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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

I have to wonder what implications the models completely failing at surface temps will have on tomorrow through tomorrow night's event. This morning we were 6 below the low and with us running 4 below the forecast temp for the current hour and only 2 degrees above the low, could we be seeing colder air than the models have? Are there any changes in the modeling for the upper levels that have been significantly colder so far? Might be time to look at what's happening ahead of the storm.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
These soundings in that snow band support thunder snow/big rates, extreme lift aloft + steep mid level lapse rates (7C+ !) can do wonders, can this please please hold View attachment 63760View attachment 63761
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Monroe is looking about the same. This would be a good period of very intense rates with big flakes and the ability to pile up in a hurry. This is the type of band that I got under during the 2010 Christmas storm. Of the 5.4 inches I got during that storm, 4 inches fell in about 3 hours.
 
Chazwin said:
Monroe is looking about the same. This would be a good period of very intense rates with big flakes and the ability to pile up in a hurry. This is the type of band that I got under during the 2010 Christmas storm. Of the 5.4 inches I got during that storm, 4 inches fell in about 3 hours.
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If this look continues with snow under the ULL this gives me vibes to a lesser version of March 2009 type setup
 
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KyloG said:
NAM has central NC temps mostly pegged at 33F on Friday. Could be a great surprise if we see frozen but could be a lemon suck fest if have an epic cold rain.

View attachment 63764View attachment 63765
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We know that the snow maps are overdone and the warm nose will be slightly warmer than pronged. We've learned this through the years. Probably will still see some flakes fly for a little bit, though. Would be very shocked to see accums here.
 
The type of lift in that band and the fact that it's really not moving super fast you can easily see snow pile up. Rates would likely be closer to the 10:1 as the column is much colder by then and the surface is hovering near or right at freezing. Those totals these models are spitting out on the backend might be a little closer to reality than we think. Also the ULL dropped further south once it enter Georgia. If we can get one more shift of about 50 miles like that again, I think we are in business and the could get more frontend snow (even that looks okay right now).
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
If this look continues with snow under the ULL this gives me vibes to a lesser version of March 2019 type setup
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Also with that type of intensity, surface temps would probably to the 32-33 degree range which certainly would help with accumulations.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This is what I like to see, keep doing it just a little bit more, but not to much View attachment 63771View attachment 63772
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Oh hell yes. I've been tuned out the past day or so, pretty resigned to how the front end is gonna turn out (at least for Raleigh), but this deform band potential is starting to look real promising thru central and even a bit into eastern NC, to at the very least see some flakes fly.
 
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