Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

[NCSNOW]

Its all about the exact track and not opening up while it rides west to east through the carolinas to the coast. THE EXACT TRACK Through the carolinas as it comes out of North AL,GA is the key and it has to stay closed off.

 

[sdm47]

As we get into range the 3km NAM and 12km NAM will be key to how this unfolds. I don't trust the RGEM as much since it seems to be too cold at times and globals just don't have the resolution needed to properly handle such a delicate balance between WAA and very marginal thermals.

Don't forget the HRRR too. It outperformed the NAM with the northeast storm back in December, especially around NYC where the NAM was actually too warm.

 

[iGRXY]

12z CMCE still looks great

 

[iGRXY]

View attachment 63037
12z CMCE still looks great

This is all the way through.

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

This may bite me in the ass but I'm ignoring the ensembles this close. I've been burned too many times trusting their snow footprint and amounts inside 72 hrs. I'm sticking with ops for higher resolution and of course short range models.

 

[Brick Tamland]

View attachment 63040
This is all the way through.

 

[CaryWx]

Don't forget the HRRR too. It outperformed the NAM with the northeast storm back in December, especially around NYC where the NAM was actually too warm.

The HRRR was no bueno in NC for that storm

 

[CaryWx]

I'm worried there's a lot of 'smoothing' in that CMC enscramble mean Brick. Depends on where the deform sets up. Going to be some spotty areas I'm afraid. Then some decent scores also I suppose

 

[Rain Cold]

View attachment 63040
This is all the way through.

The guide to using these snow maps in marginal situations like this is to take the axis of the heaviest snow and cut it by half and then drastically reduce amounts as you get away from that area. Pretty much all the gray shown here will end up being mixed with rain or be just a few token flakes either side of the main part of the storm.

 

[Goose88]

I found this interesting what she said about the area of low pressure.

 

[deltadog03]

Dr. NO is running..........

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

The guide to using these snow maps in marginal situations like this is to take the axis of the heaviest snow and cut it by half and then drastically reduce amounts as you get away from that area. Pretty much all the gray shown here will end up being mixed with rain or be just a few token flakes either side of the main part of the storm.

The way I’ve grown to look at it is everything below the blue will be rain and it’s even likely that the lower zones of the first shades of blue on the ensembles will also most likely be rain. Second blue shade on the ensembles usually is where the r/s line likes to set up.

 

[WeatherNC]

I may switch my location to Hendersonville NC, any thoughts?

Why would you commit to any specific location at this range? Draw yourself a box, adjust the area each day and refrain from setting up shop till the last minute.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Why would you commit to any specific location at this range? Draw yourself a box, adjust the area each day and refrain from setting up shop till the last minute.

I would book 2-3 rooms with no cancellation fee in a 50-100 mile triangle

 

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

I may switch my location to Hendersonville NC, any thoughts?

Somewhere between Hendersonville and Highlands on the US64 corridor. That's the area that seems to be showing up on all models as the bullseye. Elevation + Upslope = Your best bet.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I may switch my location to Hendersonville NC, any thoughts?

Old Edwards Inn And Spa

thank me later

 

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

I would book 2-3 rooms with no cancellation fee in a 50-100 mile triangle

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This run might be better
00z
12z

 

[iGRXY]

Euro is much more inline with the 6Z so far through 60.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Euro is much more inline with the 6Z so far through 60.

Tad bit south