank now please!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Despite the grim look on the front end-middle part of this storm that'll be dominated by warm advection, I do actually feel a lot better about the chances for accumulating moderate-heavy snow/sleet on the backend of this storm than I did yesterday or this morning in central NC. An inch or two is very much on the table imo just need to iron out some details on precisely where and how much
It’s completely different from the NAM thermal wise (hrrr is much colder), and it’s worth noting it’s the long range HRRR while were in the NAMs wheelhouse, I want a hrrr solution as much as you do man, trust me, but hey the backside snow looks solid
BHS1975
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Cold air just isn't here initially imo I'd like to see 850s of about -2 to -4C or so in front of this storm to give us a little buffer to work w/ to get a front-end thump. The backside burst of snow/sleet is very much legit imo and has legs.
That’s honestly what I feel the most comfortable with, is changing over on the backside, any front end stuff is a bonus imo around the Piedmont
BHS1975
Member
Yeap thats what I would expect. The SSTs are high still.
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smast16
Member
It'd be nice to have cold air to begin with, let alone "Enough" to cushion. lol
Yeah no kidding even if we could sneak out a handful of degrees cooler in the mid levels it would change the first couple of hours for us at least
BHS1975
Member
MichaelJ
Member
The 3Km run of 850 temps don't make sense, -5 in W-S but only -1 in GSO?? Talk about a sharp cut off....
If there’s one wintry weather situation we tend to overperform with, it’s front-end thumps before changing over. But we also tend to have warm noses overperform, so...
It will also be sad to watch any miraculous snow that does happen to fall with a front end thump get washed away by the ensuing rain.
This is going to be the key for areas south of I-40 and east of I-77 to get more than just some token flakes IMO, and I’m glad the NAM is showing as we come into its best range. If that deform band can pivot through those areas as the coastal is beginning to deepen, you can see a period of maybe 3 hours of very intense rates. Also if you look at the 850s by this time they are already cooling to -3 to -5c which would give you a better ratio than whatever would fall with a frontogentic band at the beginning.
It’s just a Watch, though, so they don’t need super high confidence for it. Plus, when it comes time for a Warning/Advisory, they can always opt for a WWA, which I would think the Triad will have enough wintry weather for at least (I mean RAH throws out a WWA for basically any wintry weather at all, so it wouldn’t take much).
iGRXY
Member
RGEM is a good thumping in the upstate.
Ron Burgundy
Member
Wow - surprised to see FFC so aggressive with that. Still all rain in my grid ITP but good to know it’s close!
NoSnowATL
Member
What about my area? That’s not a TWC forecast is it?
Looks like it’s from NWS FFC WFO to me.
BufordWX
Member
It’s the FFC forecast. Looks the same in your area!
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Im surprised 1-2" is considered Watch criteria in Winston Salem and Greensboro. Sounds like advisory level ?
It’s not warning criteria, but you don’t need that for a Watch. Remember, an Advisory is technically an upgrade over a Watch.
Here’s the Watch message, BTW:
WSNC
Member
Believe it's >3" in 12 hours or >4" in 24.
Icon has the right idea here imo, when it comes to snow placement, especially in VA