Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

The way I’ve grown to look at it is everything below the blue will be rain and it’s even likely that the lower zones of the first shades of blue on the ensembles will also most likely be rain. Second blue shade on the ensembles usually is where the r/s line likes to set up.

I've always kinda went by the rule if you have a 4 inch mean you might actually see snow.

 

[iGRXY]

Snow breaking out along 85 north by Hr 69. (4am)

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wow, looks NAMish

 

[LovingGulfLows]

I've always kinda went by the rule if you have a 4 inch mean you might actually see snow.

Yeah I tend to use ensemble mean snow totals as percentage chance of seeing snow rather than actual snowfall or snow on the ground. Blue shading means you might actually see accumulating snows. Grey means there's a chance, but not great especially the lighter shades of grey.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I've always kinda went by the rule if you have a 4 inch mean you might actually see snow.

Yep. Depends on the gradient on the snowfall maps. If it’s tight around your area, lower your expectations.

 

[iGRXY]

OHHHH man she's going crazy at Hr 72. Widespread snow

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The warm nose is more relaxed vs previous runs so far as well

 

[iGRXY]

 

[iGRXY]

The warm nose is more relaxed vs previous runs so far as well

The ULL was slightly weaker as well which likely has something to do with it.

 

[ryan1234]

Wow, looks NAMish View attachment 63068

Get some higher precip rates and I bet that snow line dives even farther south.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Wow, looks NAMish View attachment 63068

That's an interesting thing to see, the Euro and NAM being on the same page. The GFS and NAM are usually together and fail together so maybe this time the NAM is onto something.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

OHHHH man she's going crazy at Hr 72. Widespread snow

Wow, looks NAMish View attachment 63068

“Mainly north of 85”

can’t wait to hear that on the 5 o’clock news

 

[Ollie Williams]

I'm really surprised that the Euro is showing that as snow. It's sleet IMHO.

 

[NCSNOW]

The 12z New GFS may not be to off the wall after all. See how close Euro clown comes to this in a few for comparison sake. EURO TRACK Is ideal.

 

[BLKeene]

12z Euro

 

[Oconeexman]

Euro and Nam look very similar on output here..thermal profiles and such. I like that team!

 

[SD]

That's an interesting thing to see, the Euro and NAM being on the same page. The GFS and NAM are usually together and fail together so maybe this time the NAM is onto something.

EE rule!!!!

 

[iGRXY]

Agree. The heaviest precip rides 85 and I think would drive the colder temps farther south.

 

[Metwannabe]

Rate driven snow islands. I'll take it, nice appetizer for the main course yet to come this month

 

[Jessy89]

12z Euro
View attachment 63076

Well if euro shows snow there’s surely a chance. Hopefully 18z gfs trends back


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